BERLIN — President Biden’s trip to Germany was supposed to be a grand affair complete with military parades in Berlin and a high-level Ukraine summit at the U.S. Ramstein Air Base. That was last week before the White House canceled because of Hurricane Milton.
In a quick feat of rescheduling, Biden now plans to head to Berlin Thursday. And while this trip is more about brass tacks than brass bands, pomp and circumstance, it’s still expected to be a meeting of great political importance — especially for Berlin and Europe. Here’s why:
Messaging Moscow
While the military pageantry planned for Biden’s initial visit was undoubtedly meant as a gesture of gratitude for the outgoing president, the spectacle was also intended for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pulling out all the ceremonial stops is something the Germans have not done for a U.S. president since Ronald Reagan’s visit to divided Berlin in 1987. The audience — then as now — was Moscow when Reagan implored “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!"
Daniela Schwarzer, foreign policy expert with the Bertelsmann Foundation, says that even without the added ceremony, Biden’s meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin this week is “a signal to Moscow about the resolve of the political West” and its unwavering support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
During the visit, Biden and Scholz plan to have a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to talk about Ukraine and the Middle East, a senior U.S. official told reporters on a conference call, previewing the trip.
Schwarzer says the president’s day trip to Berlin is also about domestic politics in the United States ahead of the presidential election: “Biden will be sending a message home to Congress about how imperative American support is for Ukraine.”
Schwarzer adds that — as far as the White House is concerned — this trip is also about European politics: “Behind closed doors in talks with Olaf Scholz, Joe Biden is also likely to relay the message that Europe must prepare to take on even more responsibility in supporting Ukraine.”
To Kyiv’s disappointment, the last-minute rescheduling of Biden’s trip culminated in the cancellation of the Ramstein meeting at which some 20 leaders were expected to pledge more weapons for Ukraine as it enters its third winter at war. Biden has instead assured Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of his efforts to boost support for Ukraine during the remainder of his term in office, promising a $425 million security assistance package that includes additional air defense capability, air-to-ground munitions and armored vehicles.
Timing is key
Just under three weeks before the U.S. election, this is a farewell trip as Biden prepares to leave office. Norbert Röttgen, a long-term member of the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee, told NPR that “President Biden embodies the end of an era” as the relative peace following the end of the Cold War draws to a close and a hot war rages again in Europe.
Röttgen says Berlin is reluctant to let go of a president who, for more than half a century, “devoted his political life to the trans-Atlantic relationship and worked constructively on multilateralism with NATO and Europe.” Röttgen says Berlin is also reluctant to face up to the threats that define this new era: “The question of war or peace has come back to Europe,” Röttgen asserts. “We are experiencing the end of the longest peace period in European history.”
Biden’s trip follows a warning earlier this week from German intelligence chiefs who believe Russia will be in a position to launch an attack on NATO by 2030. Röttgen — a member of the conservative Christian Democratic Union opposition party — says this assessment warrants a stronger response from Scholz’s government worthy of the military Zeitenwende (or “turning point”) declared by the chancellor days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, signaling a jump in German military spending and a readiness to take a more active role in international affairs.
Scholz under pressure
The speed at which Washington rescheduled the trip was met with surprise in Berlin. Political analyst Schwarzer argues that while Scholz should feel lucky the White House rescheduled at all so close to the U.S. election, the German chancellor is in a tricky position. “Scholz has coordinated all weapons deliveries to Kyiv with Biden,” Schwarzer says. “As Biden exits the global political stage and U.S. support becomes less certain, Scholz is not only potentially left alone with such decisions but faces increasing calls from within Germany to negotiate with Putin.”
Demands to stop delivering weapons to Ukraine and negotiate with Putin are coming from the hard-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) and the new economically far-left, socially far-right Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), two Russia-friendly parties whose recent regional electoral successes present a challenge for Scholz ahead of next year’s parliamentary election. While Scholz maintains that any peace agreement must be on Ukraine’s terms, he knows his Social Democratic Party (SPD) is currently polling behind the AfD.
Scholz is also under pressure at home after agreeing with Biden to station U.S. medium-range missiles on German soil starting in 2026 — a decision that is proving contentious, even within his own party. Amid fears about escalating Russia’s war in Ukraine beyond its borders, current polls show that the public is split on the issue with 45% of Germans against and 40% in favor of hosting U.S. warheads. The issue is likely to feature in next year’s election in Germany.
Scholz is not only criticized for apparently doing too much to help Ukraine, but also for doing too little. When Zelenskyy came to Berlin last week, Scholz pledged about $1.5 billion in fresh military aid for Kyiv, together with Norway, Denmark and Belgium, and a further $185 million to help repair Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. While he pointed out that Germany remains Ukraine’s second-biggest financial backer after the U.S., opposition lawmakers and some within his own coalition insist the chancellor could do more. Scholz refuses to send German-made Taurus long-range missiles, coveted by Kyiv, for fear of escalation. Röttgen, the CDU opposition member, advocates for sending Kyiv the missiles, warning that Putin won’t stop at Ukraine.
In addition to this domestic balancing act, Scholz faces having to make decisions about Ukraine without steady guidance from the Biden administration.
Berlin’s anxious about the U.S. election
And there’s the rub. Biden’s visit marks a potential turning point in trans-Atlantic relations. Political analyst Schwarzer says that “even if Kamala Harris wins the election, Europe knows it cannot expect the same level of attention from Washington.”
Schwarzer adds that anxiety among the majority of lawmakers in Berlin is at an all-time high about Donald Trump’s potential return to the Oval Office.
“Everyone is asking whether Trump will pull out of NATO or not, but he doesn’t even need to do that to put Europe under pressure,” Schwarzer argues. “He can just as easily apply pressure by undermining NATO’s credibility and Europe has to be prepared for this.”
NPR's Eric McDaniel contributed to this report.
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