S1: Welcome in San Diego. It's Andrew Bracken in for Jade Hindman today. What to expect as another rainstorm moves into the region , and a look into the progress being made at this year's UN climate conference. This is KPBS Midday Edition , connecting our communities through conversation. So it might be sunny right now , but don't put away those umbrellas just yet. San Diego County is expecting yet another rainstorm tomorrow. And here to talk about that forecast is Alex Tardy. He's a former meteorologist with the National Weather Service and founder of the company Weather Echo. He's also our resident weather expert. Alex , welcome back to Midday Edition.
S2: Hey , thanks for having me on again.
S1: Thanks for being here. So let's recap this week so far of storms. How much rain did we end up with ? Yeah.
S2: So this was a big series of storms. And let's keep in mind it's November. So we don't typically see our wettest period until December , January and February here in Southern California. So the three storms that we're going to have , because we got another one coming in , is really added up. We're already 3 to 5 times wetter than a normal November. So for example , like in my house , I normally get about an inch of rain and I've had 3.5in of rain. So with another storm coming , those numbers are just going to increase for this week. So really , really wet start for November so far.
S1: And I don't know you know you mentioned how much rain you got. I mean to me it seemed like sort of like rain was on really heavy. And then sun would come out and then rain would come back hard. What does that mean for flooding in the region ? Have we seen , you know , the impacts from that heavy rainfall this week ? Yeah.
S2: The storm we had , the big atmospheric river , one we had on Saturday. That was really the main threat in flooding because it was so widespread , so heavy at once when it came in. Everything we've seen after that has been like you described , showery , hit or miss , on and off. I've seen rainbows on Sunday. I saw rainbow yesterday. So the sun comes out , then it pours. We're catching a break now because we're reloading for the next storm that comes in late Thursday and especially Thursday night. So for flooding , the ground was really dry. We had a dry summer overall. We had a little bit of rain in October , but overall the ground was dry , so it absorbed a lot of it. But in our urban areas , we started seeing some , you know , swift runoff. So when you get in these type of patterns , you know , it really matters how much rain you get afterwards because now the ground is saturated and set.
S1: You mentioned the atmospheric river that hit over the weekend. Can you remind us what those are and what makes them , you know , unique from other storms we see here in San Diego. Yeah.
S2: Yeah. So in California particularly , we get about 50% of our storms from what we define as an atmospheric river , that is a transport of moisture from the tropics. So basically you have wind and you have tropical moisture that gets drawn into a Pacific storm. So not all storms have that like the one we had yesterday , uh , was very weak in terms of atmospheric river , the one we're going to have tomorrow , tomorrow night. Weak compared to atmospheric river standards. But in La Jolla , at the University of California , San Diego Center for Western Weather water extremes , they study these atmospheric rivers and even fly planes into them. So they're really important to our water supply , our snowpack and drought. Uh , so in California , we pay particularly close attention to them , even though they occur all over the world.
S1: So , you know , I just took a walk outside. Skies are pretty sunny right now , but it sounds like , as you mentioned , there's a new storm rolling in. What ? What should we expect ? Yeah.
S2: And this storm coming in for late Thursday and into Friday morning , it's going to be another cold one. So I know most people woke up this morning. I did , and it was cool in my house. I didn't turn my heat on , but it got down to 64 degrees. So that means snow in our mountains like a big bear. That's great. For those who are thinking , maybe I want to go up there for Thanksgiving if they can open up. Uh , this particular storm coming in , we'll slide right down along the coast Thursday night. So , believe it or not , compared to all places in California , LA and San Diego will get the most rain again out of this storm. That's about a half inch to some places. A little bit over an inch of water on top of that three , 3.5in. You know that I already got at my house.
S1: You mentioned how this is fairly unusual for for the month of November here.
S2: And that drought really started last winter. If you remember this time last year , November , December , we couldn't buy rain. Uh , we were warm. We had Santa Anna's , we had fires in LA in November. We had fires in January. So this is a complete opposite condition now that we've set up. And this is great for fire weather because we're going to see the hills green up , the fields green up , the weeds are going to pop. Uh , this greatly reduces fire weather threat , at least through the first part of the winter. Now , if we don't get another storm until January or February , we could be talking about fire weather conditions in the latter half of the winter or the spring. And right now , this looks like the last in a series of storms , but we don't want to hang it up yet because it looks like , you know , late November or early December , we potentially could get back into another storm cycle.
S1: So our water year here in California runs , you know , from October 1st through the end of September. January , February are typically the wettest months. How much rain did we get last year and what does this November putting us for the current water year ? Yeah.
