S1: Welcome in San Diego. It's Jade Hindman on this episode of KPBS Midday Edition. A recent study from UCSD found less than half of Americans expect this year's midterm elections to be free and fair. We dig into why. This is KPBS Midday Edition. Connecting our communities through conversation. So for the past few years , researchers at UC San Diego have been tracking Americans trust in our elections and finding a growing distrust. In its most recent study , just under half of those surveyed expect this year's midterm elections to be free and fair. So what's behind this mistrust? Well , two of the researchers behind the study are here to discuss that. Closer is a professor of political science at UC San Diego. Thad , welcome back to Midday Edition.
S2: Thanks so much for having me , Jed.
S1: Glad to have you here. And Lauren Prather also here with us. She's an associate professor of political science with UC San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy. Lauren , welcome back to midday.
S3: Thanks so much for having me.
S1: Glad to have you both here. So , Lauren , less than half say they expect this year's election to be free and fair. That seems like pretty low confidence to me. And you've been researching Americans trust in elections since 2022. How much has that changed from then until now?
S3: Thanks for asking. Yes. So we've been surveying Americans about what they think about US elections since about 2022. And in particular , in addition to the question that asked respondents in our survey about whether they think the midterm elections will be free and fair , we drilled down a little bit deeper to ask about whether Americans expected to have confidence in the way votes are counted nationwide. And there that question we've been asking since 2022 and we've found a significant decline. So since we pulled people after the post 2024 presidential election , we recorded in early 2026 a 17 percentage point decline. So at early 2026 , we were about 60% of respondents were trusting that votes counted nationwide would be done so accurately. We've since declined a further five percentage points. And what's remarkable about what we've found is that this decline has been experienced across party lines. So Democrats , Republicans and independents have all been declining in their trust. So our latest survey , which was fielded to more than 5000 Americans in early September , found that 63% of Democrats had confidence that votes would be counted accurately nationwide , compared to 58% of Republicans and only 49% of independents. Wow.
S1: Wow. And that , you know , Lauren mentioned that this decline in confidence in elections is really bipartisan. Your research also found that trust among Republicans and independents declined more than for Democrats. What does that tell you?
S2: Well , I think like everything in American politics , sort of what you think about something depends on on what party you come from and what information you're getting. So there's been a bigger decline among Republicans and independents , but really all three of these groups are going down , right? This is one of the things that one of the few things that people actually agree about in American politics , people have questions about this election , but what they're worried about. There are some areas of of really partisan , real partisan differences. So Republicans are really worried about whether ballots were cast by mail. Right. So mail ballots , you've seen the president talking about this a lot , and they're worried about whether people who are not U.S. citizens are are casting ballots in elections , are independents about , you know , a third of independents share those worries Only fewer than a quarter of Democrats. So a real partisan split on that. Democrats and independents are really worried about people who are eligible to vote , not being able to cast a ballot , whether they're face obstacles of the polling place or face or face , um , intimidation. So so there's a difference. There's a big another partisan difference. And then there are a few things that really Democrats , Republicans and independents alike all agree on. People are worried that congressional districts don't represent the voters who live in them because of gerrymandering. Right. The the redistricting wars we saw last year. No party likes those. And then we also found lots of Democrats , Republicans and independents worried about foreign interference in elections and about cyber attacks. So so there are some common , uh , agreements , common worries , as well as these distinct worries held by blue and red America.
S1: And I want to talk more about the reasons for this growing mistrust , because one of those your study found was due to fears of Ice enforcement at poles. So how are threats of immigration enforcement shaping how people are feeling about this election? Lauren.
S3: So this is something that we've actually heard , uh , elements of the Trump administration and those associated with the Trump administration talk about that. Ice could be at the poles , or Ice could be sent to the poles. And we see that these expectations are reflected in our survey. So , um , we found that more than a third of respondents in our survey expect Ice to be at poles where they vote , like in their communities. And so , um , this is a pretty high expectation. And , um , where we see some divergence is how concerned people are about this presence and whether that presence will increase or decrease their confidence in elections. And so we see a large gap in concerns about this presence across communities of color. So 39% of Asian American and Pacific Islander. Respondents in our survey were worried that Ice would question them if they were to go to the polls. Um , 31% of Hispanic respondents and 24% of black respondents had these same concerns , compared to only 9% of white respondents. We see a similar level of concern that their family members would be questioned. Um , and we also see a general concern among communities of color in our survey that they expect to face , uh , intimidation. 49%. So almost half of the black respondents in our survey said they expected to face intimidation when they went to the polls this midterm election. And finally , I just wanted to share that there's partisan differences in how this expectation of ice of the polls is affecting confidence. So we see that 60% of Democrats said Ice presence would lower their confidence in elections , while 46% of Republicans said it would actually raise theirs. Interesting.
