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This weekend’s California Republican Party convention was poised to be a drama-filled event. The party held out a slim hope that its two gubernatorial candidates, if they played nicely enough, could lock Democrats out of the November election and reclaim statewide office for the first time in 20 years.
But then President Donald Trump weighed in, backing former Fox News host Steve Hilton over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Now, the state party’s endorsement is far less consequential.
“He screwed over California Republicans yet again,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant, of Trump. “It's just political malpractice to not have done a dual endorsement,” he added. “People were briefing the White House on the situation.”
The weekend’s festivities in San Diego mark the first gathering since the state GOP’s bruising loss last November on Proposition 50, the Democrats’ gerrymandering plan designed to oust five Republicans from Congress in the midterm election. That loss only magnified the state party’s growing irrelevance since the ouster and resignation of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the Bakersfield congressmember who made sure the national GOP didn’t forget about its California members.
The gubernatorial contest, as well as legislative races, had become the new focal points for a party in search of a way out of the political wilderness. Trump’s endorsement probably dashed any hope of a Republican governor, leaving the Legislature as Republicans’ best chance for wins.
'He screwed over California Republicans yet again.'Republican consultant Rob Stutzman on President Donald Trump's emdorsement in the governor's race.
Bianco, who recently made headlines for seizing hundreds of thousands of ballots over claims of alleged voter fraud, is still expected to put up a fight for the 60% of delegate votes required to earn the party endorsement. Hilton will likely consolidate GOP support as loyal base voters fall in line behind Trump. Even without the party’s endorsement, Hilton is well positioned to finish in the top-two in June.
But the president’s nod is practically the kiss of death for a general election candidate in deep blue California, a state where even some Republicans tout bucking the president as a talking point on the campaign trail.
“The big fight if you're trying to be elected governor is actually to have a broad-based appeal in California,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican campaign consultant who used to work for Bianco. “President Trump doesn't provide that.”
Without the drama surrounding the gubernatorial endorsement, Rexroad decided the convention was no longer worth attending. He canceled his flight from Sacramento and his hotel reservation in San Diego, opting instead to send a proxy ballot with another delegate friend. Rexroad planned to back Bianco.
Trump’s popularity has fallen dramatically nationally since the war in Iran began and gas prices have skyrocketed, worsening his already poor standing among heavily Democratic California voters. Both Bianco and Hilton have sought to minimize their support for Trump, as nearly three-quarters of Californians disapprove of him, and many strategists believed the party’s best shot at the governorship was keeping the president out of it.
“The party is relevant in some localities of the state. But on a statewide basis, the Republican Party is like the Democratic Party in Utah,” said Mike Murphy, a former Republican consultant.
“You can’t think of a worse brand than Donald Trump in California,” Murphy said. “If they cancel the Republican state convention, as far as state politics are concerned, it’d make no difference to the outcome.”
Down the ticket, Republicans hope to hold and maybe even pick up additional seats in the state Legislature.
GOP looks down-ballot for an opening
With a brand irretrievably tied to Trump, one strategy for clawing back Republican losses is to focus on more conservative, inland parts of the state in local races. That includes pockets of Southern California, where Latino voters swung heavily in favor of Trump in 2024 and the party picked up three statehouse seats.
“What’s really going to be the difference-maker for Republicans in California is really focusing the ground game on districts that matter,” and raising money, said Jon Fleischman, a longtime Republican consultant. “If we can hold the seats we are capable of holding on a year that looks like a wave year for Democrats, then Republicans will do really well.”
First-time GOP Assemblymembers Jeff Gonzalez of Coachella and Leticia Castillo of Corona are examples. Each ran a successful campaign in their predominately Latino and slightly left-leaning districts in 2024.
Seeking vengeance, a handful of Democrats have lined up to unseat Gonzalez. Meanwhile, Castillo will face an old challenger. Both Republicans will be walking into this weekend with the party’s endorsement already in hand.
