S1: On today's KPBS Midday Edition. The ballots have been cast and the votes are still being tallied. We'll have a breakdown of where election results stand. I'm Jade Hindman , keeping you informed , inspired and making you think. Last night was a victory for Democrats across the nation. We'll be looking at where California's state and local races stand. We'll also recap how the measures on your ballot did , and what all of the results might mean for the cost of housing , health care and more. That's ahead on Midday Edition. Election day has come and gone , but the counting continues with hundreds of thousands of votes to be counted. While not all the races have been called just yet , we do have a clear picture on a number of races from across the country. Joining me to talk about it is Andrew Bowen , Metro reporter for KPBS. Also Jakarta , KPBS Public Matters reporter , and Bryan Adams. He's a professor of political science at San Diego State University. Welcome to you all.
S2: Hi , Jared. Great to be here. Thanks for having us.
S1: Great to have you all here. How are you all feeling after what I know was a really late night for you.
S3: Well , I'm pretty tired. I had to get up early this morning to go on the radio again. So. Yeah , I'm definitely looking to catch up on some sleep tonight.
S1: Yes , yes. Well , listen , we we know voter turnout tends to be lower for midterm elections , but there were long lines at some of the vote centers. What do we know about turnout and how it compares to past elections?
S3: Well , I think that the figure that we just saw with the Registrar of Voters. They estimate there are 540,000 ballots still to be counted in San Diego County. And if that's if that estimate is correct , then that would be about a 64% turnout , which is bigger than the last midterms and I believe bigger than many of the midterms before that. So I think the indications we're seeing now is that turnout was quite high for an election. You know , that's not a presidential year. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. Well , in Jake , we're hearing a lot about a blue wave , as the Democrats in Congress are now expected to have a majority in the House and Senate. The most competitive congressional race in our region was in the 48th district. Democrat Marni von Wolpert declared victory last night , though that race has not been called officially yet. But what can you tell us about how that race is playing out so far?
S2: Yeah , so City Council member Marni Von Wilbur , she is out to a pretty sizable lead in the early results. It says. According to AP , about 52% of the votes have been counted , and she has almost 60% of that vote. So it would be a pretty hard task for Desmond to overcome that and actually end up winning this seat. So although they haven't called it Marnie Von Willpower , last night she declared victory and she talked about what it meant for , you know , her to win in this environment. And we have a clip of that.
S4: I am so glad that our nation chose love over fear. Yes. When it comes to these horrific Ice raids , we're going to stop ice from tearing our feet apart.
S2: And yeah , you can hear the energy in that room last night. That was something that was going on all night at her watch party. There was a lot of cheering for the results from across the country as they were coming in , and there was a lot of those that were friendly to Democrats. And Marni and Sarah Jacobs , who joined her up at her watch party after she declared victory. They both really set out talking about what they wanted to do in Congress , assuming Mani does hold on. And one thing that von Wolpert said she wanted to do was restart USAID. She's a former Peace Corps volunteer , and so that's something that was really important to her , she says. USAID is a big , important part of our outreach to the rest of the world. She also said she wanted to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. She said they wanted to restore Roe v Wade and go as far as to pass the Equal Rights Amendment. So some pretty big , ambitious plans for Marty Von Wolper and this new Democratic Congress coming in. Yeah.
S1: Yeah. And now the 48th was one of the districts we redrawn after the passage of prop 50. How big of an impact that that did that have on on the results we saw? Yeah.
S2: Yeah. You know , it definitely had an impact. It absolutely boosted Democrats chances in these races. But based on the numbers that we're looking at , it seems like some of these races could have been won even without prop 50. Changing the math for Democrats. Now , that's not to say that prop 50 wasn't important , and prop 50 probably activated and motivated a lot of voters and then helped sort of build the the groundwork and the structure for keeping those voters engaged and getting them to come out to the polls for this midterm election.
S1: And , Brian.
S5: Yeah , I just add that it looks like all five of the districts that were redistricted for prop 50 to make a majority Democrat , the Democrats are going to win all five of those. It looks like on the other side , a lot of the redistricting Republicans did actually backfired. They actually lost a number of those races in places like Florida and Texas. Interesting.
S1: Interesting. What do you think that that implies?
S5: Well , it's just as Jake was saying. It's just that you're such a blue wave that even in districts that were leaning Republican , a lot of those districts were gerrymandered so that you have like 55% Republican in an ordinary year. But this wasn't an ordinary year. And you had Democrats had such a big wave that were able to overcome those margins. Yeah.
