S1: Welcome in San Diego. It's Jade Hindman on this episode of KPBS Midday Edition. The governor declared a state of emergency ahead of a potentially severe weather from a Super El Nino pattern. What you need to know about preparation and your insurance policy. This is KPBS Midday Edition. Connecting our communities through conversation. So yesterday , Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency due to the potential for a very strong or historic strength El Nino event. The declaration will ensure the state has resources to respond to things like flooding , bluff collapse , coastal erosion or landslides. So when could we start to see severe weather here and what's on the horizon for our fall and winter months? I'm joined by Alex Tardy. He's a meteorologist and founder of Weather Echo. Alex , welcome.
S2: Hey , thanks for having me on again.
S1: Glad to have you here. Also with us is Dan Cohen. He's a climate science researcher with Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego. Dan , welcome to Midday Edition. Hi.
S3: Hi. Thanks.
S1: So , Alex. Um , first off , what does the state of emergency declaration by the governor signal to you?
S2: Well , I remember back in 2015 when we were talking about a very strong El Nino developing , that a similar proclamation was made. Most of the time my understanding with weather is emergencies are declared after the fact , you know , with wildfires , with flooding , with windstorms. But in this case , because there is increasing confidence that precipitation is going to be more than usual or maybe even excessive because of the magnitude of this El Nino. Getting it done , I think , clears the way to making sure the funds and the resources are available.
S1: So , Dan , what do we know about El Nino? Is it all but a certainty? You know , we'll see impacts this fall and winter.
S3: I'm sure Alex would agree that there's no certainties , but , um , this is a a really strong event. Um , we just crossed the three degrees Celsius threshold in the central equatorial Pacific , which puts this on par with the very strongest event historically that's been observed. Um , we don't have a lot of these cases to , um , draw really firm statistical likelihoods , but , uh , a couple of our very strong previous El Ninos have had , um , pretty wet and stormy impacts , uh , in the coast of California , uh , Southern California in particular , um , there's coastal hazards as well as as , uh , the , uh , perhaps copious rainfall.
S1: Um , I mean , it's the first day of fall. When might we expect to even see some of these , these systems or weather patterns?
S3: Uh , again , this is , uh , this depends on whether or not not only upon climate , but , um , probably , uh , within a month or so , uh , we might the the window is going to start to open , but , um , I'll remind that in , in 1997 , 98 , we waited quite a while for the first symptoms of that very strong El Nino to appear. It was it was really later on in , in January. So this is , uh , one of those uncertainties that we're we're not we don't have a lot of confidence about. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. And Alex , I mean this is also one of those things that's , um , obviously drawn a lot of concern. Um , so what do you think there? State officials are anticipating , um , could happen with this system in terms of damage around California in the region?
S2: Yeah , I think when it comes to preparation , especially in a situation like this where it's an unprecedented El Nino , record breaking extreme , El Nino already developing. And as Dan said , uh , observed and still predicted for this winter , we know the atmosphere is going to be affected. We know the ocean is going to be affected. We don't know exactly how much and exactly where that's going to line up. Um , but we always want to preach to prepare for these type of situations. El Nino is kind of like overlaying an enhancement on top of what you already have. So we know our storm season is November to April. We know we get some big storms. We had them in January 2024. We know we get those storms. But what can happen with an El Nino , especially with this magnitude on the West Coast , is you just get a lot more of it and it's harder to recover , it's more saturation , it's just a greater impact from the beach to the land.
S1: Dan , from your research , what do you see as the biggest risk to our region from the potential of El Nino driven storms?
S3: Well , there's there's multiple prongs , but , um , I guess I'll , I'll emphasize that , um , our coastal , uh , region has seen in many cases , elevated sea levels during El Nino. And , um , we're expecting , uh , very high tides. King tides Around Thanksgiving , just before Christmas and in the latter part of January this year. If , um , we happen to have one of those large storms that Alex referred to that coincides with high tides , which are further elevated because of the El Nino effect. Uh , then we could get some , uh , fairly substantial coastal , uh , impacts and coastal hazards in January of 1983. Uh , there was such an event and , uh , it really caused a lot of damage up and down the California coast. For example , uh , waves crashing over the marine room in La Jolla. Uh , the Scripps Pier was damaged to the point that it it needed to be replaced. and lots of stories like that. So , um , there are certain time windows in this winter along the coast that we really have to be , uh , watchful and , uh , take , take heed , uh , those , those King Tide , uh , episodes. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. They can wreak a lot of havoc. I know , just last month , um , you know , the the train line had to be closed down because those large waves were starting to erode the , uh , the bluffs and the coastline there. Um , so you have that danger. Um , so there's so much to consider with , with those. Listen , you , Dan , you mentioned coastal impacts. You know , with El Nino , we see warmer ocean temperatures. How warm are those temperatures now historically speaking.
