S1: Welcome in San Diego , it's Jade Hindman. On today's show , the impact of war is felt around the globe , no matter how far away you live from it. We'll talk about the economic impacts in San Diego then. Kids have questions about current events. We'll hear advice on how to answer them. This is KPBS Midday Edition. Connecting our communities through conversation. As the Iran war stretches into its second week , concerns grow about and around the impact the conflict will have for the global economy. And much of that attention has been on energy prices , particularly the price of oil and gas. Here in San Diego , the average price of gas is a little over $5.30. That's nearly $0.60 higher than a week ago. Joining me now is Daniel Newmark. He is chief economist at the Policy and Innovation Center. Daniel , welcome back to Midday Edition.
S2: Thanks for having me , Jade.
S1: Glad to have you here.
S2: And , um , I know that might be a surprising answer for someone who's known to talk about dollars and cents , but there's nothing more valuable in our economy than a life. Um , our entire economy is valuable only to living people. And so the most precious , precious asset in any economy is human life. And of the seven Americans who have died as a result of the war in Iran , including Robert Marzen , who's , uh , from Sacramento. Um , you know , the 175 people were killed in an attack that affected a school , most of which were children. You know , these these are devastating impacts. And , um , any discussion of oil prices or whatever has got to follow. First , an acknowledgement that the most important thing in any economy is life.
S1: Indeed , indeed , and that the loss of life is immeasurable. Um , you know , but I want I do want to know , I mean , you know , how do you begin to to gauge , um , against that , the economic impact of war ? Yeah. Um , you know , with the loss of life , the destruction of people's homes , businesses , you know , how do you gauge that ? Yeah.
S2: I mean , it would be one thing if there were a bunch of positive economic outcomes of war to weigh against the tragedy of human. Loss of life. But the impacts of this war are also very negative from a purely dollar and cents perspective. So Iran produces 5% of the world's oil. Iran is after being attacked , um , is now retaliating against um , uh , Gulf states like Kuwait that produce even more of the world's oil. Um , and it has shut down essentially the Strait of Hormuz , which is the link between the Persian Gulf and the rest of the world. And so , uh , as a result , that's about 30% of the world's oil production that is suddenly unavailable. And the result of that is that a month ago , the price of oil was $60 a barrel , and now it's 100. And so you might think , well , okay , so oil's more expensive. Who cares ? Well , the entire economy runs on energy. So when the price of energy increases , the price of everything increases. Um , and so there's tremendous knock on effects. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. Can you talk about some of those , uh , effects.
S2: And so when energy prices go up , uh , that contributes significantly to inflation. And , of course , we're coming off of some years of high inflation where we never fully returned to , although we got very close , we never fully returned to the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2% inflation. That's the that's what we consider a good rate of inflation. Um , it's been a little bit elevated. But , you know , economists estimate that if this war were prolonged , we would accept except expect globally inflation to raise by another two percentage points. So that would double the rate of inflation over the our target , which would be really bad. Um , so that's on one side of the equation. On the other side of the equation is that when gas becomes more expensive , shipping and production become more expensive , and people have less money left over from their inflated expenses. And all of that contributes to decrease in supply of goods at any given price and decrease in demand for goods in a price. And and when that happens , we expect the economy to shrink and we expect unemployment to increase. So one way you can think about the economy is that there's this balancing act. It's like , imagine you had a seesaw with a little kid on on either side of that seesaw , right ? You've got two kids on the seesaw , and you want to make sure that they're safe. So you don't want the seesaw to get either side to get too high. And one side of that seesaw is the unemployment rate , and the other side is the inflation rate. And if the unemployment rate gets really high , well , that little kiddo is way too high up in the air. And so the Federal Reserve comes along and says , whoa , inflation rates too high. We're going to bring up interest rates , which will decrease inflation. Get that kid back down toward the ground where he's safe. But the cost of bringing down inflation is that you tend to increase unemployment. And so the fed is constantly trying to manage what they call their dual mandate , which is to keep unemployment low and to keep inflation low. And whichever one of those sides of the seesaw is higher , they're coming in to try to use interest rates to bring that side down at the cost of bringing the other side up. Right. So it's this constant balancing act. I mean , problem with increased price of oil is that it drives both inflation and unemployment up. So it's almost like you took this , the seesaw where you're trying to keep these kids safe and close to the ground , and then you put it on a ten foot pillar. Okay. Now both sides of the seesaw are dangerous. Right. So that's a problem. And it's a problem that the fed can't fix. So it becomes a really challenging issue when when energy prices go up with a potential for what's called stagflation , which is where you have both high inflation and high unemployment.
