S1: Hey there , San Diego , it's Andrew Bracken in for Jade Hyneman on today's show. How did voter sentiment on immigration shape midterm election results? This is KPBS Midday Edition. Connecting our communities through conversation. The results of last week's midterms raise key questions about how immigration enforcement may change over the next two years. An upcoming panel at UC San Diego will explore those questions , and what a Democratic controlled Congress could mean for immigration policy going forward. It's happening tomorrow at noon at the US Immigration Policy Center at UC San Diego. One of the panelists is Tom Wong. He's a political science professor at UC San Diego and founder and director of the US Immigration Policy Center. Tom , welcome back to midday.
S2: Thanks for having me.
S1: Thanks for joining us. So , you know , let's just start with the big picture question here. What role did immigration play in the midterm results we saw last week.
S2: Yeah , I think if we kind of go back to the campaign trail and remember Trump and the mass deportation agenda , there was more support for it than expected. It helped propel him into the white House. But over the past year and a half , as the public saw how immigration enforcement was unfolding , you know , think large scale military style operations in places like Chicago and , of course , in Minneapolis , where you have the killings of Alex Petty and Renee. Good. Then I think the sort of public started sort of questioning , you know , are we going too far? And , you know , the midterm results , it's not just a single issue. So we're not going to just say it's immigration , right. So affordability , cost of living. Those things are sort of , you know , paramount for voters. But the AP surveyed about 100,000 midterm voters and over six out of ten said , yeah , immigration enforcement had gone too far before the election during summer. Other sort of survey results were finding , well , you know , independents as well as those that previously supported Democratic candidates , but then went to Trump , uh , felt a lot of unease with the way that immigration policy enforcement was unfolding , and also that they were less likely to support political candidates that sort of backed that aggressive interior immigration enforcement that we were seeing. So now we have a , you know , historic midterm election where , uh , immigration enforcement , uh , definitely on voters minds. And now this administration has to decide where it goes from here.
S1: So , you know , last month , you you know , you mentioned some of these polling , what we've learned from voters , and you helped conduct a poll about San Diego voters and how they were feeling in the days leading up to the election. What did you learn from that?
S2: Oh , yeah. In our Vital Signs poll , uh , we asked a lot of questions about what voters know about political processes , uh , related to voting. Uh , so basic , like voting rights questions. Um , when we think about , uh , elections , I think we take for granted , uh , especially if we're frequent voters , uh , sort of basic Processes. Uh. We asked. You know , San Diego County residents whether or not they knew that if they were in line by 8 p.m. , that they could still vote , even if it was after 8 p.m.. Um , and it's kind of concerning. Um , uh , when you have about a third of San Diego County , uh , you know , residents saying that they did not know that rule , uh , things related to ballot curing , uh , things related to , uh , you know , losing a ballot and obtaining a new one. Uh , yeah. The public , I think we have some some work to do when it comes to , uh , making sure that , you know , the the public knows this voting rights. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. I mean , that's interesting. I mean , anything else surprise you about the reaction from the voters you spoke with here in San Diego?
S2: Uh , in the last Vital Signs poll. I mean , I think what we have sort of set out to do in Vital Signs is sort of gauge just , you know , a range of opinions so that we can get at things like , you know , happiness , uh , you know , people's perceptions about whether or not they can stay in San Diego , uh , based on costs. And , uh , we've done two vital signs polls now , and it's , uh , pretty clear that , you know , residents feel very happy living in San Diego. But cost of living affordability , uh , especially renters are unsure whether or not they can actually stay. And so when we think about , uh , you know , what the county may look like , uh , in the future and whether or not our neighbors will still be our neighbors. Um , there are a lot of people struggling with affordability and the cost of living and that was very , very clear in the Vital Signs polls. I think what we sort of also saw in the Vital Signs polls is a sort of dissatisfaction with sort of local politics in general and this sort of sentiment that , uh , you know , politics is really for advancing the interests of wealthy people. So we sort of asked , you know , residents whether or not they thought sort of , you know , politics and politicians , uh , sort of cared about sort of the issues that affect them or just , you know , the issues that affect , uh , you know , wealthy people and donors. And we saw an overwhelming majority sort of respond , uh , sort of special interests. So , yeah , lots of nuggets in the Vital Signs poll. Uh , and hopefully we'll be able to do a post-election poll in a couple of weeks as well. Interesting.
S1: Interesting. A lot of interesting findings there. And as you mentioned. Yeah. Cost of living was such , you know , a driver of this election. But bringing it back to what we were originally talking about. It's really hard to look at , you know , this Trump administration without talking about immigration. This election , you know , is now kind of being referred to as this blue tsunami. The Democrats will be taking control of both the House and the Senate in the New year. And really not by a small margin either. Um , you know , talking about the the election and reflecting on it , 60 minutes interviewed President Trump and kind of just reflecting on how immigration played a role in the results. Here's a little of that conversation.
S3: Do you think immigration hurt you in the midterms? I think the crackdown , I think.
