Speaker 1: (00:00)
As the country continues to battle the overwhelming surge of cases. The Biden administration is taking steps to further increase the availability of free test kits and N 95 masks to help mitigate the spread. According to the CDC, the highly contagious variant accounted for 99.5% of all new COVID cases last week. And they predict over 61,000 virus related deaths will occur in the next four weeks after two years, since the first cases of COVID 19 were first confirmed in the United States, experts are saying that the trajectory of the global pandemic might soon move into an pandemic phase here to discuss this. And some of our most pressing COVID 19 questions is Dr. Eric Topel director of the script's research translational Institute in LA Jolla. Dr. Toil, welcome back to the program.
Speaker 2: (00:49)
Thanks for you to be with you again,
Speaker 1: (00:51)
Dr. Topel we're entering year three of this global pandemic. What are your thoughts on a growing consensus that we might be entering into an pandemic phase? And what exactly does that mean? Right.
Speaker 2: (01:02)
Well, that's the hope, uh, the hope is that we're gonna see containment of the virus where we'll have outbreaks, but there'll be a Mo size and occasional, not what we've been going through now with a million infections a day. I mean, we towards, uh, end of may and June, we were getting down there to what that level of containment look like, where it was quiet. There was some circulating virus, but it was of, you know, modest levels. That would be where we wanna be. That's probably the best we can hope for, for the foreseeable future, but it isn't certain at all. We're so far away from that now. And even though we started to descend in certain places, uh, in the country, there's many other parts of the country that have yet to fully declare. And there's a long way down in this dissent as we're seeing places like Puerto Rico and, and others. So that's the hope, but, uh, whether we're gonna get there in the weeks ahead is not entirely clear. And one, one other point, whether we'll stay there, whether, because of our lack of containment around the world, there could be a, yet another variant that could come along, that would be very challenging, that would upset the whole containment theme. So we'll have to see over time. Right.
Speaker 1: (02:13)
And that's my follow up question for you. What role will global vaccine equity play in reaching a more contained stage of the pandemic?
Speaker 2: (02:21)
Yeah, that's really important distress because we just saw a report today at nature that the death toll for the pandemic is at least three to five times what's been reported. And especially in the countries throughout the world that are in a low and middle income group that are woefully under vaccinated still. And so that's where the containment issue is vital because if we don't contain in the virus throughout the world, that's where we have the potential to see these variants emerge through evolution of the virus that goes through so many, uh, people, particularly if they're immunocompromised people. So that is a big concern that we hopefully this year are gonna achieve. You know, we've had almost 10 billion doses of vaccines out there, but they're not at all evenly distributed. That's what we need is to get 20 billion doses out there and hopefully cover, uh, the species as well as we can
Speaker 1: (03:15)
Right now in the midst of only chronic, how do you think great, your availability of free test kits and N 95 masks will help slow the spread or kind of change the way we're dealing with this current surge?
Speaker 2: (03:27)
Well, it's better than nothing. The fact you can order at least four test kits through the mail and you can pick up in the days ahead, N 95 masks for free at local pharmacies. These are well additions, wish they had been instituted months ago, if not, you know, a year ago, however, uh, we still have a lot of, uh, this virus to face perhaps even, uh, a different version in the future. So it's still, it's, it's late, but it's still welcome. And it shows responsiveness of the government to the pleas for how having these free tests. We need a lot more of them out, out there, as well as the high quality mass that we should be using
Speaker 1: (04:06)
Early on with the spread of Omicron experts noted that the variant was less likely to lead to hospitalizations. Are we still seeing that or is that beginning to surge as more people get it? Now, this is
Speaker 2: (04:16)
A really important misperception to clear up. So a lot of people, well, because a crime breakthrough infections, people who've been vaccinated two or even three shots are getting Aron infections. Yes, that's true. The protection against infection for vaccines with Aron is not high at all. However, the protection against hospitalizations is about 90 and after three months, it drops down to around 80%. That's fantastic. And that's the reason why the booster is so essential. The two shots only are about 50% protection from hospitalization, but the three shots, the booster changes that and almost doubles it. And it actually gets it to protection. That's like the original virus two years ago, whereby the initial vaccines a year ago had 90, 95% protection from hospitalization. So this is really, uh, important to emphasize.
