Tropical Storm Marie is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday as it moves northwest off the Mexican coast, but forecasters said the chances of the storm directly striking Southern California remain "very low," although rain, high surf and other impacts are increasingly likely over the Labor Day weekend.
Marie was located Tuesday near 15 degrees north latitude and 109 degrees west longitude, and the National Hurricane Center forecast the storm to reach hurricane strength Wednesday while continuing northwest through the holiday weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
"The chances of Marie directly hitting Southern California as a hurricane or tropical storm remain VERY LOW," the NWS said, noting that only a few computer-model projections showed a track close to the region.
Forecasters said there was a high likelihood Marie would maintain a west-to-northwest track away from the West Coast, but moisture from the storm was expected to be drawn into Southern California during the holiday weekend.
There is a 50% to 60% chance of widespread light rainfall of 0.10 to 0.50 inches Sunday through Tuesday, along with a 10% to 15% chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms, according to the NWS.
There is also a 10% to 15% chance of moderate to strong easterly winds developing ahead of the rain, potentially creating fire-weather concerns.
Forecasters expressed greater confidence in significant coastal impacts, with a south-to-southeast swell expected to build over the weekend and continue into Tuesday. Swells generated by Hurricane Karina are also expected to remain in the area.
The most likely scenario would result in high surf advisories for south-facing beaches, particularly Sunday through Monday night, along with very strong rip currents.
Evening high tides are expected to reach 6.5 to 6.8 feet Sunday and about 7 feet Monday, increasing the possibility of coastal flooding in low- lying areas and beach erosion. If peak surf coincides with high tide, moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion could occur, according to the NWS.
"Needless to say, the weather for the upcoming Labor Day weekend may be highly dynamic," the NWS said. "A minor change in the track of Marie could result in significant changes to the current forecast."
Little change is expected before the holiday weekend, when the track of Marie will determine how much tropical moisture, rain and wind reach Southern California.