S4: It both helped and hurt. I think I got an A+ for closing up the border. I get very high marks for getting the bad ones out , but I get hurt because we also took people that had good jobs that that created one violation or breaking of the law , and that was that. They came into the country illegally. Now , there is a large part of the country that think that they should be put out , and there's a large part of the country that think that they should be allowed to stay. If there are good people working in a landscaping company or working in a hotel or doing something right , and in some cases paying taxes , and there's a large group of people think that they should be allowed to stay.
S3: So you think your deportation policy was too tough? It was too tough.
S4: I think it might be too tough. Yeah.
S1: I mean , what do you think of that revelation? I thought it was pretty striking. I know it's getting a lot of reaction. Yes.
S2: Yes. Um , it is all the buzz in the immigration space. So I think that there is this acknowledgement from Trump , obviously , in those remarks that , there was strong reaction against interior immigration enforcement in the first , you know , one and a half years. But shortly after that interview aired. Then he goes and appoints Stephen Miller , the architect , not just of this sort of mass deportation campaign , but also during Trump , one of family separation at the southern border as his chief of staff. And so when we think about , you know , where does this administration go from here? Um , there's a lot of political chess to be played , because on the one hand , you have this hardliner as chief of staff , uh , as an ideologue. Do they sort of , you know , go all in on aggressive immigration enforcement or are they going to play politics , thinking about 2028 and maybe sort of soften , uh , interior immigration enforcement , uh , potentially work with Democrats on some sort of Ice accountability and reform issues. Um , if they choose the latter , then , uh , you know , we can see this administration and Trump in particular , trying to sort of save the party brand heading into 2028. Uh , but if they choose the former and they go sort of , you know , harder on interior immigration enforcement than I think , um , you know , without , uh , sounding too dramatic. Um , I think Republicans can say goodbye to 20 , 28. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. I mean , you know , I think it's worth noting it's been quite a while since there has been meaningful immigration reform at the federal level. Um , I think that's , you know , across Democratic and Republican administrations. I mean , what does that tell you about the possibility for , you know , meaningful immigration reform in the coming , you know , two years. Yeah.
S2: Yeah. I think , um , you know , despite the sort of historic results last Tuesday , you know , eyes wide open. Uh , 218 votes in the House , 60 votes in the Senate , and a presidential signature. That's what it takes , uh , for , uh , laws to be passed like comprehensive immigration reform. Uh , you got a democratically controlled Congress that , uh , sort of wants to move on immigration. Uh , I guess accountability and oversight , but also potentially pathways to citizenship. Um , but that presidential veto sort of stands in the way. Um , we haven't had meaningful immigration reform , as you mentioned , uh , for decades. The last large scale , uh , legalization was in the 80s. And , uh , now we have , you know , over 11 million undocumented immigrants , many of whom have lived in the United States now for decades with US citizen children. Um , and as the president himself mentioned , uh , no criminal history , but for an immigration violation. And so when we think about sort of , you know , where partisanship makes immigration policy reform sort of very difficult , uh , historically there's been more sort of bipartisan compromise on border related legislation , uh , and legal admissions policies. So sort of who we let in , how many and under what conditions , but the sort of partisan divides are widest when it comes to interior immigration enforcement and on legal status for undocumented immigrants. And those two things seem to be the sort of immigration policy issues of the day heading into our new Congress in January. So , you know , again , uh , you know , with Stephen Miller , his chief of staff. Is this administration going to double down and more aggressively enforce immigration laws , or will we see this administration work with Democrats on , you know , addressing some of these , uh , sort of difficult issues , especially related to legal status for undocumented persons? Um , but , I mean , you know , the political chess that I mentioned , uh , when Marco Rubio was , you know , senator in Florida and a sort of viable presidential candidate , uh , when President Obama was running for reelection , uh , there was a Republican version of the Dream act that was floated , um , that , uh , was sort of designed to help , uh , Republicans caught the Hispanic vote. And so if we see this president work with the democratically controlled Congress on something like maybe not legal status for all undocumented immigrants , but maybe for , you know , DACA recipients or dreamers. Um , then that political chessboard gets a lot more complicated because then the sort of , you know , swing among Hispanics and some Asians and some black voters to Trump in 2024 , that sort of swung back to that Democratic base last Tuesday. Uh , yeah. If if this president , uh , decides to potentially lead on something like legal status for some undocumented immigrants , uh , then that may be a saving grace for the Republican brand heading into 2028.
S1: Well , it's a lot , a lot. Thanks for breaking all the stuff down for us , Tom. I've been speaking with Tom Wang. He's a political science professor at UC San Diego and the founder and director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Center. He'll be presenting at a panel called What the Midterm Results Mean for Immigration Policy at UC San Diego tomorrow , November 12th. And we'll link to that. That starts at noon. Tom. Always great to have you on. Thanks so much.
S2: Thanks , Andrew. Bye.
S5: That's our show for today. I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.
