We first learned of a major El Niño forming in the Pacific back in June, when the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an advisory for the pattern of warm Pacific Ocean water that can mean a wetter-than-usual winter. Today, the National Weather Service held the first of a planned series of weekly briefings to update the media on the status of El Niño.
Warning Coordination Meteorologist Todd Hall from the LA/Oxnard office said it’s best to think of El Niño at this point as a scene setter. “The outcome is far from certain here. And the important point to remember going forward is that as El Niño sets the kind of the seasonal backdrop or the climate backdrop associated with this pattern,” he said.
Hall said as we move into winter, forecasts will become more accurate and specific. But he said if weather warnings come, he and his fellow meteorologists want to be as certain as they can be, to avoid what you might call the “boy who cried wolf” syndrome.
“As far as event-driven watches and warnings, we want to reserve these for imminent high-confidence hazards that pose a direct threat to life and property,” Hall said.
The Weather Service offices here and in Los Angeles plan to give media briefings on El Niño on Fridays as we head into the winter of 2026-2027.
