S1: Welcome in San Diego , it's Jade Hindman. On today's show , the leader of a cartel was killed by officials over the weekend. Now there are travel advisories , and people are sheltering in place as cartel members respond with unrest and position for new turf. Will put it all into context. This is KPBS Midday Edition. Connecting our communities through conversation. So by now , you may have heard about violence in Mexico after authorities killed a major cartel leader over the weekend. The man , known as El Menchu , was killed near the city of Guadalajara , and members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel have responded by setting businesses and vehicles on fire in Guadalajara. We've seen similar scenes play out in many parts of Mexico , including Tijuana. And officials said at least 62 people have died. Well , now we turn to an expert to really help us make sense of what's happening in Mexico through context. Eve Mead directs Proceso Pacifico , a peacebuilding group in the capital of Sinaloa in Mexico. Before that , he was director of the Transborder Institute at the University of San Diego. And he joins me now. Eve , welcome back to Midday Edition.
S2: Very nice to be here. Thanks for the invite.
S1: We really appreciate you being here and look forward to your insight on this. I mean , let's start with the cartel leader who was killed on Sunday , El Mincio.
S3: And what I would say about him is he's the last of a generation of capos. So El Chapo Guzman , El Mayo Zambada and Caro Quintero from Sinaloa. People may remember the Arellano Félix brothers from the Tijuana Cartel or Alberto Lazcano from , uh , from the Zetas cartel. You know , for a long time , he was the one who evaded being killed or captured longer than any of the rest of them. And now he's sort of the last of that generation to fall. And I think what made him a little bit different than those other couples is that he was known for an aggressive program of political violence. You know , people may remember reading about the mayor of Michoacan , Carlos Manzo , who was assassinated last year , or the governor of Jalisco , who was killed in 2020 , or even an attempt on the security minister , the current security minister , Omar Garcia , who's gotten a lot of attention , um , in the media lately because he's sort of leading the drug war. He tried to kill him in 2020 , in a big , spectacular assassination attempt. And so , you know , this people might want to see this as like , this is an end of an era , but it's also something that leaves a huge power vacuum because cartel Jalisco Nueva Generation , uh , is Mexico's largest and most fearsome drug cartel. And now it doesn't have a leader.
S1: Help me understand the sort of the relationship here between cartels and then. Law enforcement in this city.
S3: Well , it's tough because it's , you know , it's the whole country. You know , as we saw yesterday , there were these these fiery displays and roadblocks , burning cars , burning buildings in 19 different states in Mexico. So while Jalisco is in the name of of the cartel , they're really national. You know , they have a presence almost everywhere in Mexico. And , um , their relationship with law enforcement is really tough. I mean , the Mexican government has basically continued the quote unquote , war on the drug cartels. Um , and , uh , it's been progressively militarized since 2007. That means that if you go to a place that's a hot spot , you're going to see soldiers , Marines , uh , National Guardsmen , you know , heavily armed , patrolling the streets. Um , the the subtler part in the more difficult part to to talk about or to give you a quick summary of is , you know , we know that some law enforcement officials have been involved in the cartels , their high profile cases. You know , former security minister under Felipe Calderon. There are , you know , some former generals. And then there's all kinds of garden variety local cases. And that's one of the toughest things to untangle. Um , and , and it's one of the things in this drug war in Mexico that I think will take the longest , um , to reach any kind of resolution , because there are lots of , you know , the vast majority of law enforcement officials in Mexico , I think , are trying to fight against these groups. Um , but they couldn't function as they do if there wasn't some collaboration. Um , and I think I , I don't think I'm , you know , slandering anybody to say that. I think it's well known. Right.
S1: Right.