Castillo clinched her seat by fewer than 600 votes two years ago, defeating Riverside City Councilmember Clarissa Cervantes, who had more money and name recognition. But Cervantes, who sought to replace her sister, Riverside Democratic state Sen. Sabrina Cervantes, led a campaign that was muddied by revelations of Clarissa Cervantes’ two DUI convictions.
Gonzalez, a retired Marine, flipped his Coachella Valley district in 2024, which swung for Trump by fewer than two percentage points. He faces three other Democrats, including Indio City Councilmember Oscar Ortiz, and so far has amassed a bigger war chest than all of them.
Some Republicans also worry whether the party is headed in the right direction. In San Diego, local infighting over whether a moderate or far-right candidate would be best positioned to succeed term-limited Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones has stunted the party’s ability to back a single candidate.
Jones and the party establishment have backed Ed Musgrove, a San Marcos City Councilmember, while Assemblymember Carl DeMaio and his group Reform California are pushing for two-time unsuccessful candidate Kristie Bruce-Lane.
Republicans could also look to flip a newly competitive San Diego district represented by first-term Democratic lawmaker Catherine Blakespear. The district has been trending leftward since redistricting in 2020 pulled in more parts of liberal San Diego County and dropped portions of more conservative Orange County. Blakespear has significantly outraised her two GOP competitors, Laura Bassett and Armen Kurdian, one of whom could be endorsed this weekend.
Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Niello of Roseville could also face a more difficult than usual path to reelection in a midterm where moderate Republicans in liberal areas will have to fight the anti-Trump momentum.
A challenging picture in the U.S. House
Post-Prop. 50, California’s five remaining incumbent Republican House members face a bleak road to reelection. The districts were redrawn so drastically that several members have chosen to vacate their original seats and seek reelection in different districts.
Rep. Kevin Kiley, a Roseville resident whose current district spans much of the California-Nevada border, left the GOP entirely and is running as an independent for a Sacramento-area seat that Prop. 50 made more conservative. Rather than risk his political future by challenging Rep. Tom McClintock, an influential party fixture, Kiley settled on the 6th Congressional District after months of deliberation.
“This is, I think, probably an attempt to salvage something of a career later down the road by putting in the old college try,” said Mike Madrid, an anti-Trump Republican strategist and co-founder of The Lincoln Project.
Longtime Rep. Darrell Issa, whose San Diego County district went from a Republican stronghold to a toss-up, announced his retirement barely before the deadline to file for the ballot. He reportedly explored moving to Texas to seek reelection there, but abandoned that plan when he failed to earn Trump’s approval.
And rather than retire as the longest-serving congressional Republican in California history, incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert is seeking to topple his colleague, Rep. Young Kim, in pursuit of an 18th term after his Inland Empire district was drastically reshaped into a liberal stronghold. Each has raised millions of dollars that they will undoubtedly deploy as they fight for one of the only remaining solidly Republican seats in California.
One bright spot for Republicans could be Rep. David Valadao’s campaign in the Central Valley. The six-term congressman has worked to distance himself from Trump over the years, voting in favor of the president’s second impeachment after the Jan. 6 insurrection attacks. He has only lost reelection once, in 2018 as part of an anti-Trump blue wave. He won back his seat in 2020 in the same election that former President Joe Biden won his district by double digits.
But Valadao faces one of his most difficult reelections yet as Democrats seek to saddle him with his vote for the GOP’s mega budget bill, which has stripped hundreds of thousands of his own constituents of their health insurance through Medi-Cal.
If California Republicans want to notch wins in races like Valadao’s, they know they need to motivate their voters to show up in November for what’s expected to be a bruising election for GOP candidates up and down the ticket.
The weekend’s gathering in San Diego should provide a good pulse check. Trump’s endorsement in the gubernatorial race could energize the base. Or, it might convince enough GOP voters that the result is a foregone conclusion.
This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.