S1: Interesting. Well , Thad , last week , several civil rights organizations , including the NAACP and SEIU , filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration , saying they're using the threat of Ice enforcement to interfere with the election. Lauren touched on this , but what what else did you learn specifically about election concerns from people of color? Yeah.
S2: Yeah. So one of the things that that state and local election officials are doing around the country is trying to give voters the tools and the information they need to to ensure that they're that they can participate in the election , that they can vote and not face this discrimination. One of the things that we did in this survey is we took some of the messages , one , that the Michigan Attorney General's office and then one that the University Center , uh , has has put out there. And we simply played that for some voters and played other voters , a message totally unrelated to that. And so we'll be able to see it in the coming week , really , whether there are solutions , right? Whether this messaging does give people that comfort that that their vote vote can be , can be counted and that they're not going to face any intimidation at the polling place. And we'll be able to see whether there's a racial gap between that. Right? Whether this heightened set of concerns that that Hispanic , but also Asian American voters have about eyes of the polling places , whether when they're sort of given the tool of information , whether that makes them feel comfortable voting.
S1: And so then your research did find also partisan divides in some areas. But there were areas with strong bipartisan agreement , particularly when it comes to artificial intelligence. Uh , over three fourths of those surveyed said they're concerned about AI deepfakes. Can you talk more about what concerns voters most had about AI on elections?
S2: Yeah , they're worried about a few things. So one , uh , and this is something we hear over and over again from election officials themselves , is that is that deep AI may make cyber attacks more , prominent. And so that was something that voters , again , across the political spectrum said that they were worried about. When we just asked voters , you know , after they they they responded about their concerns about deepfakes. We just ask them , do you think AI is going to make things unbalanced? It's going to be beneficial and help this election or hurt this election? Republicans 2 to 1. It was going to be harmful rather than beneficial. Democrats 3 to 1 , independents 4 to 1. So really , nobody is excited about the role that AI is going to be playing in this election. And these concerns that we have about what's it going to do to our economy , our privacy , everything , our safety , everything else that's also playing out in this sphere of elections.
S1: And deepfakes and AI weren't the only tech related concerns people had about elections. There are also concerns raised about how newer betting tools these prediction markets like Kalki for. For instance , we often hear about these when it comes to sports betting. But what's the connection to our elections this go round?
S3: So one of the things that , um , there is an emerging concern about is election officials and poll workers potentially betting on elections through some of these elections. Some of these betting markets. And this could be a concern because it could suggest some impartiality on the part of election officials or or poll workers that could lead to fraud in the system. And so there's a real concern about this and real support , bipartisan support for a ban on election officials and poll workers betting on , um , elections. So we asked , um , we asked about support for a ban. 72% of Democrats supported won , 69% of independents and 75% of Republicans. So this has , um , really high levels of support across parties to protect our elections and limit , um , limit this potential influence that betting could have on election officials and poll workers welfare.
S2: And importantly , San Diego has been a leader in that so that our county just last month passed , you know , a ban on on county employees overall using nonpublic information to bet in these markets. That's something that very few places have taken. So so San Diego is a national leader and in step with voters nationally. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. Well , as we mentioned at the start of our conversation , thank you both have really been tracking these sentiments around elections for years now. What have you learned about the state of our democracy today?
S2: You know , I think it's easy to lose a lot of faith when you see these headline numbers , right? Fewer than half people trust these elections. The thing that we've learned over and over again by partnering with election officials all across the country , is that when voters see the facts about elections , right , when they when they see videos about the protections that that that ensure that their ballot is counted accurately when they do pull tours of an election facility , when they read a summary of an audit report that's done after nearly every election. Then their trust goes up really strongly. Right. So once voters learn the facts , they become their faith in democracy goes up. And I think that's that's been the solution that we found over and over again to this problem that so many of our polls have highlighted.
S1: Lauren , any final thoughts? Yeah.
S3: Yeah. So actually , as I've gotten into this work , I've really been heartened by the way election officials around the country have stepped up to really address this problem of voter confidence. And if anything , it's given me more faith in the system , because the way election officials are innovating to try to reach out to voters , to share how their votes are protected is having an effect , which are our center is discovering we're we're seeing these effects play out. Local trust in elections at the city level is quite high. The problem now is we need to think about nationwide how to increase confidence across state lines , across city lines. And I think I think we'll get there. I'm confident in election officials that they're innovating in a way that will , um , increase confidence going forward.
S1: All right. I've been speaking with Thad Kooser. He's a political science professor at UC San Diego , along with Lauren Prather , associate professor of political science at UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Thad , Lauren , thank you so very much.
S2: Thank you for having us.
S1: That's our show for today. I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.