S3: There are a couple things that it stands out for. And so , you know , we wonder if these things will go away or if they'll just get worse. And so it's worth , I think , underlying just a couple of things. One , they're really known for these violent spectacles. So what we saw yesterday you know or over the weekend I mean this it was terrifying. But it was just the same kind of thing that they've always done on a large scale. You know , when the cartel announced itself to the world in 2015 , they did something very similar. They shut down the city of Ocado with like 35 burning roadblocks. In the first couple months of the existence of the cartel , they killed 100 local police and elected officials in that state. So they've you know , they've done these things before. They shot down a military helicopter with a rocket in 2015 , and they've taken things that other cartels have done , like violent execution and torture videos that they put on the internet. And they they just did it on another level. They've reinforced their brand. Anybody who insults any of their leaders can be assassinated , even if they have nothing to do with the police or nothing to do with organized crime. Um , they also , you know , Diversified what they do , and this has huge implications for what comes next. They're not just involved in drug trafficking. They're involved in what you call which is pirated gasoline. They're involved in , um , extorting mining companies and engaging in illegal mining. They're involved in extorting all kinds of small businesses all over the country. Money laundering , real estate. I mean , it has many , many , many tentacles. So what comes next is , well , I think what we've learned about , uh , drug cartels in general , when you knock the head off of them and you kill one of these capos or arrest one of these capos , the first thing you see is fragmentation. And that means that instead of , you know , a big group , you end up with a whole bunch of smaller groups fighting each other , and that usually means lots more violence. So I think in the short run , that's what everybody's worried about.
S1: And I mean , as we talk about violence , we've seen some really dramatic scenes of cars and buildings on fire in parts of Mexico.
S3: I work. I've worked all over Mexico and I work in Colombia. But , you know , my project started in Culiacan , Sinaloa. I was there this weekend. I'm running a program there right now. And we anybody in Sinaloa has some experience there. We can't. But think about the Culiacan also in 2019 where the Sinaloa cartel shut down , you know , Culiacan , a city of a million people with , you know , burning cars and a very similar kind of operation to prevent the arrest of Ovidio Guzman , one of Chapo sons , and then the second Culiacan , also in 2023 , where they actually captured him. But it took this massive firefight where , you know , lots of ordinary civilians were caught in the crossfire and everyone was terrified again. So we we can't but think about that. And I think the lesson from that is really terrifying for the present moment , because as bad as it looked , to see a whole city shut down and to see , you know , these burning cars and people's experience of being , you know , torn off a bus with their kids and having , you know , armed men lighted on fire. That wasn't the violence. That was the announcement. That was the warning in the. And that seems to be what's going on here. You know , it could have been a bloodbath yesterday , but but it wasn't. I mean , it's terrible. You know , 25 , uh , soldiers and federal police were killed , but still , it could have been what yesterday was was the warning. And you know what the experience of , of , of Culiacan tells us is that the violence may be yet to come. You know , Elmira Zambada was arrested at the end of July in 2024 , and the war didn't really come to Culiacan until September of 2024. And it's still going on. Nobody goes out at night. They're heavily armed forces in the street. Kids aren't doing a full school day yet. Uh , you know , more than a year later. So , um , and that was just in Sinaloa. And so the worry is , is that can happen in Guadalajara. Is it going to happen in Puerto Vallarta ? What about , you know , the other 18 states where this warning was made yesterday. So I think there's a lot of uncertainty about it , but I do I do really think that people need to take that part. Seriously. That yesterday was just the warning. That was just the spectacle. The real violence that comes with fragmentation can be a whole lot worse.
S1: And it sounds like this. This violence is just absolutely crippling. Um , and by yesterday , you mean Sunday. When ? This Sunday. Sorry. Yeah. Sunday.
S3: Sunday. This weekend. Yeah.
S1: Yeah , absolutely. You also mentioned your your project and I want to talk more about that because you've been running Proceso Pacifico for more than ten years all over Mexico. And through that program you speak with people who have been affected by cartel violence.