S2: Yeah. And it was something that , you know , I was noting at the time when these era matters were happening statewide and California and across the rest of the country is that you can't get rid of voters if you move them from one district , they have to go to another one. So while you're trying to make one district redder or bluer , you're going to by default make another district the opposite and make it more competitive. And so there's a lot of times it looks like Republican states ended up making all of the races competitive instead of having their safe red seats and their safe blue seats. And that really backfired in this blue wave of an election.
S1: And what do you think? What's the message being sent from voters in all of that?
S2: It's a pretty strong rebuke of what President Trump has been doing for the past two years. I think everyone is is pretty strongly on board with voters. Were responding to what the Trump administration has been doing , the federal immigration raids , the war in Iran. Even JD Vance came out and said the war in Iran was why we lost from his perspective. So it's pretty clear this was a nationalized election and local issues didn't really play in , I think. Brian.
S5: Brian. Yeah , I'd also add that it shows that there's a segment of the population is willing to switch parties , right? There are some people that are going to always vote Democrat , some will always vote Republican , but there's at least a segment in the middle that's willing to switch. And we saw a lot of those in this election.
S1: Swing votes are real. Yes. We're going to hear more about the overall balance of power in Congress later in our show. But I want to turn now to the results in some of San Diego , those San Diego Council races. And let's start with district four in southeast San Diego. The current council member , Henry Foster , the third , is trailing neonatal nurse and community activist Martha Abraham. Historically , incumbents do pretty well in council races , but that's not the case right now. How big of a surprise are these initial results , Andrew?
S3: Well , I think they are. It's always surprising in San Diego when an incumbent is unseated and we haven't seen that yet. They're still counting votes. And Martha Abraham's lead is pretty narrow. But even , you know , even if it's true that incumbents typically get reelected in San Diego , The last time that an incumbent was unseated was in district 4 in 2018 , when Monica Montgomery Stepp unseated the incumbent , Myrtle Cole. And so I think it's maybe a little less surprising that it happened in district four. Of all places , this is a district where , uh , you know , turnout isn't always the highest when you compare it to other city council districts. But among those who do turn out , they are highly engaged and highly motivated. Uh , the other indication that we had that that things were not going great for Henry Foster is the primary election. They were separated by 12 votes , if I recall correctly. And , uh , foster came in first in the primary. But , uh , you know , Martha Abraham was just there behind him. So , uh , you know , I think it's , uh , certainly an indication that , uh , you know , if one of the lessons that we learned from last night was that there was , uh , some anti-incumbency fervor or sentiment , um , you know , that probably played in Martha Abraham's favor. And , you know , it's a district where. And I'll also mention Henry Foster has only been in office for about two and a half years. And so if he was looking to really build a relationship with his constituents , he didn't have the normal four years that an incumbent would have in trying to do that.
S1: And you actually have some a clip from Abraham. Tell me a bit about it. Yeah.
S3: Yeah. So last night I went to her election watch party. It was at an event space in Logan Heights. And , you know , similar to how Jake described Marni Von Gilbert's watch party. I mean , there was a lot of energy in this room. People were really happy and excited at this point. We we knew that we had had the initial first drop of results. And so Martha Abraham was speaking to her supporters. She thanked , you know , her family. She has a young. She has a son. Um , she thanked her , uh , her these interest groups that came in and support her supported her kind of at the last minute. Um , And here's what she had to say about what this vote meant to her.
S6: This was how you reminded us what happens when a community believes in itself , when a community has been overlooked for decades and refuses to be overlooked any longer? Woo!
S1: I mean , Andrew , what would you point to as the defining issue in this race?
S3: Well , you know , it's interesting , Martha. Abraham actually rose to prominence going to city council meetings and speaking out against several large development proposals and city policies that had allowed these large housing projects in district four. When I spoke to her about what she really believes about housing policy , she said she doesn't believe that. You know , she I think she agrees with the general consensus that we need to build more housing. But she feels that district four , because it's so far behind in terms of infrastructure , in terms of , you know , quality of life and the economic resiliency of the people who live there , that there are better places in San Diego to start building and in particular to build these large projects. So she thinks , you know , we need to build in high opportunity neighborhoods , wealthier neighborhoods where , you know , there's more economic opportunity for the people that will occupy those homes. Um , and I'm not really sure how much housing policy really played into the , the race. And it wasn't something that she talked about ad nauseam. It was there were other issues that she spoke about. And I think a big part of it was also just a feeling that Henry Foster had not really , um , built a relationship with his constituents , that he wasn't being responsive to their concerns and that they just needed a change.
S1: And , Brian , you look like you want to say something. You want to add something.
S5: Well , I just add another really interesting dynamic of this race is the firefighters union came out in favor of Abraham. And , you know , that was the firefighters union flexing their muscle and saying , you know , to not just to whoever's representing district four , but everybody else in the city , you know , don't cross us. And that was really it was really a surprise because foster didn't do anything that really , um , went against their interests. Um , there was a , you know , a fire station. They wanted to be built , but that's been on the books for forever. Um , so it's just really interesting dynamic that they chose this race to go against foster. Yeah.
