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San Diego Mayoral Poll: Alvarez Closing In On Faulconer’s Lead

Now we've got ourselves a race.

A sudden surge of support for David Alvarez has him back in contention to become San Diego's next mayor, as Kevin Faulconer's lead shrinks into the single digits.

According to the latest 10News/U-T San Diego poll released Sunday morning, Alvarez now has the support of 44 percent of likely voters, to Faulconer's 49 percent. Seven percent are undecided.

It's a sharp departure from our previous poll. Less than two weeks ago, Faulconer commanded a 53 percent majority of support, to Alvarez's 37 percent.

According to Jay Leve, with Survey USA, Alvarez owes this second wind to an awakening of voter support south of Interstate 8.

"Alvarez now leads south of the 8 by 20 points… a dramatic shift in that part of town," he explained. Just two weeks ago, the two candidates were in a virtual tie in the area. 

"Voters have woken up and realized there’s an election happening right now," Leve added.

However, it's not all good news for Alvarez. The new poll shows Faulconer still has a commanding lead among voters north of I-8: 61 percent to Alvarez's 34 percent. 

He also leads Alvarez among both men and women, and moderates and Independents. And among those who have already voted, Faulconer is ahead by 13 points.

Leve said that means Alvarez must ensure his supporters get to the polls on election day, and win among those who are waiting until the last minute to vote.

At this point, the new poll numbers indicate the election could go either way.

"Smart money looks at these poll results, and holds its breath," Leve said.

The election will be held Feb. 11.

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