Scripps Researchers Say Lake Mead Could Dry Up by 2021

By Ed Joyce / Reporter, KPBS Public Broadcasting

Published February 12, 2008 at 2:21 PM PST

This story was published more than 16 years ago.

A key source of water for millions of people in San Diego and throughout the west could go dry. Scripps Institution of Oceanography researchers say Lake Mead could dry up if we don't change our ways.

Scripps Researchers Say Lake Mead Could Dry Up by 2021

(Photo: Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, October, 2007. Dr. Ken Dewey, Applied Climate Sciences Group, University of Nebraska, Lincoln )

A key source of water for millions of people in San Diego and throughout the west could go dry. Scripps Institution of Oceanography researchers say Lake Mead could dry up if we don't change our ways. KPBS Reporter Ed Joyce has more.

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Scripps researcher Tim Barnett says we're at or beyond the limits of the Colorado River system's ability to sustain the water needs Southwestern U.S. He says there are two key factors that could cause Lake Mead to go dry in 13 years.

A map of the Colorado River basin. David Pierce/Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Barnett: One is that we're taking more water out of the Colorado River system than Mother Nature is putting in. Climate change is reducing slowly, nevertheless reducing, the amount of water that goes into the river. He says natural forces like evaporation are also draining the Colorado River system which includes Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Barnett develops forecasts of long-range climate trends through the use of computer models.

He and Scripps climate scientist David Pierce say trends in snowpack, river runoff and air temperatures point to a decline in the region's water supply as the West's population and demand increase.

Ed Joyce, KPBS News.

Ed Joyce

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Ed Joyce was the environment reporter and afternoon news anchor for KPBS-FM. Before joining KPBS, he worked as an editor/columnist with Copley News Service in San Diego. Ed has an extensive background in newspaper, radio, web and TV journalism. After graduating with a B.A. in Communications from the University of Washington in Seattle, Ed began a career in broadcast journalism. His work has included stints in public broadcasting, commercial broadcasting and education -- working as an affiliate professor of communication and reporter at the University of Idaho and Washington State University in Pullman, Wash. During the past 20 years he has worked in radio, TV and print as a news reporter, anchor, writer, editor and producer. Along the way he has won numerous awards for general news reporting, newswriting, feature and issue reporting and breaking news reporting from The Associated Press, The Society of Professional Journalists, San Diego Press Club and other organizations. During the mid-1990s, while working for Oregon Public Broadcasting, he was a frequent contributor to National Public Radio, including a feature report on the memorial service for 14 U.S. Forest Service "hotshots" who died fighting a wildfire in Colorado (the crew was based in a central Oregon town). He’s also filed reports with Marketplace, KQED’s California Report and Climate Watch and with national and regional networks throughout the United States. At KPBS, Ed continues his contributions to National Public Radio and other national and regional news organizations. He has won awards from the Society of Professional Journalists and San Diego Press Club for his environmental reporting at KPBS-FM-TV and for producing and anchoring radio newscasts. In 2007 he was selected a National Press Foundation fellow for Understanding Violent Weather II program. The seminars were held at the National Weather Center in Norman, Okla. In 2008 he spoke at a UC San Diego conference on U.S. National Security as part of the school’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. Ed led a discussion with the 18 foreign government officials and academics about the political debate over climate change. In 2010, Ed was elected to a three-year term on the board of the San Diego Press Club.

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