California’s gubernatorial election is wide-open, with seven prominent Democrats and two high profile Republicans vying for the seat.
Former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell recently suspended his campaign and resigned his seat in Congress after numerous allegations of sexual assault were first reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN.
For the Democrats, that leaves former U.S. House Rep. Katie Porter; billionaire hedge fund manager turned liberal activist Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former California State Controller Betty Yee; former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra; former Mayor of Los Angeles Antonio Villaraigosa; and California State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond
There are also two Republicans–Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, and former Fox News host Steve Hilton–who have consistently polled at or near the top of the field.
And because the state runs a top-two primary system, where all candidates appear on the same primary ballot and the top two advance to the general, those two Republicans might be hoping for a tie.
That could result in two Republican candidates appearing on the general election ballot in November, locking Democrats out of the governor’s mansion for the first time in fifteen years.
“It would be a disaster for Democratic voters if that were to be the case,” Will Rodriguez-Kennedy, chair of the San Diego County Democratic Party, said. “And for California in general.”
Rodriguez-Kennedy said this outcome would be undemocratic, and go against the will of the people.
“It should not be a possibility that the minority party, the people who represent the least amount of voters, gets to win because of some technicality,” Rodriguez-Kennedy said.
In the past three gubernatorial elections, one Democrat and one Republican advanced to the general election, and no Republican candidate received more than 40% of the vote.
But Cole Marting, executive director of the San Diego Young Republicans, said the top two primary system put Republicans at a disadvantage.
“Historically, this has been terrible for conservatives and Republicans up and down the state of California,” Marting said. “So often the other side is gaming the system, putting–and elevating maybe–low quality conservatives or Republicans that don't stand a chance to win, but just to split the vote so that they can get two leftist liberals into the general election.”
Marting said the impact has been especially noticeable on down-ballot races.
“This has largely been painful at the legislative level, right,” Marting said. “The state Assembly and the state Senate, where over and over and over again, we're seeing that two Democrats are advancing to the general election. And this is really bad for, I think, democracy in general.”
It turns out these two party leaders actually agree on something.
“I think all parties should have a candidate in the general election,” Rodriguez-Kennedy said. “And I think each of the parties should put forward their best idea.”
And Marting had similar thoughts.
“Maybe we need to start looking at a system that goes back to having a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot to restore, you know what I– in my belief, is the right thing to do, which is have two opposing ideas face off against each other and let the voters decide,” Marting said.
San Diego State University political science professor Bryan Adams says Proposition 14, approved by voters in 2010 to implement the top-two system, was intended to moderate electoral results.
Adams said primary voters are more likely to hold extreme views that don’t necessarily represent the broader electorate, and this can lead to more extreme candidates advancing to the general election.
“[One] goal here was the idea that this greater competition will lead to more moderate candidates,” Adams said. “For example, a lot of these Democratic districts, you would get a progressive Democrat running against a more moderate Democrat, the more moderate Democrat would have a big advantage there, because they can also pull on the–the small number of Republican voters as well who prefer the moderate to the progressive.”
Research from the Unite Institute, a nonprofit civic engagement organization, says that California's legislature became less polarized between 2013 and 2018. It was one of only five states to see that type of shift.
But Adams said that system might not be perfect for every election.
“I think there's a strong argument to be made that the top two primary works better in state legislative races than it does in a gubernatorial race,” Adams said. “Because gubernatorial races are so much more high profile that, even in a state like California that's overwhelmingly Democrat, it's still plausible a Republican could win that gubernatorial race if they were a really good candidate.”
The Democratic field is narrowing. Swalwell, once a leading candidate, is out. And a recent statewide SurveyUSA poll, sponsored by KGTV and the San Diego Union Tribune, had Tom Steyer at 21% with no other democrat in double digits.
But the potential for a Republican face off in November has party leaders like Rodriguez-Kennedy thinking it’s time for a change.
“If this were to happen, I suspect two things would happen immediately,” Rodriguez-Kennedy said. “The campaign to repeal–to recall the governor would start in conjunction with whatever constitutional amendment we have to make to repeal the jungle primary, because we will never want to do this again.”
The primary election in California is set for June 2 and local county officials will begin mailing ballots in May. You can learn more about all the elections and other items on the ballot at the KPBS voter hub.