S2: So you're correct. It starts October 1st. And the reason why we do that is the storm cycle in the Pacific really starts October 1st. Uh , so we really need to get in that storm cycle , especially like you've mentioned in January , February. That's where we really get the bang for the buck in these storms. So but this particular year compared to last year , we ended up about half full. So the bucket was half full between LA and San Diego. So we saw half as much precipitation about five inches of rain compared to what we should see. Um , right now , you know , we're already approaching that three inch total , and especially with another storm coming in. So it's great. And , you know , we're way above normal right now. But we've got to keep this going because it's a long winter overall. January , February. If you don't see storms in January or February , you can really all of a sudden get behind.
S1: You know , when we talk about these atmospheric rivers , talk about wildfire risk. You know , the topic of climate change is not far behind. What you know , what are these tell us about our region's changing climate right now ? Yeah.
S2: The main thing with climate change and what we're seeing , especially something tangible in California , is the extremes. So the extremes from storm to storm , but also in the winter , from winter to winter or within the winter. A few years ago , we were in drought in 2021 , and we had a really good start to the winter. Really good. December was wet. Big snows in Tahoe , record breaking snow. And then in 2022 , when the calendar year switched over , it almost didn't rain or snow again in the state from January through early March. And we got way behind , then entered into a drought that year. So these extreme periods , you know , from month to month or from season to season is really what we worry about with climate change. And then on top of that , we have warmer than average conditions throughout the entire year , the past six of ten years , or , you know , top ten warmest in Southern California. So on top of the warmth , you get more evaporation. You get longer breaks between storms. But then at the same time , when you do get a storm , they can come in a little bit stronger.
S1: I've been speaking with Alex Tardy. He's a former meteorologist with the National Weather Service and founder of the company Weather Echo. Alex , thanks so much for breaking this down for us.
S2: Oh , thank you very much.
S1: Up next , we get an update on the United Nations climate summit. Cop 30. You're listening to KPBS Midday Edition. Welcome back to KPBS Midday Edition. I'm Andrew Bracken in for Jade Hindman. The 30th United Nations Climate Summit , also known as Cop 30 , is well underway. For nearly two weeks , leaders and delegates from nearly 200 countries have convened in the city of Belém , the gateway to the Amazon rainforest. But this year , the United States is not at the table , and there's still the sense that the world is trying to reach an agreement at a time when finding consensus on climate remains a challenge. Joining me to break this down is David Victor. He's a professor of innovation and public policy at UC San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy. David , welcome back to Midday Edition.
S3: Great to be back , Andrew.
S1: Great to have you. So you've been following this conference closely from your vantage point.
S3: Historically , the United States has often played a big role in helping to make this happen. You know , these these kinds of events happen and be effective. It's the world's biggest economy , tremendously innovative. At the same time , they they've seen what's happened with the United States , has been involved in other negotiations this year. And frankly , I'm hearing from a lot of people that they're happy the U.S. is not there if the US is going to be obstructionist. And so they're kind of lurching forward , dealing with some really , really difficult issues. The risk of failure is always very high at these conferences. We've still got a couple of days to go.
S1:
S3: The big issues this year have been the same issues for for many years. It's money and it's how do we make big reductions in emissions , what a lot of people call ambition on the money front. A few years ago , they agreed to set a goal by 2035 of having $300 billion of money go from mainly rich countries to mainly poor countries. We're at about 100 billion right now. Maybe a little bit more. A lot of countries are not feeling very rich , and so it's hard to make a lot of progress on that. On cutting emissions. The world has been doing pretty well , actually , in terms of slowing the growth of emissions. But a lot of countries have made big pledges to make big reductions in emissions. And and a lot of the discussions going on in Brazil right now are about this gap that's emerged between the pledges and reality , because it's very hard to make massive reductions in emissions very quickly.
S1: So , you know , you mentioned the Trump administration not attending this year , but other U.S. leaders have attended , including California Governor Gavin Newsom.
S3: We do a lot on climate change. We have a lot of clean tech companies. People are interested in what's happening in California. There's a long history of California cooperating with other countries. So it's it's always an interesting to hear what's going on in California when the US federal government is absent. It happened during the first Trump administration. Trump 1.0. Now it's really happening on steroids because not only are they absent , they're pretty hostile to a lot of this stuff. People are paying attention to the pro fossil fuel agenda in Washington , even though Washington may not be able to do very much about that agenda. And so in that vacuum , people are looking for signs that the United States is still in and California is providing a pretty loud sign there. And that was indeed the message that Gavin Newsom brought , and people were thrilled.
