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Border & Immigration

San Diego’s cross-border economy faces uncertainty after Trump declines to renew USMCA trade deal

President Donald Trump signs the USMCA free trade agreement in 2018.
White House
President Donald Trump signs the USMCA free trade agreement in 2018.

President Donald Trump signed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2018 and later called it “the best and most important trade deal ever made."

Last week, he pulled out of the agreement, citing concerns about trade deficits.

The decision has brought uncertainty to San Diego’s cross-border economy, according to Chris Cate, CEO of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.

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He told KPBS that pulling out of the agreement, known as the USMCA, could have a massive impact on everything from cars and electronics to medical devices and children’s toys.

“We export nearly $35 billion worth of goods to Mexico annually, and that supports 95,000 jobs in our region,” he said.

The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, established a clear set of trade rules between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. By not extending the deal, the Trump administration introduced annual trade reviews — meaning the price of certain exports and imports could change in a given year.

These annual reviews introduce regulatory uncertainty to the region and complicate long-term planning for businesses, Cate said.

“There are many businesses who are going to be reluctant to invest heavily in jobs and the economy,” he said.

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The primary fear, Cate added, is that San Diego could take an economic hit if those businesses choose to invest their money elsewhere.

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