A new county economic analysis confirms what business owners in South County have said for years: cross-border sewage pollution has led to major economic losses in the region.
The report, conducted by the county-contracted ECOnorthwest, estimates that San Diego County has missed out on anywhere between $125 million and $500 million each year.
On Tuesday, Chris Blakney, a partner of ECOnorthwest, told the San Diego County Board of Supervisors those estimates could skyrocket if the crisis continues.
“Across a 20-year horizon, if unmitigated, this crisis will cost the county economy between $1.9 and $7.9 billion,” he said.
The report marks the county’s first estimate of the pollution's economic cost. Findings are preliminary and a more detailed report is expected to come before the board for formal approval next month.
Before this report, most of what the county had learned about local economic losses was anecdotal. A previous survey the county conducted in 2023 sought to better understand the economic impacts on small businesses in Imperial Beach.
That survey got responses from about 60 businesses. They indicated that several lost at least $100,000 in annual revenue. Some laid off employees and most said they would have trouble staying in business if conditions did not improve. The report concluded that a “full scope of economic impacts” was necessary, but it was not followed up on. It also mentioned that businesses could seek short-term relief through grant opportunities, but it's unclear whether any were ever found.
Blakney said more than 200 people or businesses participated in the survey that was conducted to develop, in part, the report.
The data also found that between 2017 and 2024, tourism tax revenues in Imperial Beach dropped nearly 30%, a significant decline compared to the regional average, Blakney said.
There are several reasons for the decline, according to the findings: prolonged beach closures, a drop in tourism and businesses reporting lower revenues and staffing reductions.
Among the impacted business owners is Jeff Kirkeeng. He used to run a ceramics studio from his home in Imperial Beach.
But as sewage pollution has worsened, “tourism plummeted in Imperial Beach in the matter of a few months after I'd had a business that had been growing for 14 years,” he said.
Kirkeeng had to shut down, in part, because it was getting harder to keep customers, he said.
The county report found that the public’s overall awareness has increased in recent years as pollution has also worsened over the past five years.
“The findings also identify potential impacts to public schools, with impacted districts experiencing larger reductions in enrollment and average daily attendance than other school districts in the region,” the staff report read.
Supervisor Paloma Aguirre represents South County. She said quantifying the losses can help bring solutions, including to help pressure on Mexico to improve its wastewater treatment system.
“This is what we bring to the state to ask for more aid. This is what we bring to the federal government to ask for more aid," Aguirre said. "And this is why we doubled down on our efforts that we're spearheading here at the county to take the bull by the horns and actually fix this problem ourselves.”
Earlier this month, county leaders approved a plan to start looking into whether the county can build infrastructure that would treat flows in the river before they enter the ocean.
Kirkeeng is hopeful the Tijuana River and ocean will one day be sewage-free. A few months ago, he found his business a new home by the Imperial Beach pier.
He said offering his community a place to create art and ride bikes is still worth it.
“It’s hard to find a community like this,” he said. “And, I would say, if it’s clean again, it’s great, you know? But we live in a world where we make pollution. I mean, we're part of the problem, so we have to be the solution too.”
The county board is expected to receive additional economic analysis as part of the report on tourism, recreation, property values and more next month.