S3: Um , in the well , let's talk about the tropical Pacific first because that's where the , the , uh , seeds of all this , um , Originate , uh , that is 2 to 3°C above normal from the central tropical Pacific towards the coast of South America. And , um , furthermore , there's been , uh , exceptionally warm water. We've broken records , uh , several days now at the Scripps Pier , temperature logger , uh , along our coast. So we're already in a warm situation , uh , in a in a rather extensive lens of water that envelopes , uh , the , um , Mexican coast up , uh , towards central California. And , um , in any case , uh , we're likely to see , uh , warming of waters that pulses up along the coast. That's a reaction to , are part of this oceanic El Nino phenomena. So probably more of the same. And along with that , uh , heightened sea levels to , um , at least a few inches above tide predicted levels. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. And remind people why these , these warmer ocean temperatures are important for our climate.
S3: Well in the , in the tropics they're extremely important because that's where the atmosphere gathers uh heat and moisture. And El Nino is , is an example of how our ocean planet really matters as far as affecting , uh , climate and weather systems with this displaced warming that now is present in the eastern Pacific , that , uh , more often than not , uh , couples with the atmospheric circulation in the wintertime and activates the storm track that we talked about , where we get our normal delivery of winter precipitation and winter weather in California. Um , the other thing that has been going on is this warm water in the Eastern Pacific has probably , uh , encouraged and activated some of these tropical cyclones that have been occurring , uh , this year to a greater degree than , than normal. So that's another symptom of this in the summer and autumn weather. Uh , and then later we get these , uh , these winter extratropical storms that are a different sort of , uh , phenomena.
S1: Another phenomenon I keep hearing about is this Kelvin wave. What is that and how might it impact us here in San Diego? Alex , what do you know about that? Yeah.
S2: Yeah. So like Dan described , we've got two main things going on. We've got the marine heat wave , which has really been around since last year. It developed before the El Nino. And while El Nino was normal , it's normal for the ocean to , uh , move water around cold and warm and regulate itself. The El Nino is now at a magnitude that is in a size that's basically almost merging with this marine heat wave. And the way the El Nino can continue to grow is it can release some of that energy in the form of a Kelvin wave. And that literally moves west to east , west to east , hits the South America coast. And that's why you see the waters really warm , like Dan mentioned in the central and eastern part of the Pacific , where we've even got measurements close to four Celsius , which is a huge number. It's almost , you know , eight or so Fahrenheit. Um , that wave hits the coast and it moves northward and southward. We get the northward energy , it moves up the Baja , reaches the California Bight. And it's not just warm water. It doesn't just bring different type of species , but it raises the sea level so that warmer water is a little less dense. Uh , it's a it's a little deeper. And so it goes a long way to raising that sea level. And it doesn't take much when you have a king tide like Dan talked about , when you have surf and storm surge , even from a winter type storm , a couple inches makes a big difference of how much water can actually penetrate on our beach and cause impact and erosion.
S1: And Alex , I'm also I'm sure you've been tracking Hurricane Polo , and it's now a category five hurricane near Mexico's southwestern coast. What's the latest with that storm?
S2: Yeah , I think Hurricane Polo is a great example of the amount of energy going on , even outside of the El Nino region. So polo formed into a tropical storm yesterday. It's pretty much feeling the marine heat wave that I talked about separate from El Nino , but it went from a tropical storm to a category five overnight. Now I know it was predicted , but still , that is rare to see a tropical cyclone go from early stages of development to the highest level , category five. So that doesn't mean we're going to get a hurricane or we have to worry about that. But that means there's a tremendous amount of energy already occurring in the Pacific. We will feel the swell. So we're going to feel the ocean waves and swell next week when when the hurricane slowly moves northward towards the Baja tip , we're not thinking we're going to get the rain , but we're certainly going to get big surf in waves like we did with Marie. Parts of the desert southwest like New Mexico , though , could get some of that remnant moisture. And that typically means flooding in those areas.
S1: And I realize this is far from us here in San Diego , but I mean , could we see any effects at all.
S2: I think mainly the surf and the swell , which with Marie was enough , right? So we had surf of ten feet. Marie never even left the Pacific. It sent rain about an inch of rain up to LA , but it wasn't even any part of the center of the storm. It was indirectly. It brought up all kinds of monsoonal tropical moisture out ahead of it. In the case of polo , the actual center could impact parts of Mexico , Baja and even as it weakens , rapidly moving to New Mexico. But even given that trajectory and Marie's trajectory to our southwest and south , that sends a powerful piece of energy that we call a south swell right up towards our exposed beaches.
