S1: Welcome in San Diego. It's Jade Hindman on this episode of KPBS Midday Edition. Tension is high on our faultlines. So what's the likelihood of an earthquake? And how prepared is San Diego County to handle it? This is KPBS Midday Edition. Connecting our communities through conversation. Here in California. Um , you know , they're there. The San Andreas fault is a constant presence in our daily lives , whether we pay attention to it or not. But this century has really been a relatively quiet one for the 800 mile fault line. New research suggests that it's tectonic stress is the highest it's been in 1000 years , if you can believe that. Geologist and earthquake expert Pat Abbott joins me now to talk about that. He's a professor emeritus at San Diego State University. Professor Abbott. Glad to have you here.
S2: Good to be here.
S1: So help us visualize the San Andreas fault line. I mean , how central is it to California?
S2: Well , it's very , very central California. And really , it's the definition of the , say , the western part of California. We go all the way almost up to the Oregon border , come down through the San Francisco Bay area. Run along the side of the Peninsula Ranges to near the end of the Salton Sea. That whole long fault there is accommodating the opening of the Gulf of California for the last 6 million years as that ocean basin opens. Baja California , Peninsula , San Diego , Los Angeles , Santa Cruz we moved northwestward. In other words , our earthquakes are not just something historic. They are. They have been going on for millions of years.
S1: Well , I want to talk about this recent study , which measures the tectonic stress of the fault line. What is tectonic stress and why does it matter?
S2: Well , in essence , why I was just describing opening of the Gulf of California moving the Baja California peninsula , if you think about the energy would take like if we were a contractor and your job was to move that huge landmass , how much energy would it take? And we could calculate that we know what the rates of the tectonic stress are , that is to say , tens of miles deep. The the forces , the energy that's making the whole system move. We know how much that is , but it doesn't move on the surface along the faults regularly. In other words , we push and you push and you push. The energy is stored and stored , and that's the energy they're talking about. The fact that the push from its depth has not been taken care of by movement at the surface , that energy is stored , and then it is released in large events. The big earthquakes that that we know are coming and , and California has experienced many times.
S1: And so what are the implications of that?
S2: Well , the implications are , you know , we know about the San Andreas fault system from history , from geology. We know about it in prehistory by digging trenches , measuring offset layers , using radiocarbon dates to determine prehistoric earthquakes. And now here with tectonics , where we know the movements and the physicists here converting those movements into energy expended , energy stored. It gives us a greater depth of understanding. And for us to talk about rock movement is one thing. I think it impacts a lot more on people when you hear it as a amount of energy stored , when you look at that number and say , wow , that's an overwhelming number that really gives you some appreciation for the energy that is waiting there that is stored , waiting to be released.
S1: So , you know , we know that there's all of this stored energy. Is does this present a question of if or when a quake happens then.
S2: Well , you know , that's that's one of the things that we geologists struggle with all the time. We're very good in terms of explaining to you why we have these earthquakes , reading when they occurred in the past , we can answer almost any question you want except for one. And unfortunately , that's the number one question people want to know. When's the next big one? And we don't know. We can look at the whole San Andreas and say the northern part moved in. 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The central segment moved in 1857 and the fort to an earthquake. The real big motion for the bottom third of the San Andreas Fault. The part nearest to us hasn't had a really big one since around the year 1690 , although it had some significant movements back in 1812. The main point being looking at the historic record shows us we're not getting our share of earthquakes down here , and that's the stored energy that the physicists with their model have been trying to to calculate and tell us about.
S1: So then we may not know when an earthquake happens , but does this study then show that if one should happen , it's going to be big because of all the stored energy?
S2: Well , you know , you could have smaller earthquakes. No , no , not one. Earthquake doesn't necessarily release the all the energy , but we're seeing the larger , larger picture of what could happen. You know , let me jump to a very recent event , which is really an exact analogue of our setting here. And go back to June. Here in Venezuela , they had two same kind of motion faults. That is to say right lateral strike slips wear movement earth movements horizontal. They had a magnitude 7.2 earthquake at 12 miles depth. That means the Earth ruptured at that depth. And then less than a minute later they had a magnitude 7.5 at six miles depth on a nearby fault , a doublet , two separate earthquakes , a 7.2 doing destruction and death. Before that shaking had stopped. Here came a 7.53 times as strong. So if I look at history and say what happened there , we have the exact same system here. We could have won in the earthquake , in the sevens on the San Jacinto fault , which is right next to the San Andreas fault. So we could have that same kind of a doublet of two very large earthquakes occurring , kind of like in a , a boxing metaphor , a one two punch. You're you're shaking with one earthquake and then another one , in this case three times larger starts before the shaking of the first one had stopped. And that's not saying that's exactly what will happen , but we can say that's a very reasonable scenario of what could happen here in Southern California specifically , we're talking up in the Cajon Pass area there , north of San Fernando Valley , San Bernardino along that region.
