The latest spending plan from the San Diego Association of Governments envisions some $125 billion in regional transportation improvements over the next 25 years, with the goal of creating a more sustainable and efficient way of moving throughout the county.
However, SANDAG's 2025 Regional Plan anticipates far less spending than in 2021, when the agency proposed a $163 billion plan over 30 years.
Regional Plans are updated every four years. They provide a blueprint for investments that SANDAG believes will be feasible based on revenues and costs over a certain timeframe.
This new plan retreats from some of the high expectations and big ideas from the 2021 Regional Plan, including the proposed Purple Line and an airport trolley. Instead, SANDAG is focusing on improving systems that already exist today.
“What's different is that we took an approach based on more information that we have now,” CEO of SANDAG Mario Orso said. “Both from the assumptions of revenues as well as cost of projects. And we scale it down to manage our realities.”
Those realities include a decision in 2022 to nix the road user charge that would have charged drivers per mile traveled. Opposition from the public and elected officials doomed that plan and the transit funding that would have come from it.
“It's both looking at the viability of those big ideas and a more realistic look at what revenue would take to do that. And where do we find that revenue?” Joe LaCava, vice chair of the SANDAG board and San Diego City Council president said.
And further analysis of those big ideas led the SANDAG staff and board to reconsider — and focus on delivering more achievable projects in the near term.
Those projects include significant investment in the region’s highway system, and a major expansion of the rapid bus network.
“There was a lot of disappointment that some of the very ambitious projects were downscaled, most notably the Purple Line,” said Leif Gensert, vice president of RideSD, a local transit advocacy group.
SANDAG officials told KPBS the work on the latest spending plan involved balancing the most ambitious goals with the financial limits.
“It's wonderful to have big visions and put out great ideas for the future. But if they can't be done, what's the point?” Lesa Heebner, chair of the SANDAG board and mayor of Solana Beach said. “So we have to be realistic now and live within our means. Get more projects delivered–and sooner.”
Ten year outlook
The projects that the agency believes can be financed and potentially completed by 2035 provide a picture of short-term priorities expected to achieve the state-mandated emissions reduction. Projects planned for 2036 - 2050 will most likely be reshaped by future updates to the regional plan, according to SANDAG.
The Regional Plan also incorporates a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) as required by state law. A primary goal of this SCS is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 19% by 2035 compared to a 2005 baseline.
“We have a time to– in the regional plan, to achieve certain goals for the emission reduction. And that's 2035. So that's the goal there,” Orso said.
In just the next ten years, SANDAG wants to spend $41.8 billion on operations, maintenance, and various capital projects to improve the system and reach the emissions reduction goal.
Transit
The largest portion of SANDAG’s proposed spending would be for public transportation; 58% – more than $72 billion – of the $125.2 billion plan. That includes e than more than $19.5 billion dollars over the next ten years, nearly half of all spending in the next decade.
This money will go to supporting San Diego Metropolitan Transit System (SDMTS) bus and trolley service, North County Transit District (NCTD) COASTER, SPRINTER and BREEZE busses, and building or improving infrastructure for those agencies’ routes, including the LOSSAN corridor on which Amtrak’s Pacific Surfliner operates.
More than one third of the next decade’s transit dollars would go to operations; fare revenues do not cover the cost of service for either SDMTS or NCTD, the two transit agencies in the region. As a result, SANDAG will allocate nearly $6.9 billion to pay for the cost of service over the next decade.
“The state, you know, could really probably up their game and give us a little bit more operations dollars,” Heebner said.
The next largest share of transit spending will create more than forty new rapid bus routes around the region. SANDAG officials say that during their outreach, the public made it clear that they want faster, more reliable and more convenient transit.
“[When users have] information that they can make that trip in certain time periods, that allows them to plan their trip, but it makes it attractive also,” Orso said. “So that's why we are looking at the rapids with different tools in the toolbox to try to make the service more reliable.”
The Regional Plan proposes spending $5.1 billion to create these new rapid routes over the next 10 years, according to a KPBS analysis of the plan.
Four existing rapid bus routes have among the highest ridership in the SDMTS system, according to a SDMTS press release from last August.
But Gensert with RideSD questions whether these rapid routes will truly be rapid.
“They call them next gen rapid. That's not a term that is particularly well defined,” Gensert said. “It seems very much like they're going out of their way not calling it Bus Rapid Transit.”
