skip to main content

Listen

Read

Watch

Schedules

Programs

Events

Give

Account

Donation Heart Ribbon

Study Says Prop. 19 Unlikely To Affect Drug Groups’ Revenues

Audio

Aired 10/13/10

A new study by the Rand Corporation says Proposition 19, that would legalize marijuana in California, would pinch Mexican drug smugglers' pocketbooks. But Proposition 19 would not pack the wallop backers advertise.

A new study by the Rand Corporation says Proposition 19, that would legalize marijuana in California, would pinch Mexican drug smugglers' pocketbooks. But Proposition 19 would not pack the wallop backers advertise.

During the last few years, it's been stated widely that 60 percent of drug groups' revenues come from marijuana. Proponents of Proposition 19 say therefore, legalizing marijuana in California will curtail traffickers' profits.

But Beau Kilmer, who helped write the Rand study, says the 60 percent figure is wrong. Kilmer says nationwide, it's more like 15 to 26 percent. And he says California is just a fraction of that.

"California accounts for about one-seventh of U.S. marijuana consumption. Hence, if Proposition 19 effects only revenues from supplying marijuana to California, revenue losses would be very small, only 2- to 4 percent," says Kilmer.

The study says legalizing marijuana in California could cut into Mexican drug groups' profits if the pot grown legally in California was smuggled around the U.S. and sold cheaper than Mexican pot. But the report says that's unlikely.

Kyle Kazan is a member of a group of law enforcement officers who back Proposition 19. He used to be a police officer in Torrance, California.

He says Proposition 19 will not immediately put Mexican drug groups out of business. "They have other drugs that they can sell. But it is a great start in the right direction and at least it takes away some of their profit," says Kazan.

The Rand study says it's unclear if a drop in drug groups' profits leads to a drop in violence. The study theorizes it could increase in the short term.

Historically, drug groups expand into new illegal activities when one becomes unprofitable.

Comments

Avatar for user 'PabloKoh'

PabloKoh | October 13, 2010 at 6:56 a.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

In July Rand said Prop 19 would drop the price of cannabis by 80%. Now it says it will only effect 2-4% of cartel profits? This just smells fishy. It either drops the price significantly and effects the profit or it doesn't. It was almost like the ONDCP changed it's mind and comissioned another study by Rand to support today's talking points.

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'randolphslinky'

randolphslinky | October 13, 2010 at 8:58 a.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

Spin doctors. It's more than fishy that one study shows one thing and another something so contrary. There will likely always be people who will use drugs casually, some will use the hard drugs. What is the cost to society if you lock them up or you treat them? Locking people up who aren't violent is really expensive - in CA I've heard around 70K a year. The other huge cost is the enforcement of this and the violence it creates around the sources that provide the illegal product. We need to be realistic about the approach to handling this issue. Drugs are not a true path to happiness and fulfillment, but without an education, without hope, and without maturity and balance, I think we can be too heavy handed and create more problems for ourselves than the actual use does.

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'randolphslinky'

randolphslinky | October 13, 2010 at 9:05 a.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

Correction: It appears the average cost of housing per inmate in CA is about 47K. Still a lot of money.

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'mjs123'

mjs123 | October 13, 2010 at 1:29 p.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

Unless there are countless gargantuan corporations that will cultivate and manufacture pot for the masses and can distribute pot faster than the cartels, the drug cartels are still in business.

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'shmian805'

shmian805 | October 13, 2010 at 1:58 p.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

RAND's research centers are federally funded. Therefore RAND's data is going to be manipulated to fit the federal agenda. This would also explain the discrepancies as mentioned by PabloKoh.

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'randolphslinky'

randolphslinky | October 13, 2010 at 3:54 p.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

@mjs123
You can buy US made cigarettes around the world - it's a huge business, you can sure bet that if marijuana were made legal you won't need to buy it from a Mexican cartel. Besides, from what I hear the weed south of the border isn't nearly as good as what is produced here. Those who want to use it for it's medicinal or recreational benefit could be sure they are getting good weed without any street thugs getting rich off it, AND we can tax it. In a state that can't balance a budget and can't stop people from smoking pot anyway, I would think we'd wise up. Imagine all the people, leaving life in peace.

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'mjs123'

mjs123 | October 13, 2010 at 9:09 p.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

Dear God:
Please bring back the late 1980s and early 1990s when this drug thing was under control with a great economy for everyone. Please bring back the leaders and the people that put these drugs under control during that time period. These pro Prop 19 people are being controlled by pot. Their minds are altered and they think they need pot everyday to live. Oh, God, help us all.

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'mjs123'

mjs123 | October 13, 2010 at 11:20 p.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

We do not have anyone that is a role model in this decade. Not like the Mother Teresa's, Nancy Reagans, etc. of the 1980s. Morals are down the drain and there is no freaking role model. Everyone is just greedy SOBs that want to rip off taxpayers and people. Bring back the Reagans. Nancy Reagan was the "only" First Lady who got off her a s s and visited drug rehabs, drug treatment centers, and schools to preach a drug-free America. No one is doing that today.
"Evidence suggests drug use and abuse significantly declined during the Reagan presidency. According to research conducted by the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan, more young people in the 1980s were saying no to drugs. High school seniors using marijuana dropped from 50.1% in 1978 to 36% in 1987,to 12% in 1991 and the percentage of students using other drugs decreased similarly. Psychedelic drug use dropped from 11% to 6%, cocaine from 12% to 10%, and heroin from 1% to 0.5%."

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'spyne'

spyne | October 23, 2010 at 7:19 p.m. ― 3 years, 11 months ago

search on google: mjs123 prop19 -> 122 hits. I'm pretty sure there is a group funding negative web commentary. I'm pretty sure mjs123 is being payed to do this, and I'm pretty sure his/her protests to the contrary will be vehement.

( | suggest removal )