S1: So all right , let's imagine a magnitude seven earthquake did strike California. What could that look like here in San Diego? I mean , how might it look different here than other parts of the state or even other parts of the country.
S2: Well , the first off there is the distance. Now for for us in San Diego , the distance to the Salton Sea would be like a straight line from here to the east side of the Salton Sea would be 80 or 90 miles , depending on where you are. And that's good news in the sense that as earthquake waves travel , they weaken. But that is not the only part of the picture. It also then depends on what kind of rock you are built on. Are you on soft , loose sediment which can amplify the shaking , or are you on harder rock which would have a different kind of shaking? And then buildings themselves have their own frequencies. Now an earthquake on the San Andreas for us at that kind of a distance , say 90 miles , the buildings that would be shaken , the most received , the most shaking would be the taller buildings. These are long period seismic waves , and they tend to shake the tall buildings that go back and forth over a longer time span. So in other words , the earthquake doesn't mean the same thing to everybody , even as your nearby neighbors. But the range of things , um , uh , of energy is felt. They're going to be very real challenges. We're not going to see the kind of collapse we see in Venezuela with same earthquakes , but we have better building standards at the same time. If you get that , let's just say we use the Venezuelan one , the 7.2 and then 7.5 up there at Cajon Pass. There's going to be serious destruction in the in , let's say , the greater Los Angeles area. And in San Diego too , we might have some significant destruction , but not widespread. Not not not total disaster collapse kinds of things for us. It would uh. Here in San Diego , it would be sort of picking , identifying where the bad bridges , old buildings. In other words , where the weaker buildings are that would suffer the damage. A lot of the things built. More recently , I'm going to say following earthquakes in 1971 , San Fernando 1989 , Loma Prieta , 1994 , Northridge building codes changed here every time. So the newer buildings are built better. So bit by bit , we're increasing the ability of buildings to stay as they're supposed to be rather than collapsing on falling on us. So we will have isolated , um , masses of damage. And it's also depended on on time of day. For most people , the best place to be is home and bed in the middle of the night. Uh , depending on where people are at the time of day and earthquake occurs is also a big factor in terms of the number of injuries that occur. And I hate to say the word , but , uh , deaths as well. Right.
S1: Right. You know , professor , I , we like back around 2018 , 2019 , we spoke , um , about the Rose Canyon fault line. And you mentioned something then called liquefaction. And I'm wondering if you can explain what that is and how that might present challenges here in San Diego.
S2: Oh , certainly. Now , we've just been talking about the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. Basically , for us on both sides of the Salton Sea. So the fault system is so wide that the Rose Canyon fault , which basically comes on shore there at La Jolla and runs along Interstate five , through downtown or out underneath the Coronado Bridge , there is a parallel fault. We expect an earthquake , a magnitude of the maximum. What we expect or anticipate is a 6.9 , a serious earthquake. Now , liquefaction means that let's just take the sands around mission Bay , for example. Those sands , you know how you could step on them with your foot , and you make a footprint and you squeeze the water out? Well , a seismic wave. Visualize those things rolling in circles and vertical circles. They can lift those sand grains up , which means if the sand grains aren't touching , then then it's water that's holding up the buildings. And this water saturated sand being disturbed can literally flow , act as a liquid. And that's the liquefaction. And of course , buildings have to be designed with care to be able to handle something like that. For us , the liquefaction also would extend between mission Bay and San Diego Bay San Diego Airport , for example. In some of the scenarios , the planning scenarios , you say , well , the airstrips there may fracture and break due to liquefaction beneath them. Another thing , if we look at our sewage lines , the sewage lines from San Diego flow across that area there , that airport area over to the treatment plant on the south end of Point Loma. Those sewage lines may well fracture and break due to liquefaction. In other words , there's unstable foundations. Unstable foundations can liquefy and flow. Therefore , brittle structures like concrete airstrips or or pipes , sewage pipes can break. And there's the significant amount of infrastructure damage , not just homes that people live in.
