Monday, February 10, 2014
Michael Vu, San Diego County Registrar
Vince Vasquez, Senior Policy Analyst, National University System Institute for Policy Research
2014 Mayoral Election Eve Anaylsis
Election day is tomorrow in the city of San Diego and a new report by National University System Institute for Policy Research shows a tight race between mayoral candidates Councilman David Alvarez, a Democrat, and Republican Councilman Kevin Faulconer.
The NUSIRP report shows more Democratic ballots have been cast than GOP ballots.
As of February 8, the total number of Democratic votes cast was 63,567, GOP ballots tallied at 58,492. Both parties outpace ballots returned by Decline to State voters (32,772).
Most of the votes cast in the election have been from north of Interstate 8 Council Districts, which are Republican-leaning districts says research analyst Vince Vasquez.
But Vasquez says President Barack Obama’s endorsement of Alvarez will generate voter interest.
“Due to the Obama factor, we expect more voters, particularly Democratic voters, to tune in to the election and take a closer look at the candidates.”
The report also predicts a higher voter turnout Tuesday than the November 2013 election.
“Based on the rate of absentee ballot returns NUSIRP project a 42%-45% voter turnout rate,” Vasquez said.
The turnout in the November primary was 35% according to the San Diego County Registrar of Voters.
Meanwhile, a new U-T San Diego/10News poll shows a mere one percentage point difference between the candidates.
But there are a number of undecided voters who have yet to make their choice for Mayor. The latest poll shows 7% of likely voters are undecided.
Tuesday’s winner will be sworn into office in early March and replace Bob Filner who resigned last summer amid sexual harassment allegations.
Council President Todd Gloria has served as interim Mayor since September.