San Diego is falling behind in its progress toward achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions — a goal it is legally required to meet by 2035 — according to the city's latest Climate Action Plan annual report.
The city's total emissions in 2024, the most recent year with complete data, fell by about 3% compared to 2023. That change was mostly due to the growing supply of clean electricity like solar and wind power and a slight drop in natural gas usage in buildings.
But emissions were 6% higher than they should have been if the city were on track to reach its climate goals, the report found. The city faces a widening gap between those climate goals and its continued dependence on fossil fuels — particularly for transportation, the city's largest emissions source by far.
The report measures emissions from on-road transportation, electricity generation, natural gas use, water supply, wastewater treatment, construction equipment and organic waste in landfills. Transportation makes up 57% of emissions, natural gas use in buildings makes up 21% and electricity makes up 18%.
Net zero emissions means all the carbon emitted through activities in San Diego would have to be recaptured — either through trees, which absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis, or through carbon capture technologies that don't exist yet.
"While there's positive trends in many areas, the results are mixed," said Andrew Martin, San Diego's chief sustainability officer, at the July 7 meeting of the city's Climate Advisory Board. "There is additional progress needed in other areas to meet the long-term goals of the Climate Action Plan."
Housing development is one bright spot in the climate report, which found the vast majority of new homes are being permitted in areas that are less car-dependent and closer to public transit, jobs and neighborhood amenities like grocery stores and parks.
More San Diegans are also switching to electric vehicles, and the city is installing more of the charging stations that encourage EV adoption, the report found.
But that progress has been effectively canceled out by an increase in driving. Vehicle miles traveled, a key metric in the city's Climate Action Plan, have increased by 10% since the pandemic-era low in 2020.
Steve Gelb, transportation co-chair of San Diego 350 and a member of the city's Mobility Advisory Board, said San Diego has good plans for reducing car use. Last year the city adopted a Mobility Master Plan that outlines projects and policies that can encourage more people to walk, bike or take public transit when moving around.
But Gelb said the city's plans are only as good as their implementation.
"We're not implementing any of these ideas because of the lack of funds and the lack of political will," Gelb said. "So the longer we delay, of course, the harder it will be to catch up, until you get to the point where it's insurmountable."
Data in the climate report's appendices show a dramatic drop in the city's work installing new bike lanes, and upgrading existing ones. The number of new and improved bike lane miles peaked in 2021, but has fallen by more than 60% since then.
The drop in bike lane installation is likely to continue this year and next. Budget cuts approved last month eliminated half the city's traffic engineer positions dedicated to redesigning streets with pedestrian, bike and transit improvements.
Kelly Lyndon, co-chair of the San Diego Building Electrification Coalition and a member of the city's Climate Advisory Board, said the cuts to bike lane funding are impacting her own neighborhood of University City.
Plans to install protected bike lanes on a portion of Governor Drive have been put on hold, according to a letter written by the Mobility Advisory Board. That's despite plans for the bike lanes being included in the University Community Plan, which was updated just two years ago.
"There's three schools on that street," Lyndon said. "It would just make it so much safer for our kids to be able to get to their schools if there were protected bike lanes on Governor Drive. So I'm very disappointed that that work has been postponed."
City spokesperson Peter Kelly confirmed Mayor Todd Gloria has directed city staff to restripe Governor Drive without the bike lanes envisioned in the community plan. He attributed the decision to the Transportation Department's limited capacity to redesign streets with bike lanes.
"Should funding become available in the future to implement the roadway reconfiguration envisioned in the University Community Plan, the University Community Planning Group and the University community will be notified and engaged in advance," Kelly said.
Lyndon added San Diego also needs to do more to encourage property owners to replace natural gas appliances like stoves and water heaters with zero-emission electric alternatives.
"There are some state-level policies that are encouraging new construction to be all electric, and we have seen folks making that choice and deciding that it's cleaner and less expensive to build all electric," Lyndon said. "But I don't feel like we've seen any increase in addressing existing buildings and converting them from gas to electric."
San Diego agreed to inventory its greenhouse gas emissions every year as part of a landmark legal settlement reached in 2024. Climate activists had sued the city arguing it was failing to make meaningful progress toward its pledge of net zero emissions by 2035.
Scientists say the world must reach net zero emissions by the middle of the 21st Century to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
City Planning Director Heidi VonBlum said meaningful action on climate change will require cooperation with the state and federal governments.
"The city remains committed to doing its part, but climate change cannot be addressed by cities alone," VonBlum said in a statement included in the climate report. "Lasting progress will require coordinated action across all levels of government, across businesses and institutions, and throughout everyday economic and community life — in San Diego, across California, throughout the United States and around the world."