Bus Rapid Transit, or BRT, has well-defined, internationally recognized standards, according to Gensert. “If you're going to have dedicated guideways on the center of the highway where only busses go and no cars, only busses; if you make them fast, if you implement all-door boarding; if you have all of these great proven, procedures, technology that will make a bus fast, then we're all for that,” Gensert said.
That’s why a big part of the rapid bus network plan is creating managed lanes and direct access ramps on several highways throughout the county.
“The concept as it relates to transit is to provide a lane in the highways or whatever roadway, but especially on the highways, that will give them preference or provide them again, that reliability of time travel, because you can't you can't calculate [arrival time] if they're stuck in traffic,” Orso said.
SANDAG’s leadership agrees that’s the best way to get more people on transit, while improving service for those who already choose it.
“When it comes to transit, there has been, in the past, a philosophy that we just need more transit lines. We just need more buses going in more places to serve more populations in our region,” LaCava said. “And I think there is a greater realization…that no, that is not what's actually attracting ridership. What's attracting ridership is when you have more frequent service, more predictable service, longer hours during, especially, the work days.”
The agency also projects spending about $4.3 billion, or roughly 22% of the next decade’s transit budget, on several improvements to the LOSSAN corridor. But the timetable for some of those improvements, like the realignment of tracks through Del Mar, is still up in the air, and heavily dependent on state and federal grant money.
Complete Corridors
SANDAG expects to spend more than $25 billion by 2050 on improvements to the region’s highway systems — building what SANDAG calls “complete corridors.” $11.5 billion of that money is expected to be spent over the next ten years
More than one third — $4.1 billion — of the Complete Corridors budget, will go to creating “managed lanes” and their connectors by 2035, according to a KPBS analysis.
These travel lanes can be used by buses, carpools, motorcycles, and those who pay a fee. Right now, I-15 has managed lanes between SR-52 and SR-78.
They also plan to build several direct access ramps for vehicles using managed lanes to enter and exit the highway without merging across traffic. $255 million is expected to be directed to building three direct access ramps, on I-15 at Clairemont Mesa Blvd and near SDSU, and on I-5 at Voigt Drive at UCSD, by 2035.
But Orso said the Board of Directors will ultimately decide what those managed lanes are used for in the future–either as bus-only lanes, or also allowing regular traffic. The uncertainty leaves advocates like Gensert less hopeful.
“They can go to the advocates and say, these are managed lanes. They're for buses only,” Gensert said. “But then on the other side, they can go to the car driver and say, well, it's going to be an HOV, or maybe not even HOV lanes, or we're going to expand the highway so you have more space on the existing corridor.”
Managed lanes can actually increase Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) which is closely tied to vehicle emissions, according to Appendix N of the Regional Plan.
Although SANDAG walked back several highway expansions, the plan still projects spending more than $1.9 billion on expanding I-5, I-805, and SRs 15, 52 and 78 to build those managed lanes.
Orso said that the plan recognizes the potential for increases in vehicle miles travelled, but still achieves its climate goals by 2035.
“Greenhouse emission reduction is very important. And vehicle miles travelled, sometimes may not be the best proxy as correlation,” Orso said.
The plan expects to spend about $1.7 billion on highway maintenance and operations over the next ten years as well.
The Agency says an additional, nearly $6.5 billion will go to repairing, repaving, and improving local streets and roads in the next decade.
Active Transportation Bikeways
The Regional Plan identifies roughly $5.5 billion to connect the region’s bike networks by 2050.
It calls for spending $1.2 billion over the next ten years to expand the regional bike network — roughly 3% of total regional spending in the next decade.
Antoinette Meier, Senior Director of Regional Planning with SANDAG, noted that a portion of the local streets and roads money will be used to improve bike lanes when roads are repaired or improved.
Meier also said the 2025 plan includes more money for active transportation than prior plans, and that the regional network has been expanded significantly in recent years.
“So, even if we had more money, I think we have a pretty complete and integrated regional network already,” Meier said.
Gensert however says there is still plenty of room for improvement — and that investments in this mode of transit complement others.
“If we had a cycling infrastructure, if we had proper bike lockers at the stops, that at least would encourage some of the people to take their bike to the bus stop,” Gensert said.
One big project in this pipeline is the Coastal Rail Trail, a regional project to connect the beach cities from San Diego through Oceanside with a multi-use trail for walking, hiking and biking. The plan would direct about $196 million to creating several segments of this trail.