Speaker 1: (05:11)
We continue to see a lot of confusion surrounding best practices for self quarantine. If one has been exposed or, you know, test positive for a test, what would you advise? Yeah,
Speaker 2: (05:21)
This has been very disappointing with CDC because they are not following best practices from other countries the way it works in places that have been relying on rapid tests, uh, throughout the past, uh, year or more in the pandemic. We are so far behind that. But for example, in the United Kingdom, you have to have two negative tests. Most people will not be negative by day five. In fact, about a third will not be negative at day five, but starting at day six and day seven, if there's two negative tests, then sure you can leave isolation. But the, the idea that the CDC recommended that after five days, you just go out and wear a mask without testing, that was ludicrous because it does it, it completely defies what has been established best practices around the world.
Speaker 1: (06:10)
I'm glad you brought up the UK and England because many countries are starting to relax. Preventative measures. England may no longer require mask in the future because scientists there are saying only Kron has already peaked. What are your thoughts on this approach?
Speaker 2: (06:23)
Well, there was a report from England from the office of national security, so called ons today that showed that the benefit of wearing face masks was substantial for preventing infection. So I don't know how to J that. Um, I still think that mask particularly K N 95, K N 90 fours and 95. These high quality mask, indoor gatherings are useful for the time being. We have to get through this Amron wave and see if we get to a level of containment. If we get there, then it's a chance to relax, uh, the mask, but we're not anywhere close to that point. Yet.
Speaker 1: (06:59)
Speaking of global research, a recent study from Israel indicates that while a fourth dose of the vaccine will increase antibody levels, it will most likely do little in preventing Omnicon breakthrough infections. What does this data mean for the surge we're currently in?
Speaker 2: (07:13)
Well, this is again where that mix up is because we don't have any data yet from is zero for the fourth, uh, shot. That is the second booster for preventing severe disease, hospitalizations, and deaths. So to jump to any conclusion that the four shot won't be helpful. It's premature. Again, Omicron is so different from the original virus with over 50 different mutations that we just don't recognize it, it has immune escape. That's why we're seeing all these infections with , but what's different is the booster works through our memory cells, the B and T-cells. And so what we don't know right now is how long does that booster that we took work? Does it last for four months, six months, or does it start to wan? And that's what the Israel will get us soon because we have to see the data for protection for hospitalizations. And whether that for shot makes a big difference.
Speaker 1: (08:07)
We said earlier that the CDC anticipates over 61,000 more virus related deaths in the coming weeks. Is it possible to say when we might see the peak of this surge?
Speaker 2: (08:18)
Well, we're averaging 2000 thousand deaths a day right now. So that calculation of 60,000 in the next month has certainly got some basis. The problem is almost every one of those deaths are in people who are UN vaccinating, and then there's a, a smaller, less than 10% or so that were wan because they didn't get a booster. It preventable. And that's, what's so pathetic and sad that we have not gotten our vaccination rates and our booster rates as high as they can go. And we're so far away, you know, we're at 62% for vaccination, just a slightly better than that in California. And our booster rate is terrible from compared to countries that are at least twice as many people who are eligible are boosted than us. Plus we wait five months, which is only a recent change and it should be four months or even less. The UK is at three months to have a booster. So we're just not pulling out all the stops to prove these deaths and hospitalizations.
Speaker 1: (09:17)
I've been speaking with Dr. Eric topple, director of the Scripps research translational Institute, Dr. Topple, thank you so much for joining us today.
Speaker 2: (09:25)
Thanks for having me.
