S1: Welcome in San Diego , it's Jade Hindman. On today's show , the U.S. is at war with Iran. We'll talk about the global impact and what this means for our local service members. This is KPBS Midday Edition. Connecting our communities through conversation. The United States and Israel's coordinated attacks on Iran from over the weekend continue to escalate. Among the ships involved in strikes include a San Diego based aircraft carrier , the USS Abraham Lincoln. Four American soldiers have died in the conflict. San Diego Congressional Delegate Sarah Jacobs and Scott Peters decried the attacks , while Representative Juan Vargas said the president needs to immediately provide a briefing on the attacks and the long term strategy to Congress. Also , Representative Darrell Issa expressed support for service members on X. It's a campaign President Trump says could take 4 to 5 weeks or far longer. But for many experts , it's still unclear what exactly the president's plans in the region are. Joining me to break it all down is Eric Garcetti. He's a professor of political science and director of the center for Peace and Security Studies at UC San Diego. Professor , welcome to the show.
S2: Thank you so much for having me.
S1: Glad you have had the time today. Uh , everybody's looking for clarity here. So first , what were your initial reactions to news of the attacks this past weekend ? Yes.
S3: Well , I think like many people who are following the news , uh , concern and confusion , uh , it's not clear what the objectives are on the part of the white House and the administration In carrying out these attacks. They've given a variety of different explanations , some of which seem redundant from the attacks that happened last year , in which the president said that he had obliterated the Iranian nuclear capability. Um , and others that seem to directly contradict what he campaigned on , where he said that the US needs to avoid additional , um , quagmire type conflicts in the Middle East.
S1:
S3: Um , that's not that threshold. Probably hasn't been met yet , but it looks very likely that that will be the case between the 4 or 5 or maybe now eight , uh , different warring entities , uh , as the the days and weeks ahead , uh , progress. The president is saying 4 or 5 weeks. Um , we don't know when this will end , in part because we have no idea what the objectives are or how they will be met. Yeah.
S1: Yeah.
S3: One of the problems the white House has and the president has in communicating with us and with Congress and with , uh , the the Iranians , the foes are that he has a , uh , integrity problem. He's not well known for his honesty or candor , and he also tends to shift what he thinks about things from moment to moment. So , uh , it's really tricky if you think in your own life about how to deal with somebody , it's really tricky to deal with them if you don't know what they want. So even if the Iranians were predisposed to accommodate some of the demands that the US has. It's not clear that they know what those demands ultimately are.
S1: What are what is what are the American people supposed to do with that , you think ? I mean , in terms of , you know , no clear objectives coupled with , you know , maybe media not having as much access to information from the white House about what's going on.
S3: I think unlike many other issues that are very divisive today , um , there might be a substantial majority of the American people that can , um , see eye to eye on on this conflict because the many of the people who voted for Donald Trump in the last election voted for him because of his avowed position in opposing foreign entanglements and , uh , you know , claim to be , uh , want to be the peace president. Well , They should be talking to their representatives and to the white House. Uh , letting them know that this is not what they voted for. And those who voted against Trump , maybe many of them would have been in opposition to this conflict in any case. So , uh , they can also remind their representatives that , um , open ended conflicts in the Middle East. America doesn't have a good record with these. Um , they end up killing Americans. They end up killing people in the Middle East. And , um , often after a very long and expensive process , we end up deciding that they're not going anywhere that we want to be. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. Well , you know , among many questions being asked about the attacks is did the president need congressional approval for them ? KPBS military and Veterans Affairs reporter Andrew Dyer spoke with San Diego Congressmember Scott Peters this morning about that question. And here's some of what he had to say.
S4: It is the constitutional requirement of that Congress declare war. The president has referred to this as a war. I'm going to go back tomorrow and hope to get the briefings that we want. I think we're going to vote on a War Powers resolution that says , you got to come to Congress before you start a war , and put our men and women in harm's way. And the point is not just for permission , but it's to explain to us , you know , why this is needed now and what the endgame is.
S1: So what do you make of all that of the president entering the US into what he calls a war , and doing so without congressional approval ? This action never went up for a vote by Congress ? Yeah.