The plan also calls for $135 million for the San Diego River Trail and Bikeway in Mission Valley; $123 million for the Inland Rail Trail that will stretch from Escondido to Oceanside; and $94 million on the Pomerado Bikeway in Rancho Bernardo.
Micro-Transit: Flexible Fleets
The Regional Plan projects spending $206 million in the next decade on creating so-called “Flexible Fleets” microtransit services in 36 defined areas around the County. These will be neighborhood shuttles that operate as ride-hail services within certain geographical boundaries.
“What we've seen is, cities that are not necessarily embracing transit in the traditional form are very excited about Flexible Fleets,” LaCava said. “Very targeted shuttles within their city have really proven to be another way to get folks out of their cars, and into an alternative transportation.”
And Heebner said that these shuttles have been a way to bridge the gap between those who support transit and those who just want to drive.
“There has been a tension between people who want transit and people who want more, you know, roads and stuff,” Heebner said. “Now that we have Flexible Fleets, it seemed to have calmed that tension a lot.”
Neighborhood shuttles are expected to operate in places like Downtown San Diego, Pacific Beach, Clairemont, and North Park; and in cities around the county including Chula Vista, El Cajon, Escondido, Oceanside, and Solana Beach.
SANDAG is currently soliciting proposals for grants from its Flexible Fleets pilot program, and grants expected to be issued later this year.
See transit network image for picture of future Flexible Fleets clouds.
Where does the money come from?
SANDAG expects nearly $71.5 billion, or 55% of their projected revenues through 2050, to come from local sources; another roughly $33 billion from the federal government and about $25.7 billion from the state.
The largest local funding source is TransNet, the half-cent sales tax that voters approved in 1987 and extended for another 40 years in 2004. SANDAG projects nearly $10.5 billion in revenue from TransNet through 2050.
Another $10.4 billion is expected to come from the general funds of local cities and the county.
Nearly $5.1 billion is expected from the Transportation Development Act, a statewide sales tax for transportation. And the agency expects about $17 billion total to come from passenger fares, FastTrak managed lane revenues, and local gas taxes.
About $7.6 billion will come from the State Highway Account for operations and maintenance, and $3.1 billion will come from the SB1 Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation Account.
And SANDAG is projecting about $15.7 billion to come from the Federal Transit Administration; an additional roughly $6.3 from the U.S. Department of Transportation; and about $3.7 billion from Federal Rail Administration funds.
Most of these revenue sources, including TransNet, the State Highway Account, and Federal grants, are tied to specific uses. For example, 38% of TransNet funds must go towards infrastructure on “major corridors” including highways and rail lines; only 16.5% can be used for transit services or operations.
The agency is also hoping to collect more than $18 billion from future ballot measures that would enact sales taxes for transit, but that is reliant on voter approval.
“There was, I think, a previous era of, people will believe in what we're doing. They'll support tax measures to be able to fund that,” LaCava said. “And I think we're starting to say that there is much more sensitivity in the voters in terms of what they're willing to support.”
2050 and beyond
$83.4 billion of SANDAG’s $125.2 billion plan is expected to be spent after 2035, on projects that would break ground sometime before 2050.
Many of these ideas, like the Purple Line or a trolley to the airport, would have a significant impact on the entire region. But the amount of money they would require, and the time it will take to plan, design, and clear these ambitious projects, has pushed their timelines out past the 2035 deadline.
Still, the Regional Plan does outline how much money they would cost, and provides a snapshot of what would be required to accomplish these projects.
Building the Purple Line as a light rail trolley line from the border to Mission Valley would cost more than $11 billion, according to SANDAG. Extending it further to Sorrento Valley is no longer in the Regional Plan.
The Airport Connector light rail line would cost nearly $2.8 billion to complete by 2050. In the meantime, the plan expects to spend $88 million on two rapid bus routes connecting the airport to downtown and the Old Town transit station.
A streetcar route around central San Diego could also be in the city’s future, at a cost of about $1 billion. It would create a loop that rings Balboa Park, going from downtown up through Hillcrest, across University Heights to North Park, and down through South Park and Golden Hill to loop back to downtown.
Rapid bus route 255 is in the plan to create a precursor to the streetcar by 2035, at a cost of $72 million.
SANDAG leaders say that while they’re not giving up, the focus must be on improving the service that exists now before pursuing these endeavors.
Which means, for now, SANDAG’s plan for the future is reducing travel times on the highways and hopefully making the buses faster.
