Monday, May 14, 2012
Three weeks from the San Diego Mayoral Primary, City Councilman and candidate Carl DeMaio appears to have locked-up one of two runoff spots, according to an exclusive, scientific 10News poll.
If an election were held for Mayor of San Diego today, with early voting already begun, Carl DeMaio is well positioned to advance to a November runoff, with a fierce fight for the second runoff position, according to the 10News poll.
On Monday, DeMaio gets 31 percent of the support. State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher and Congressman Bob Filner tie for the second runoff spot, each with 21 percent. Bonnie Dumanis is further back.
Compared to an identical scientific 10News poll one month ago, DeMaio is up three points, Fletcher is down five points, Filner is up one. Interactive tracking graphs show the poll-on-poll changes among each demographic subgroup, and show Fletcher's rise and fall.
Early voting began on May 7. Among the 12 percent of voters who said they have already voted, DeMaio has 37 percent of the votes; Filner has 20 percent; Fletcher and Dumanis each have 16 percent. Among the 88 percent who said they have not yet voted but are certain to do so on or before June 5, the contest is closer.
Filner's support is older, Democrat, and lower income; older voters are the most reliable. Fletcher's support is male, middle-aged and moderate. DeMaio's support is Hispanic, Republican, conservative and Tea Party.
Voter turnout will determine whether Filner or Fletcher advance to an almost-certain runoff.
Here are the results:
--Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%
--If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Or some other candidate?
--31% Carl DeMaio
--13% Bonnie Dumanis
--21% Bob Filner
--21% Nathan Fletcher
-- 6% Other
This scientific poll was conducted exclusively for 10News by SurveyUSA.