S1:
S2: But I would say the , the , the factor of concern is how long this lasts. Uh , so , you know , if it was just a couple of days or something , then that's one thing. But you know , we're now into week two and , you know , the Secretary of Defense is saying that this is going to be the highest , you know , rate of of of attacks , you know , yet today. So , you know , we don't we don't see this just disappearing tomorrow. And of course , even if the US were to stop striking and Israel would just stop striking right now , that doesn't mean that Iran is going to stop threatening the Strait of Hormuz or going to stop attacking the other oil producing states. So , you know , the question is , are we in for yet another Middle East quagmire , or is this going to be a quick thing ? That's over swiftly. And and I don't think anybody really knows the answer to that question.
S1: All right. It's something we'll continue to follow. I've been speaking with Daniel and Mark. He is chief economist at the Policy and Innovation Center. Daniel , thank you so much as always.
S2: Thanks for having me , Jake.
S1: Still to come. Kids often have questions about war , politics and the news. Coming up , we'll hear some advice on how to answer those questions. KPBS Midday Edition is back after the break. Welcome back to KPBS midday Edition. I'm Jade Hindman. You know , keeping up with the news and reality of war in the Middle East and immigration enforcement here at home. It can weigh on anyone's psyche , but for children , consuming all that devastation without guardrails can just be dangerous. Parents are tasked with a balancing act , keeping their kids aware and informed , but happy and hopeful , too. So where do you start ? Joining me with some advice is Kimberly Macias. She's a licensed professional clinical counselor and with Thrive Therapy Studio. So Kim , welcome to Midday Edition.
S3: Thank you for having me here.
S1: I'm so glad to have you here for this conversation. I mean , you work with patients age five all the way to 55. How is the news in overall state of our country affecting your clients ? I mean , what are you hearing from them ? Right.
S3: So I'm hearing a lot , especially with like , the parents and my adults , their doing scrolling , right. And they're. And especially with parents , with kids , a lot of times they're like , there's so much out there there , especially with kids with media at their hands , TikTok , Reddit , you know , all these things are consuming it. So it's really hard for parents to realize , okay , how much do my kids know and what should I be sharing with them ? What should we be talking about ? Yeah.
S1:
S3: But at the same time , they don't want to keep their children in the dark.
S1: Right ? Right. I would also imagine that it's it's difficult to sort of give context to what's happening as well , like historical context and correcting the record so that there is a a true understanding of what's happening and then not telling them too much. Right. Right.
S3: Right. Especially because what I always say that we are all born with the emotional capacity that we have as an adult , as young as like when we were born with it. So they could feel those emotions. But as our children , they're still growing and learning the vocabulary , what's going on around the world. And oftentimes that is being affected. And parents are worried and concerned about today's and age with their children learning about these things. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. Well , your mom , yourself , um , and you have two young kids. How have you struggled with this personally ? Yeah.
S3: So I have two kids who are nine and seven , so they are an eight. Like they're in school , right ? So me and my husband , we have been talking to them about a lot of the stuff that's been going on here and there. It wasn't until the shootings in Minnesota that happened earlier this year that we realized , you know what ? We really need to sit them down and have a really direct family conversations about what's going on. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. Yeah. Well , how did that go for you ? I mean , I know I have a I have a five year old and she'll ask about what she's hearing and seeing , and you can give her an answer , but if it doesn't make sense , she's going to keep asking and she's going to keep asking. So how do you how did you work with that ? Yeah.
S3: So I think it's okay to validate our kids like , hey , it may not make sense , right ? It doesn't make sense to us. It may not make sense to you , but to really focus and emphasize safety and security as parents with our kids. Right. That is our job as an adults in their lives to really emphasize , hey , there may be a lot happening in our world today that we don't have control over , but we will always make sure we have your best interest in safety in mind to keep you kids and to be able to do , you know , go to school , learn , and being kids and having us worry about those things.
S1: Yeah , yeah. I mean , how important is it to sort of reassure your children that they , you know , that that you're you're as a parent , as a guardian , you're looking out for their safety and their best interest. How important is it for them to feel safe , even in knowing so much is going on in the world. Yeah.