S1: Dan , quickly , before we get out of here , I just want to circle back to you any final like , advice for people in terms of preparation for what could be coming with weather?
S3: Yeah , I think this this winter it's going to be , uh , uh , important to , uh , watch the shorter range forecast because we know that there's the seeds of , um , as as Alex mentioning , uh , larger amounts of , of energy , possibly heavier storms and so forth. We already mentioned the , the coastal hazard that , um , could , could possibly be happening and , uh , together with the , uh , well predicted tides. Uh , it's it's important to pay attention there. The the other thing that we haven't touched on is the effect that , um , this El Nino could have on marine ecosystems , that warm water forms a lens , sort of a cap on the upwelling of , uh , nutrient rich waters.
S1: And and , Dan , that's that's an important aspect of it. We're going to have to leave it there and pick that conversation up another time. I've been speaking with Dan Cohen. He's a climate scientist researcher with Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego. Dan , thanks for being here.
S3: Glad to.
S1: Be here. Also , Alex Tardy , meteorologist and founder of Weather Echo. Alex , thanks to you.
S2: Thank you always.
S1: Up next , we move the conversation to your insurance policy and what kind of storm damage it could cover. KPBS Midday Edition is back after the break. Welcome back. You're listening to KPBS Midday Edition. I'm Jade Hindman. As you heard earlier , Gavin , Governor Gavin Newsom recently announced a state of emergency in preparation for a historic El Nino season. People are already bracing for possible losses and damages to their homes. So in the worst case scenario , what do you need to know about your insurance? Well , I'm joined now by Aimee Bach. She's an attorney and the executive director of United Policyholders. They're a consumer advocacy group based out of San Francisco. Amy , welcome to the show.
S4: Thanks for having me on.
S1: Glad to have you here. Before we get into any specific policies. What are some of the biggest concerns you're hearing ahead of this El Nino season?
S4: Well , the biggest one is that most people do not know that their home insurance policy excludes coverage for flooding events and don't have any protection against flood damage in terms of their insurance. Wow.
S1: Wow. So then what? Damage is typically covered under home policies and what's not.
S4: So wind driven rain is typically covered. So if the wind if the rain comes with wind and maybe the wind , you know , pulls off a shingle or siding or the rain gets in your house and falls inside instead of rises that can be covered. But if the water gets in from rising , say , under your doors or through your garage , chances are your insurance company is going to say that's rising water , that's flood , it's not covered. And we know that less than 2% of Californians carry flood insurance , a separate policy. Wow.
S1: Wow. So then an insurance quote may be in order here. How do you encourage people to start exploring flood insurance and what options are available to them?
S4: So you know , this is a of course , not a great time to be telling consumers. Now , since your home insurance has already gone up in price , you also need to buy another insurance package. Um , but the reality is we are strongly encouraging people to get a quote. So what you want to do is call the agent that you if you currently have a good agent or a broker , call them. Ask them if they are up to speed on flood insurance options. If they're not. Ask them if they can recommend somebody who is , or go online and try something like Rocket Flood. Um , or you can go directly to the National Flood Insurance Program direct quote website and get a quote and make an informed decision. Is this going to be affordable for your household? Is it something you want to spend the money on? Because it can be as cheap as 400 bucks a month , or it can be , um , in the five figures of the premium. It just really depends on where you live.
S1: So put that into perspective. For me. You spend that kind of money on the policy. How much would repairs should a flood happen cost someone?
S4: That's a great question. Most flood losses cost people anywhere between 5000 and as much as 100,000 , depending on the extent of what has to be repaired and replaced. So , you know , if you're if you've got wood floors that get warped , that can be very costly. Um , you know , just drying things out if it's minor , um , you can you can have somebody come in and pay out of pocket for somebody to bring in blowers and dryers. Um , that can be affordable. That can be something that that a homeowner can carry on their own. But if there's drywall that gets wet or wood that gets wet , um , or furnishings that get wet , um , chances are it's going to be more than the average person has cash around to pay for. And so that's why we're saying , you know , at least get a quote so that you make an informed decision. And we do know there are a couple of things homeowners can do. One is to get sandbags. Most cities and towns will give have a giveaway program this time of year. Um , where you can actually get free sandbags. You can buy them. They're not expensive. Um , and you want to if it starts to rain and it's predicted that it's going to be a pretty good rain happening , you want to put those sandbags along the base of your garage , along the base of your of your , uh , exterior doors to try to keep that rain from coming into your house.
S1: So as people look to get quotes , um , tell me , what are the main differences between the National Flood Insurance Program and private carriers? What's covered under each?
