Professional Gamblers Place Bets on Trump-Clinton Contest
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Aired 7/20/16 on KPBS Midday Edition.
Professional Gamblers Take Bets on Trump-Clinton Contest
Paul Krishnamurty, founder, The Political Gambler
Now that Donald Trump is officially the Republican nominee, what are his chances of winning? Well, you could look at the polls, you could ask your friends, or you could check where the money's going.
Gamblers around the world are placing bets worth millions of dollars on the U.S. presidential race, betting on everything from who will win in November to what phrases Sen. Ted Cruz will use in his convention speech. British gambling site Betfair saw about $200 million in bets on the 2012 presidential race, according to Paul Krishnamurty, founder of the blog The Political Gambler.
The political betting markets say Trump has about a 30 percent chance to win in November.
Political gambling is illegal in the U.S., though there is an exception for some academia-backed websites that are functionally equivalent to betting.
Krishnamurty has won thousands of dollars consistently betting on President Obama, even when he faced 10 to 1 odds in 2008. He also won a bet predicting Sen. John McCain to be the Republican nominee in 2008 at 20 to 1 odds. But he put his money on Cruz this election, betting on the wrong outsider candidate to clinch the nomination.
"My whole game is to play as if it's the stock market," Krishnamurty said. "I didn't call Trump until it was way too late. But because I went against Jeb Bush so heavily, I was able to make a profit. But I never covered on Obama. I was very confident on that."
Krishnamurty joins KPBS Midday Edition on Wednesday with more on his 2016 bets and whether anything at the Republican convention so far has improved Trump's odds of victory.
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