S3: Yeah. And , you know , we don't want to like , we don't want to lie to our children either. Right. Because nothing's certain in this world. And I think being able to kind of honor that and own that as well , like , hey , we may not have control with everything's going on and maybe some of this is very scary. You know , like , I know recently , my children , for example , they go to the school that's mostly Latinos there and with Ice and like , you know , some of their classmates are being affected by that directly. And they're seeing that and they're hearing that in the classroom. And I also hear from even some of my clients and patients that they are also similarly hearing similar things that may not directly impact them directly , but indirectly. Right. So while we can't quite tell them , like , hey , this isn't never going to happen or these fears may not ever come true. Like our job is really is to keep you safe and secure during this time. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. I mean , and , you know , we have a recent reporting by our colleague Gustavo Solis. Um , it shows that ice Arrest of children in San Diego skyrocketed last year. Tell me about the impact that's having on the psyche of children , right.
S3: Especially for our for our children. Those are their classmates , right ? That are being taken away. It may have been their friends that one day was there , the next day they weren't. And they may be confused and not quite understanding what happened , what is going on. So I do think that while for parents it does seem daunting to have these conversations with them , it is really important for them to help make meaning of their like their life and their day to day. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. So when it comes to parents of of the younger children , that younger child age group , let's say 12 and under.
S3: Right. So , you know , it's the point of saying , hey , We you know , there's a lot that's going on in the news right now. And I kind of want to know what you know about it , because especially if they're school age and they are in school , they're most likely hearing so from their peers. Right. And some of it may not be accurate and some of them may be misinformed or , you know , not truth that's going on. And they may have been building this kind of more like bigger thing in their head that's more fearful. Right ? So really being direct with them to , you know , oftentimes what I see and in my experience , um , are kids , they hear things. And it kind of grew even bigger than what is actually reality. And let's face it , what's happening right now is kind of really big and scary , but it doesn't have to be as big as a lot of these kids are building up in their heads. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. You know , and of course , kids are. Kids are known for questions. Questions , questions. What are some ways to engage with especially inquisitive kids who demand answers ? Like. Like my child. Yeah.
S3: Yeah. And again , I think we don't. Again , we don't want to gloss over anything or Geminis anything , but we want to keep things appropriate with younger kids more broad helping them , you know , again gain that vocabulary , understanding what's going on and still wanting to invite them to the table and letting them ask those questions. Right. If we as parents , noticing it's starting to maybe spiral or getting more and more into that , more fear mongering that they're like asking stuff to really stop them. Like , hey , I'm noticing that you're having a lot of these questions and fears with these things.
S1:
S3: So very common symptoms for children for anxiety. Right. It's going to be our like stomach area. They maybe feel like complaining tummy aches , maybe not eating well maybe having issues in the restroom. Right. Because that's where our freeze is activated , right ? So they're feeling really anxious and really building it up. We're noticing it there first. Right.
S1: Right. So how do you deal with that.
S3: So again we want to try to help really , really emphasize our role as parents. That is our job to help keep you feel safe and secure and for us to hold on to , you know , anything that you're concerned about and really emphasizing , hey , it is scary. And also we're keeping you safe as possible. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. Um , you know , one question some parents might have , is it ever okay to sort of gloss over , uh , the reality or even tell your , your child a lie about what's happening ? Um , tell me about that. What are the consequences of that. Yeah. Yeah.
S3: It is very tempting to lie , especially again when what we're seeing and hearing. Right. Even for us as adults , we may feel concerned and feel fear there , and we don't want to pass that on to our children. Right ? And we don't need to go into detail where our children. But I I'm always on the side of trying to be as honest with our kids as possible because , again , most likely especially if they're in school , they're hearing these things from their peers.
S1: You also do a lot of work with neurodivergent kids.
S3: And like kind of knowing the step by steps of like , hey , maybe we're going to do like a family safety plan in case something ever happens , especially if some of these things does affect them directly. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. Um , any other tips.
S3: You know , I do think the , you know , as we are here in San Diego , we are very much a military town and also a border town. Right. So I do think if you haven't had the conversation , haven't started doing , I really do encourage you all to really do have the conversation with our children ? Because you'll be surprised with how much it actually is impacting them. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. As a parent , you know , so much of the behavior we model is picked up by our kids , even if we don't realize it.
S3: Again , as I mentioned earlier , I know I was guilty of scrolling for a bit , and I do know for some of us , we do take that a little bit more , and I want to say that it is okay if we ourselves need to step away for a bit , for us to be able to get that peace for ourselves and be in a better space to really hold that space for our children as well. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. So much helpful advice here. And we're going to have more resources and support on our website at kpbs.org. That includes a list of news sites specifically geared towards kids like Dogo News and Time for kids. I've been speaking with Kimberly Macias. She is a licensed professional clinical counselor with Thrive Therapy Studio. Thank you so much.
S3: Thank you again for having me.
S1: That's our show for today.
S4: I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.
