Welcome to CalMatters, the only nonprofit newsroom devoted solely to covering issues that affect all Californians. Sign up for WhatMatters to receive the latest news and commentary on the most important issues in the Golden State.Eleven Democrats are vying to unseat Rep. Darrell Issa, a San Diego Republican, after California’s redistricting measure turned his reliably red district into a slightly blue one that will be a key swing race in next year’s midterm elections.
Rep. Mike Levin, a San Clemente Democrat, can breathe easier, as Proposition 50 carves out new boundaries that make his swing district more safely Democratic.
The new voting map reflects California’s bid to offset Texas’ effort to secure control of the House by adding five Republican seats in November. California voters approved the redistricting plan proposed in Proposition 50 by nearly 20 points in a special election this month.
Both redistricting efforts are embroiled in litigation. On Tuesday a federal court blocked Texas from using its new maps, finding that they would harm Black and Latino voters in that state. Last week the U.S. Department of Justice sued to overturn California’s maps, arguing that they unlawfully considered Latino voters in the new districts.
If California’s redistricting plan withstands that challenge, the new voting map could help Democrats flip the lone Republican seat in San Diego. The 48th Congressional District, represented by Issa, will switch from a 12-point Republican advantage to a 4-point Democratic lead, based on voter registration.
A crowd of Democrats
The more favorable odds have drawn a wide field of challengers, including Issa’s former opponent, Amar Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa in a previous version of the district in 2020, San Diego City Council Member Marni von Wilpert, and several contenders from the Coachella Valley.
The passage of the redistricting measure triggered a statewide game of musical chairs, setting in motion the chairs as well as the players.
The current 48th District covers conservative East County San Diego communities. The new district moves west and north, losing much of that backcountry and adding the North County San Diego cities of Escondido, San Marcos and Vista. It also includes ultra-liberal Palm Springs in Riverside County, where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than four to one.
Those new lines absorb part of the current 41st District in Riverside County, represented by long-standing Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. His current district will move entirely to Los Angeles and Orange County, so Calvert plans to run in the new 40th District in Riverside and Orange County against fellow Republican, Rep. Young Kim.
Meanwhile, three Coachella Valley Democrats who were among eight challengers against Calvert for his Riverside County district have now jumped into the race against Issa. Attorney Anuj Dixit, school board member Abel Chavez and entrepreneur Brandon Riker all switched gears to campaign for the new 48th District. Another Palm Springs candidate, Marc Iannarino, a Navy veteran and bartender, threw his hat in the ring. Political observers note that the Coachella Valley candidates come from a smaller and more liberal portion of the new district.
“These are three candidates who really know Palm Springs, but they’ve got to reach out to moderate, purplish voters and to know who San Diego voters are,” said Dan Rottenstreich, campaign manager for von Wilpert.
“This is not a deep blue seat,” Rottenstreich said. “This is going to be among the top five heavily contested races in the country.”
Who can win the swing race?
Von Wilpert and Campa-Najjar, the two highest profile contenders, each argue they’re the best candidate to navigate the slim partisan advantage.
Both have prominent endorsements. Former Senator Barbara Boxer, numerous state and local leaders and the Democratic women’s political action committee Emily’s List are supporting von Wilpert. A slate of congress members including San Diego Reps. Mike Levin, Scott Peters and Sara Jacobs have weighed in for Campa-Najjar.
All the challengers face a well-established incumbent for a district that – despite its partisan shift – will still be a toss-up.
Von Wilpert, a former prosecutor in the San Diego City Attorney’s office, won her city council seat in 2020, running against a Republican opponent in a conservative-leaning district, Rottenstreich said
“With these new lines, CA-48 becomes one of the most competitive races in America, and a must-win seat to flip the House,” von Wilpert said in a statement on election day. “I’m the only candidate in this race who’s proven I can win tough elections, flip red seats blue, and deliver results for working families.”
Campa-Najjar, a Navy officer and former Obama campaign official, argues that his experience running against Issa in 2020 positions him to win Democratic and independent votes in the new district.
“I see it as a rematch between me and Darrell Issa, with 10 other candidates,” he said. “I’m not running against them. I have great respect for them, but only one of us will win.”
Although he lost in 2020, Campa-Najjar said he gained a foothold in the conservative district, getting more votes than expected in the majority Republican district.
Can Issa hold his seat?
Issa has served in Congress for more than 20 years in different districts. He originally held the 49th District – now represented by Levin – from 2001 through 2019, and retired when that district became competitive. In 2020, he won his current seat, holding it for the next two terms after it was redrawn during statewide redistricting in 2021.
Issa declined to answer questions from CalMatters, but in a statement he called Proposition 50 an “unprecedented purely partisan campaign that pitted neighbor against neighbor and divided the state as never before.”
Despite that, Issa said he plans to run again: “I’m not going anywhere. I’ll continue to represent the people of California — regardless of their party or where they live.”
The general election will reflect voter’s opinions about President Donald Trump; historically the president’s party usually loses ground in the midterms. Issa, a close Trump ally who has supported the president’s policies and nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize, will have to lean into that record, Kousser said.
“He has to embrace him with his base and make the case to the middle that the Trump presidency has been good for their district,” he said.
The crowded field of Democrats could thwart some candidates in the primary, Kousser said. But it will likely benefit the party in the general election next November, forcing challengers to campaign early and gain traction with voters.
“Whoever emerges as the Democratic candidate is going to be battle-tested in that district,” he said.
A coastal swing district shifts left
The redistricting measure also shored up vulnerable Democratic seats, including Levin’s 49th District. It shifts south, adding coastal San Diego communities of La Jolla and Torrey Pines. Now 65% of the current district is in San Diego County; in the new district that climbs to 81%, Levin said.
With that come more Democratic voters, and even more left-leaning voters. The current district has a two percent margin of Democratic voter registration, which jumps to four percent under the new lines. But the Democratic advantage jumps to 12 percent when you compare the number of votes for former Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Trump in last year’s election.
That positions Levin more securely in his reelection race. He faces Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, along with two other Republicans and a non-partisan candidate.
“The southern shift of that district makes it more blue in terms of the democratic registrations, and the political leanings of the independents,” said Paul Mitchell, the political data expert who drew California’s new voting lines. “So that district for him is a big improvement.”
