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New Mayoral Poll Shows DeMaio First, Filner And Fletcher Tied For Second

Three weeks from the San Diego Mayoral Primary, City Councilman and candidate Carl DeMaio appears to have locked-up one of two runoff spots, according to an exclusive, scientific 10News poll.

If an election were held for Mayor of San Diego today, with early voting already begun, Carl DeMaio is well positioned to advance to a November runoff, with a fierce fight for the second runoff position, according to the 10News poll.

On Monday, DeMaio gets 31 percent of the support. State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher and Congressman Bob Filner tie for the second runoff spot, each with 21 percent. Bonnie Dumanis is further back.

Compared to an identical scientific 10News poll one month ago, DeMaio is up three points, Fletcher is down five points, Filner is up one. Interactive tracking graphs show the poll-on-poll changes among each demographic subgroup, and show Fletcher's rise and fall.

Early voting began on May 7. Among the 12 percent of voters who said they have already voted, DeMaio has 37 percent of the votes; Filner has 20 percent; Fletcher and Dumanis each have 16 percent. Among the 88 percent who said they have not yet voted but are certain to do so on or before June 5, the contest is closer.

Filner's support is older, Democrat, and lower income; older voters are the most reliable. Fletcher's support is male, middle-aged and moderate. DeMaio's support is Hispanic, Republican, conservative and Tea Party.

Voter turnout will determine whether Filner or Fletcher advance to an almost-certain runoff.

Here are the results:

--Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

--If the primary election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Carl DeMaio? Bonnie Dumanis? Bob Filner? Nathan Fletcher? Or some other candidate?

--31% Carl DeMaio

--13% Bonnie Dumanis

--21% Bob Filner

--21% Nathan Fletcher

-- 6% Other

--8% Undecided

This scientific poll was conducted exclusively for 10News by SurveyUSA.

Comments

Avatar for user 'laplayaheritage'

laplayaheritage | May 14, 2012 at 1:05 p.m. ― 2 years, 7 months ago

DeMaio, Dumanis, and Fletcher approve of the private Hotel Tax for the Convention Center Expansion without the California Constitutional requirement for a public vote with 2/3 approval.

http://www.tinyurl.com/20120507a

Please see the Link above to video of the San Diego City Council Hearing of May 7, 2012, Item 150 Convention Center Facilities District (CCFD), Special Tax, and Validation Lawsuit.

Please see Video Start Time of 33 Minutes to 37 Minutes for Congressman Bob Filner's testimony.

http://sdrostra.com/?p=27942

After a Rough Week, What Does Team Fletcher Have in Store?

http://sdrostra.com/?p=27872

How do you know?

( | suggest removal )

Avatar for user 'Peking_Duck_SD'

Peking_Duck_SD | May 14, 2012 at 2:36 p.m. ― 2 years, 7 months ago

Dirty Carl is the absolute wort of the bunch.

I can't stress this enough.

Yes, I am supporting Filner, but what scares me most is if Dirty Carl actually get elected.

This guy is bad news.

He has spent his entire adult life suckling off the tax payer and the masquerading around as some sort of "tax payer watchdog."

DeMaio's "private sector" business was not private sector.

It was Dirty Carl making friends with powerful Republicans like Newt Gingrich, then going into "business" by having his political allies funnel him **government contracts**.

Now Filthy DeMaio thinks voters are stupid enough to buy his lies.

He is running television adds claiming he will fight special interests and fight the "downtown establishment".

Pretty rich considering many of San Diego's establishment ghouls have endorsed Kooky Carl.

Of course he is in the lead, he has Old Man Manchester pimping for him on the front page of the *Pravda UT* and local television station *KUSI: News for the Small Minded* with their noses so far up Filthy Carl's backside they can see out of his eyes.

I wish there was a way to knock this buffoon out of the primary so we dob't have to watch his creepy commercials all the way until November.

( | suggest removal )