S1: Let's talk more about U.S. policy on climate.
S3: There's no question about that. Under the Biden administration. The Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act , the IRA , the biggest spending bill on clean energy ever in American history. We have now under the Trump administration and with the Republicans in unified control on Capitol Hill , there's one big , beautiful bill , a reconciliation bill that's basically reversing a lot of the clean energy policies there. So on the surface , it looks like the United States has just completely abandoned ship on the on the clean energy revolution. Below the surface , though , the picture is really very different. The Trump administration remains very supportive of some parts of clean energy , carbon capture and storage. That's a way to make fossil fuels have lower emissions. Nuclear. A lot of support for nuclear. And then on top of that , you got a whole bunch of companies that are out doing clean energy despite what's going on in Washington , including the four big companies that are building these data centers whenever possible. These data centers use a lot of electricity. Whenever possible. They're buying clean electricity and paying a big premium for it. Hmm.
S1: Hmm. So , you know , President Trump , one thing he did. He has pulled out of the Paris climate accords. What impact has that ultimately had ? I mean , you know , break that down for us. What what that means for climate policy here.
S3: Well , there's a formal legal implication. And then there's a question of America's role in the world , but formal legal implication isn't. On the first day in office , he signed an executive order to pull out of the Paris Agreement , and everyone in the world expected that would happen. They also expected it would happen in the first day. It takes a year for the withdrawal to become effective. So technically they are. We are still members of the Paris Agreement , even though there's nobody sitting behind the American flag. Down , down , down in Brazil. So that's the formal legal implication. I think the much bigger implication is the rest of the world doesn't know what to believe from the United States anymore. And all this flip flopping has made it hard for us to send reliable signals the rest of the world about what do we stand for ? What do we care about , you know , what are our policy strategies ? And in that context , what you're seeing is a lot of countries look to other places , other markets , including to some degree to to China as the world's largest exporter of clean energy technologies. And they're also looking to American firms because they know the American firms have a time horizon beyond any administration.
S1: And that's something that , you know , I've seen , you know , just these videos of just the electric electrification of China just using , you know , clean energy in ways that maybe , you know , we haven't really integrated.
S3: And we do a lot of work on that here at UC San Diego. They are the biggest investor in clean , clean technologies across the board in building new nuclear plants and building and selling electric vehicles in batteries and solar panels to some degree in wind. List goes on from there. And that's been a conscious strategy of the Chinese government for quite some time to build an industry here , sell to the local market in China and also to sell globally. So that's been going on. And then along comes all these shocks in the global trading system that have been really amplified in just in the last few months. And so the Chinese clean tech market is really in turmoil because you have a huge amount of production capacity , not enough demand. Prices are plummeting. They're losing access to many of the markets where you've got other countries that are worried about being too dependent on China. So there's a lot of turmoil going on inside China that eventually will work itself out. To me , what's interesting politically is how this has helped the Chinese government become more confident in talking to the rest of the world about what they're doing on clean technology and how they're slowing the growth of emissions and the absence of the United States around that agenda has given more running room for the Chinese to have those messages. And , frankly , for those messages to land pretty well.
S1: You know , going back to the United States and the Trump administration's moves here , we have heard a lot on just changes with EV rules. Um , you know , how is that trickling down to maybe American companies and their investment in clean energy , but also just to like an adoption of EVs going forward ? Yeah.
S3: So the changes in the EV rules have not eliminated people's interest in electric vehicles. Electric vehicles are intrinsically more efficient than internal combustion engines. Uh , cars , they're fun to drive. They potentially have a big role to play in reducing emissions in some states. California in the lead , continuing their policies to push electric vehicles. There's been a lot of turmoil in the market because we saw the end of the federal subsidies. So there was a kind of the electric vehicle market fell off a cliff for one month , And now it's in the process of of bouncing back. And I expect that that turmoil is going to kind of work itself out. And this is a good example of where the technological revolution is a fundamentally important one and fundamentally sound one. And that means that's going to continue. I think the bigger issue here is that the questioning that the Trump administration has made around clean technology has also been given air cover for a lot of resetting on what are our goals , what goals are feasible. And frankly , even before Donald Trump got elected , a lot of countries , a lot of firms had adopted goals for cutting emissions. The state of California as well , that just weren't feasible. And so you've got a big reset. And I think that reset ultimately is going to be very healthy for the clean tech economy , because it's going to reconnect it to reality.