S1: Well , lots to to consider and prepare for in the event of an earthquake. I've been speaking with Pat Abbott , geologist and earthquake expert. He's a professor emeritus at San Diego State University. Professor Abbott , thank you so very much for being here.
S2: Thank you.
S1: As we just heard , natural disasters like earthquakes can happen at any moment. And that means it's never a bad time to think about emergency preparedness. We wanted to know what would happen if a major disaster like an earthquake struck San Diego , what protocol is in place and how we can prepare. Joining me to talk about it is Daryl Arbuthnot. He's director of San Diego County's Office of Emergency Services. Daryl , welcome to midday Edition.
S3: Hi , Jade. How are you?
S1: I'm good. And I'm so glad you're here for this conversation. Um , listen , when talking about emergency response , it's it's really helpful to think about the different stages of a disaster before , you know , during and after. Um , so let's talk about what happens before the emergency , the phase we're we're in now. What does preparedness look like at the county level?
S3: Um , well , from a county standpoint , um , we're always kind of preparing for any type of disaster earthquake specifically. Um , we look at our communication alerting systems. We look at our training that we do within the Office of Emergency Services , and then our outreach to the community and ensure they're prepared and , and have a game plan before an earthquake occurs.
S1: And what about the protocol during a disaster? What plan do we have in place for , say , a major earthquake?
S3: So yes , what happens? We have the ability here at the Office of Emergency Service to activate our emergency operations center. And what that does allow us to coordinate closely with our with our partners in the region here and our partners is pretty vast. Obviously , there's the 18 incorporated cities and the tribal lands and , and our other agencies that are within the county here. And we all stand up , either our AOCs , we communicate and we coordinate and we support each other. And the first responders that actually respond to some of the challenges are out there.
S1: A couple of things you said there. One you said you're able to activate. What exactly does that look like and what are and explain AOCs.
S3: So our emergency operations center is a coordination center. We're known as the Operational area Emergency Operations Center. So we are actually the next phase where the cities , if they have an emergency or some disaster , they go to the county , which is us , the operational area emergency operations center. And then of course , a large scale disaster like an earthquake. We would go to the state California OES operation , Office of Emergency Services and in inactivation. What we do is we've got several people that come in that are qualified and trained to actually manage very aspects of an emergency. For example , standing up local assistance centres , shelters , feeding , working with Red cross. So a lot of those coordinated efforts , even with your animals and we support obviously those that that need additional assistance. So all that is coordinated out of this office here across the county.
S1: How do you do that when roads are crumbled and infrastructure is is also ruined? How do you get from point A to point B and how do you provide those services?
S3: Sometimes challenging actually what we are doing , the county of San Diego is doing right now , and we're working closely with our partners , with our regional partners , is we've got a work group together where we meet weekly , and we we work with our public works folks and , and all the different entities that would have some aspect or some responsibility in the county , and they go out and clear roads. Now we identify those. We know what our flood zones are. We look at all the different aspects that are going to cause likely cause us problems. But the other challenging piece that occurs is communications. Often with earthquake occurs. We have cell sites go down , so our communications are hampered. Sometimes our radio communications are more of a challenge. So all those things are factored into our plans. Now that we're working on for redundant systems to ensure we'll still be able to respond. There may be some delays. And , you know , in the past , they've always taught a you should be to be sustainable for 72 hours on your own , because we may not be able to get to you. And and that's why our outreach to the community is important that we do ahead of time.
S1: So then what does this being sustainable entail? How do how do people prepare? Yeah. Go ahead I'm sorry.
S3: How do they prepare for that? There are several things he can do. The first thing is make a plan. Have a plan. Um , decide how your family is going to , you know , reconnect or connect together. Because oftentimes these happen in the middle of the day. And some some of the family members are at school , work different portions and how are they going to communicate? How are you going to address children , the elderly , those in special needs? And then of course , your pets. Oftentimes there's pets that need to be accounted for. The second thing I would say to consider is receiving accurate information until and there's there's something our residents can do today and that's download our Alert Sandiego app. And what that does is it'll give them real time information , not just for earthquakes , but any disaster and real. And it's real time information that we're putting out. We also are standing up a website at our website. You'll get there's information on there for families to prepare themselves. And just a few more things they can do is , for example , build supplies , a go kit. And I'll talk about that briefly. But um , like having a water supply or non-perishable food. Um , I actually have , um , MREs meals ready to , to eat. And there it's dried food that you can add water and obviously you can nourish yourself. Sturdy shoes , blankets , first aid kits. These are the types of things that families should have somewhere strategically placed in their homes today , so that if things occur , they can respond quickly. And then , of course , is reducing hazards within the home. We all have sometimes tall furniture , pictures , those things hanging on the wall that can tip over and actually cause additional damage , and then understanding some of the utilities around your home , how to shut your gas off electricity , off water , those sorts of things. So there's many things that residents can do preemptively to kind of reduce those things if they occur.