S4: So the National Flood Insurance Program does not cover your temporary rent. So. and if you want to get covered. So if you have to move out , if you lose the use of your home , you have to move out. And a National flood Insurance program , which people shortened to be Nfip and Nfip policy will not cover your temporary rent if you ask for it. You can buy coverage for your contents so your stuff , furniture , etc. clothing. But a base nfip policy really just covers the dwelling , um , and nothing else. So you really want to you want to have that conversation. You really want to find somebody to help you who really knows flood insurance. A lot of insurance agents don't. And in fact , in California , a lot of insurance agents will discourage their customers. Oh , you don't need it. That may have been true in the past. Times have changed. The new normal is where it rains. It can flood. We are getting these things called severe convective storms , which is a fancy word for a whole lot of rain falling in a short period of time that overwhelms drainage systems and can cause flooding to homes that normally would not consider themselves to be a flood risk.
S1: Any special consideration for folks who are living in , say , new housing developments?
S4: Well , look , you know , people typically , you know , if you live there are not a whole lot of mandatory flood purchase areas in California. There is a rule , if you have a mortgage through a federal bank backed bank , and you live in an area that has been officially zoned to be a flood , a high , high flood hazard zone , your mortgage company is going to make you buy it , right? But most people in California are not in a mandatory flood insurance purchase zone , right? That may change in the years ahead. More people may get zoned higher flood risk , but if you live in an area where that's just a flat area and you're not near any bodies of water. You know , flood insurance should be quite inexpensive. Now , if you live in an area where there's been a wildfire , there is an elevated risk of flooding in those areas because you have less trees and vegetation to absorb the water , and it tends to kind of run off and run downhill. So that's an extra consideration if you live in an area and if you live at the base of a hill , that's another higher risk factor that would make it more , um , smart for you to invest in flood insurance.
S1: How about flood damage to cars? I mean , is that covered under comprehensive coverage?
S4: If you have comp , that's what you need. You need to have comprehensive coverage in in your auto policy to be covered for flood damage.
S1: And , you know , you've been a consumer advocate for a long time and have helped people through other weather related disasters. How can consumers really advocate for themselves in these scenarios when their claims , you know , they might get denied.
S4: Yeah , well , number one is to be that person who take who writes things down and takes pictures. So you want to take lots of pictures , um , especially of damage , especially before anything gets moved or , you know , taken away. You want to document what happened and you want to try to understand what happened , and then you want to be able to not just understand what caused the damage. Excuse me , but what it's going to cost to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. A lot of so our main advice to people is , you know , give your insurance company a chance to do the right thing , but don't be a pushover and understand the dynamic. You have the biggest interest in making sure that what you bought , the insurance you bought is delivered , right? That the that the benefits you paid for get delivered. You want to get the most for your claim. Your insurance company has a very different objective. So we we really try to.
S1: Uh oh. I think you may have frozen on us a little bit. Um , I'll give it five seconds to see if she's able to come back. Amy , are you there? Uh , we were just getting. Okay. Amy , I can hear you again , I believe. Go ahead. I'm sorry.
S4: Oh , okay. Um , so. So what I'm saying is that United Policyholders exists to empower the insurer to help people be their own best advocate and collect the benefits that they already paid for. But you do have to be realistic as a consumer about the dynamic with an insurance company. It's not what you see on TV where the magic wand comes and everything's back. Again , it's it's think of it as a business negotiation , and prepare yourself with evidence and documentation so that you can be proactive to collect what you paid for.
S1: Are there any big mistakes that we as consumers make when dealing with insurance companies and filing claims?
S4: Well , we see a lot of people have things taken , damaged , items taken away before the insurance company has had a chance to inspect. You don't want to do that , right? You want to. Now we also see people who have minor damage filing a claim , even though it's very unlikely that it's going to be above their deductible. So we just really encourage people , if you've had a loss , go to upheld talk , get a little bit of information before you jump on the phone and make a claim , because today people are carrying higher deductibles. You do have that flood exclusion. So , you know , make sure there's a reasonable shot that you're going to get this thing covered before you go on record filing a claim , because every claim you file does , you know , could put you in a higher risk category , causing you to have to pay more , etc.. So , um , you know , this stuff is tricky. That's why we're here. Um , you know , we try to to break it down into plain English for people. And in the bottom line is , you know , insurance companies were one of the first , uh , economic powerhouses to recognize climate change. And they have been very busy nipping and tugging , nipping and tucking their water damage coverage. So you do want to be , um , a very proactive. Now , as a consumer.
S1: We so appreciate your insights. Uh , Amy Boch , executive director of United Policyholders , thank you so very much.
S4: Thanks for having me.
S1: That's our show for today. I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.