S3: I think the the feeling of powerlessness when something like this happens , thinking you live in a big modern country with a lot of resources. Um , you , you know , you live the same kind of life , consumer life that , you know , we live here in the United States , Um , and everything feels normal. And you might even live in a place where you're accustomed to reading some more narco news that we might read here , but then all of a sudden have this feeling like , well , what if what if all that was an illusion ? And we're going to go back to living in an armed camp for the next year ? I mean , in Sinaloa , they they describe what's happening right now as a narco pandemia , meaning like a pandemic year as down now as they were during the pandemic. And so I think it really does bring up a lot of trauma. I think , um , the I mentioned the powerlessness , but I also feel there's also a lot of anger. And I think that's important too. And the anger is one of those things that , you know , can tip in a positive direction or a negative direction. I mean , I was really heartened this weekend in the middle of all these flaming blockades and all this , there was a peace march in Culiacan , Sinaloa , where thousands of people went out. And so it was a peace march , and that's great. But they also went out with the names of a bunch of victims of this recent wave of violence , demanding that the government do something about it. And that's it's powerful stuff. But it also tells us that we might be at a tipping point where we go in a direction where , you know , we really try to protect people against violence , or are we going to a direction where there's a major escalation of this war and a lot of the protections for ordinary people , you know , play sort of play second fiddle ? Um , yeah. And I think that's the big risk at the moment.
S1: You know , for , for this particular operation , it was Mexican officials and U.S. officials who took out El Mincio.
S3: I mean , I think the the Mexican government and the president , Claudio Sheinbaum , is under a ton of pressure from the Trump administration. And on the one hand , I think she's handled it really well. She's tried to say we're , you know , Mexico is doing these things , and some of these operations are to sort of show the US that , you know , they're capable of doing these things. They can take out this , um , this fearsome guy , but , um , it's some of it's also contained.
S4: It really doesn't have anything to do with.
S3: Trump or Shane. You know , some of the stuff the previous presidents.
S4: Have as well.
S3: Oh , and there's they're continuing to collaborate. And I think they've been pretty effective. Yeah. Okay.
S4: Okay.
S3: Oh no I'm not sure what happened.
S1: I'm not either. But you sound good right now. We'll keep going.
S3: Oh , I'm sorry. It said my connection was unstable.
S1:
S4: Yeah , let.
S1: Me just say left. Go ahead. I'm sorry. Okay.
S3: Okay. Super. So the presidential administration of Mexico is under a whole lot of pressure right now to show that they're doing something , and that can be productive. It can move things along , and it can be a continuation of like , US's good extradition policy. But we can also there's also a risk , though , that this turns to shortcuts on things like human rights. And I think that , you know , some people may think , well , we want this to be more like , you know , El Salvador , where they had suspended the Constitution and locked everybody up. That wouldn't work in Mexico. And I think a whole lot of us in the peace and human rights community are really worried about the long term consequences of short , short cut policy , rather than something much more organic that involves ordinary people in kind of taking the country back.
S1: I'm really glad we got that in , because that's a really important part of the conversation.
S3: I think we expect that they'll there'll be some struggle to control the remnants of this organized crime group. And some of their enemies will try to take advantage of this. But I think that I'm also looking at , you know , how civil society responds. You know , will there be more things like a peace march that I mentioned ? Will. Will we see some prosecutors start to show a little bit of independence and say , look , instead of just going after the heads of the drug cartels , we want to go after whoever is responsible for the the most violence and corruption against the Mexican people. And I think if we see a turn in that direction , you know , which would be something like what happened with the Italian Mafia when when Giovanni Falcone was the heroic prosecutor in Sicily , or Baltasar Garzon at the end of the dictatorship in Spain ? That could happen. And I'm hoping it's going to go more that way than the way of let's militarize the whole thing , let's let's kill and capture as many of these guys as we can , because the historical record on that is that all it does is escalate violence.
S1: Such an insightful conversation. I've been speaking with Eve Meade. He's director of the Proceso Pacifico , a peace building group in the capital of Sinaloa. Editor. Thank you so much for joining us.
S3: Thanks very much for having me.