S1: Earlier you mentioned , you know , some of the progress that's been made on emissions , but , you know , that may not be going far enough. I mean , according to the UN's World Meteorological Organization , In 2025 , is on track to be among one of the hottest years on record. So just set the scene for us in the state of climate change , and I'm wondering if you can break down for us how that's informed negotiations this year.
S3: Yeah , so , so about 6 or 7 years ago , Ron Ramanathan here at Scripps and I and a graduate student of ours at the time wrote a paper in nature laying out why the world was the warming in the world was accelerating. It was going to blast through this one and a half degree limit soon , right about now. And that's in fact what's happened. So I think what we have are two stories that are simultaneously true. One story is the world is warming and the warming is accelerating. And that's going to be bad news. The other story is that the rate of warming has is , is or future warming is slowing down because we're beginning to bend the emissions curve. So 20 years ago , the world was on track for 4 or 5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels this century. Now we're on track for maybe two , two and a half , three , and a half degrees of warming. A lot of uncertainty in that. So that's still a lot of climate change. We need to be ready to become more resilient to the physical effects of climate change. But at the same time , we have to recognize the right way to measure progress is what was the track we were on before ? Where are we right now ? And so both those stories are true. We're making progress. Not enough progress. We're also seeing accelerated warming and the physical impacts associated with that wildfire is rapidly intensifying hurricanes , droughts , heat waves , things like that.
S1: Now back to the conference happening. Cop 30. There have been calls from inside the summit to maybe change how they work or the way negotiations , you know , are being made. I'm curious if you can talk about that or speak to some of the frustrations there and what changes might come of that. Yeah.
S3: Yeah. So one of the fundamental frustrations is that these these conferences make big decisions by consensus , doesn't mean that every single country needs to be on board. But if a few countries are really unhappy. Where are big countries really unhappy ? You're not going to get a decision. And so there's been a lot of talk about changing those rules. That's not going to happen , because that's the way most of the United Nations system system operates. The other change that the Brazilian government introduced this year is to not try and wait until the last moment to get the final agreements. And so the the Brazilian negotiating team , diplomatic team , which is highly skilled , what they've tried to do is get the big agreements done actually by today , Wednesday , and then give them a couple more days to work on smaller issues. My guess is they won't be successful. They're trying. The president , President Lula , is there today trying to get people to agree on more things. They probably won't be successful because fundamentally , the negotiations these are politically very , very contentious issues like should should. And how do we phase out fossil fuels. And fundamentally , those kinds of questions are highly contentious. And so people run the clock all the way to the end. It's a little bit like a like a teenager writing a term paper. They wait till the very last moment. Then maybe a few moments after that. And so typically these conferences run a day or two over. And this is supposed to end on Friday. My guess is it'll end sometime Saturday. Hmm.
S1: Hmm. So we've also been seeing protests at this year's conference. Thousands of people taking to the streets to demand action. And it's kind of the first year people have been able to demonstrate at a UN climate conference.
S3: And we've had two conferences , especially the one last year in Baku , where nobody was going to protest in a significant way. I find it always really interesting to watch how local interests intersect with these global conferences. And in Brazil , the local interests are diverse , and in particular in a city like Berlin , because you're right on the edge of the Amazon forest around Belém. There's lots of evidence of the deforestation of the Amazon , and lots of evidence of ways we need to be doing better. And so Brazil has an enormous stake and an enormously articulate government as an enormous. But they have a big stake in success here in raising funds and making progress. And a lot of the protests were around that and around the justice agenda , where , you know , we're seeing a backlash against the justice agenda here in the United States. And one of the central ideas being debated , and BLM is around what a just transition away from a high emission world looks like. And a lot of that justice is about the indigenous communities that are affected , that are most affected , including those communities that live in the forest.
S1: You know , in about the last 30s or so we have here. I mean , we often turn to you , David , for your insights , realistic insights on climate policy , on what's happening with climate change , but also progress. I'm just curious if you can leave us with some words on what keeps you hopeful about the world and how it's responding to the climate crisis.
S3: Fundamentally , we're going to fix this problem by making big reductions in emissions. And the only way to do that in a in a cost effective manner , in a politically viable way , is through new technologies , doing more with the economy , with fewer emissions. That's a technological story. And the technologies are advancing. So that's that gives me great hope.
S1: I've been speaking with David Victor. He's the professor of innovation and public policy at UC San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy. David , thanks so much.
S3: Always a pleasure. Thank you.
S1: That's our show for today. I'm Andrew Bracken. KPBS Midday Edition airs on KPBS FM weekdays at noon , again at 8 p.m. you can find past episodes at KPBS or wherever you listen. Thanks again for listening. Have a great day.
