Early results show Marni von Wilpert leading over Jim Desmond in the race for California's 48th Congressional District.
Why it matters
California’s 48th District was one of five congressional seats targeted by Proposition 50, passed by California voters last fall. That proposition approved redrawing the state’s congressional map to give Democratic candidates an advantage in those five key districts.
In the 48th, Prop. 50 flipped the balance of registered voters. Before Prop. 50, there were more registered Republican voters in the 48th than Democrats; now there are more Democrats than Republicans.
The effort to redraw California’s map followed a similar effort in Texas initiated by the Republican-led state legislature to redraw their map to favor Republicans. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said at the time that Prop.50 was a way to “fight fire with fire” and offset what Republicans were trying to do in Texas.
Despite these efforts to tilt the playing field in their favor, Republicans are now playing defense in several key districts they hoped to win to maintain control of the House of Representatives.
By the numbers
As of 8:56 von Wilpert has a 18.8 percentage point lead over Desmond. Desmond will be hoping to gain ground with Election Day voters, who tend to lean Republican compared to those who returned their ballot early. But President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity is likely to depress turnout from voters Republicans need to win competitive contests. Meanwhile, a PBS poll released last week showed early voters favoring Democrats 68% to 31%.
Republican strategist Melik Abdul told PBS that the House is “very much out of our reach” for the GOP but that he believes Republicans will still keep control of the Senate.
Looking ahead
If von Wilpert holds on and wins, all five of San Diego County’s congressional delegates will be Democrats. Von Wilpert would join Representatives Mike Levin, D-Oceanside; Scott Peters, D-San Diego; Sara Jacobs, D-San Diego; and Juan Vargas, D-Chula Vista, in Washington D.C. That will also mean San Diego’s 5th City Council District will be an open seat that requires a special election to fill. The council is responsible for setting that election date if and when the seat is officially vacated.
With Democrats likely to control the House, the question becomes how successful they will be at stopping President Donald Trump’s agenda. Von Wilpert has pledged to “stand up to Donald Trump,” and “hold (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) ICE accountable” during her campaign. And according to the Los Angeles Times, the Democrats’ ranking House Oversight Committee member Robert Garcia, D-Long Beach, has promised “aggressive” investigations of President Trump, his family and his administration.
President Trump himself told Republicans he would be impeached for a third time if Democrats took control of the House in this year’s midterm elections.