S1: And as I hear you talking , it also makes me think that , uh , you know , what should someone do when an earthquake strikes? Do you run out outside? Do you hide under , you know , a desk , go in a doorway? I mean , what is what's the the what's your what someone do to stay safe. Yeah.
S3: Yeah. Yeah , there's there's several things that we were all taught. And it'd probably give the gardener middle or grade school. And that was , you know , you stopped dropping covered or hold on and you know if you're home. We encourage you to stay in the house. Don't run outside. Uh , and it worked to stay inside because oftentimes there's falling things like , um , during the 94 earthquake. Uh , there was chimneys were falling off homes , off single homes , and those bricks were loose. So we say you drop cover and then hold on. And then , of course , the second thing is kind of damage , uh , a quick a damage assessment. Look around and and make sure there's nothing majorly your house is , you know , really compromised. Um , check for injuries on yourself and your loved ones. Uh , going back to the utilities , making sure if you smell gas , you know how to shut it off. Um , avoiding any flames. If there's any open flames and electrical switches , stay away. Away from your electricity at that time. And then monitor , you know , radios what's going on around you so you can understand the magnitude , where to go , how severe it is , if there's , uh , collapsed things or blocked roads , all sorts of things.
S1: Um , you know , you took on this role in February after several decades with the Los Angeles Fire Department coming in with that experience , what concerns do you have about San Diego's ability to respond to a major disaster?
S3: Yeah , I you know , I concern several. You know , I've driven this community. So I have a real time firsthand understanding of some of the dynamics here. And , you know , you look at the Coronado Bridge and , and a lot of the unincorporated parts of the county where the roads , you know , we have frequent wildfires here in this region. And , of course , after a wildfire season , when it gets wet , you get mudslides. So all those things keep me up at night. As you know , if we're prepared , I can share with you with the public. I think with our ability to get our communications out to them and urge them in system. And , you know , during these disasters , what to do is key. And so I mentioned before about Alert San diego.org for them to sign up for. We also have another version of that for accessible access and functional needs folks that have special needs on getting that information. And then there's the wireless emergency alert system. We call it the WIA , and it gives pop ups on what to do. And these systems are intended to give the public real time , accurate , updated information on what to do so that they don't 100% rely on us. We're going to be obviously overwhelmed as a region. And so we want to make sure we're all doing our part. This whole community , part of preparedness is what we're striving for.
S1: You know , what's one piece of advice you'd like to leave listeners with if they take nothing else away from this conversation?
S3: Start today preparing. And , you know , just real quick , I'm going to run to a quick list of things , and I'll give them a resource where they can get this information. But this is an earthquake. Go kit , food and water. You don't seem to most of us kind of overlook that right now. We don't see it as important because we have access to it all the time. But you need to keep that close by and non-perishable food and store it in the garage. Light and communication when these earthquakes occur , you know which you think you can turn a light switch doesn't work. You need spare batteries. You need to make sure your phone you have your mobile phone , but also you have your charging cables to back it up. Medicines and first aid kit. Oftentimes you run a house , you forget these things. And these are going to be critical for you to sustain yourself over the next few days or so. And then the safety rescue stuff , you know , the PPE during Covid , everybody got used to having the mask , but gloves , goggles , a whistle , those sorts of things. Uh , clothing , backup clothing , uh , blankets , sleeping bags and the sanitation stuff. And I'll tell you something that's really important that I think gets overlooked. Often overlooked is getting those important documents and also having cash on hand. We've gone almost to a cashless society , and you need to have small cash on hand. I remember during the 94 earthquake stores , 7-Eleven , those automated systems you couldn't use anymore. So those are the top things I would suggest.
S1: All right. Well , we will actually have a link to that information and all of the resources mentioned at KPBS. I've been speaking with Darryl Arbuthnot. He's director of San Diego County's Office of Emergency Services. And again , you can find information at KPBS. Darryl , thank you so very much , I appreciate you.
S3: Thank you. Jade. Appreciate it.
S1: That's our show for today. I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.