S3: Um , I think the congressman , uh , made the point. Very well. I have a former PhD student , Patrick Hume , who wrote a wonderful dissertation on war powers and made the point that not since Truman in 1950 has there been a successful large scale use of military force without congressional authorization. They tend either to be smaller affairs or um , they tend to be unsuccessful. And so the risk here is because we're not clear about what the endgame. And I'm using language from back in the day. But we in the aftermath of previous conflicts , we started as a country to talk about the need to have an end game in a conflict. Um , we can't know what the endgame is if we don't even know what the end would look like , right ? So , um , this is dangerous. Um , it as long as this is constrained to striking Iran's nuclear capabilities , or maybe some , as has happened , uh , striking their conventional capabilities and their leadership if if we're going to define , uh , the goal as weakening , blunting , uh , Iran's , uh , military power and its political , um , cohesion , we can walk away from this in 4 or 5 weeks and there will be an argument , uh , either way , about , um , war powers. The truth of the matter is , there's no description of any urgency for why this had to happen without congressional authorization or even , uh , informing Congress. There have been crises in the past where the government , the US government had to move quickly because of information that they had. But generally speaking , they try to inform key members of Congress , even if they don't go for open debate and formal authorization of the use of force.
S1: One reason for this this action seems to be regime change. Um , he mentioned that in in his address over the weekend , uh , late Friday night , early Saturday morning. Um , and in that address , he was saying , you know , it's time for you to take over your government. But who was he talking to when he said that. I mean , have we been in communication with a group in Iran about regime change or.
S3: Well , I wouldn't be privy to that information. Presumably it would be carried out by the intelligence community and it would be classified. Um , but to kind of answer your question more directly , um , it's entirely possible that there's opposition , uh , is very likely there is opposition to the Iranian Islamist regime. Um , you will recall going way back , uh , 25 years ago , the pretext that the then Bush administration gave for invading Iraq was that they had had some communication with dissident groups in Iraq , and that they wanted to carry out regime change. It later changed to weapons of mass destruction , because it turned out that it was illegal under international law to carry out forceful regime change. and it remains illegal today. Hmm.
S1: Hmm. Also , the president , as you've mentioned before , seems to really be offering up mixed messages and workshopping different timelines with the media for these attacks.
S3: The president has a confidence problem. Um , his approval ratings are among the lowest that have been recorded in modern survey research going back 70 years. One explanation that people in my community use on occasion for situations like this is called diversionary war , or known as Wag the Dog. Um , it may be that with the combination of the Epstein files , uh , the unpopular use of immigration enforcement and other issues that have made this president in this administration very unpopular with the American people that the president is looking for some way to get through the midterm primaries , which are beginning to happen right now. Um , with a little bit more public support. And there is usually a bounce that an administration gets out of a foreign policy crisis. Hmm.
S1: Hmm. Well , you know , I want to talk about here locally. I mean , here in San Diego , we've got a large military community.
S2:
S3: The largest uniform population in the United States living in and around San Diego. And many , many of those folks are now deployed to the Middle East. You mentioned in the intro that one of the carriers that are based here is in the Middle East. That's 5000 Americans floating in the Mediterranean or in the Persian Gulf somewhere. So , um , many of us will know or have family members that are serving in the military. And already we have three , possibly four Americans that have been killed in the region. Others are injured. So this is going to affect Americans in San Diegans in particular , because they're going to lose loved ones in France. Um , we're also seeing the effect at the gas pump. Um , while America produces more oil than it needs , the , uh , energy economy is global , and things that disrupt the energy economy are going to affect everybody. We're going to pay at the gas pump for this decision to use force thousands of miles away in the Middle East.
S1:
S3: One of the things that Iran is relatively capable of doing has invested in is cyber attacks. Um , I think as this conflict goes on , the Iranians are going to pull out all the stops because they're losing the military power and political cohesion that they've invested in so heavily. Um , so we may find that , uh , some of our institutions are attacked with cyber attacks. Maybe occasionally. Uh , it may be , uh , various different kinds. And that's a whole sort of separate issue. But , um , that's one way in which it would affect Americans. It probably won't kill Americans , but it might inconvenience them.
S2: Um , and.
S3: Then , of course , the longer this conflict , uh , persists , the more it will do things like snag transportation networks and ultimately , um , the Iranians back a variety of different terrorist organizations in the Middle East , and they will , uh , maybe , uh , I don't wish this. I don't , I'm hoping otherwise , but these are organizations that are good at causing mayhem. Hmm.
S1: Hmm. So there are a lot of consequences that could come from various directions to all of this and big impacts here in San Diego as well. Well , you know , professor , this is something that we'll continue to cover. And I appreciate your time today. I've been speaking with Eric Gursky. He's a professor of political science and director of the center for Peace and Security Studies at UC San Diego. Professor , thank you so much.
S2: Thank you.
S1: That's our show for today.
S5: I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.