S3: Yeah. And Martha Abraham actually thanked the firefighters union , and she was speaking to supporters last night. And she mentioned we will get you the contract that you deserve. They're currently in negotiations. And Martha Abraham does not have the authority to give them a contract. She's one vote of nine. But she also mentioned the business community. She mentioned the California Apartment Association. These are pretty deep pocketed interest groups that came out in support of her. And I think the thing we have to acknowledge , um , it's sort of an open secret in San Diego that Mayor Todd Gloria was putting his thumb on the scale trying to unseat the incumbent , Henry Foster. The Voice of San Diego reported several weeks ago that they had spoken with insiders that said Henry Foster's downfall was mayor Tom Gloria's number one political priority. And so , you know , these dynamics playing out between the mayor's office and district four really complicated the race. And it gave Martha Abraham , I think , some muscle and some campaign knowhow. And , you know , outside spending certainly that absolutely helped her cross into that majority.
S1: And you mentioned Mayor Gloria. Now there's an effort to have him recalled. Um , that should all be interesting to see how it plays out. Yeah.
S3: Yeah. And I mean , I mean , we can talk about that now. I mean , I think , you know , one of the , uh , backers of that recall petition of Mayor Todd Gloria , that we just learned about , you know , a day or two ago is Genevieve. Joan's right. She's an attorney. And she had been out there really campaigning hard for Henry Foster and and trying to promote him and convince district four voters , you know , stick with him. He's he's got your back. And so it does kind of smell a little bit like revenge. Like if , you know , the mayor is going to , uh , to , you know , interfere in this district's politics and try and unseat this incumbent. Well , we're going to interfere in his politics , too. And , you know , I think it's probably widely acknowledged , mayor Todd Gloria is not the most popular mayor , and this time , in his second term , is not the most popular time for him. Over all of the six or so years that he's been in office as mayor. And so , you know , we'll see where that goes. I mean , a lot of recall petitions circulate and then they don't get the signature thresholds. Um , there are more people who talk about recalling than actually succeed at it. So I think we got to take all of that with a big grain of salt.
S1: Another city council race that's gotten a lot of attention and a lot of money thrown at it is in district two , and that covers areas like Point Loma , Claremont , and Mission Beach. Democrat Nicole Crosby , currently leading independent Richard Bailey in the race to replace outgoing council member Jennifer Campbell. Tell us what's what's the short on that one? Yeah.
S3: Yeah. So this is a pretty classic left versus right race. Nicole Crosby is a Democrat. And while Richard Bailey is reregistered from Republican to Independent in February , he still very much has ideas that are in alignment with Republican or right of center politics. He talks about not , you know , cutting spending , not raising taxes or fees. And those are the real left right political issues at the local government. And so , you know , I spoke with Nicole Crosby last night after the first results dropped. I asked her , how much do you think your opponent's partisan affiliation or , you know , his past membership in the Republican Party has passed votes for Donald Trump actually played out in this race , and she said she didn't think it was the biggest issue and that she felt like her connection to the community was really what helped her. Here's what she said.
S7: Whether it's the PTA or the town council , or the regular seniors that are at the coffee shop or the library , and understanding what people need is really getting back to basics and not pushing them aside. It's about showing up and being the voice for them and making sure that we are. They know that we're in this fight together.
S1: You know , Brian , do you do you think she's she's spot on with that or.
S8: I think I would disagree a little bit. I think it actually.
S5: Did really matter. And I think.
S8: The real.
S5: Takeaway I have from this race is that , you know , here you have Bailey , who's a Republican , dropped the Republican label to run as a , quote , independent. And it didn't work. And we've seen that over and over again. Larry Turner tried it two years ago when he ran for mayor. Kevin Kiley , who House member tried it. He seemed to have lost his race yesterday. You know , Democrats tried it in Nebraska and Montana. I think. That.
S8: That.
S5: Voters are smart enough to see through that. So I think I think we're not likely to see that happen as much in the future.
S3: Yeah , I agree with you , Brian. I think , you know , of course you're going to hear the candidates say , well , I won because I'm connected to the community and , you know , sort of dismiss these partisan things. But really , what we saw in the mailers that were going out and , you know , the negative ads that were attacking Richard Bailey , it was a lot of messaging around Donald Trump , Donald Trump , Donald Trump , Republican , Republican , Republicans. So , you know , while I think Nicole Crosby's connections to the community are real , as she was the past president of the Claremont Town Council , you know , she has been around for a long time and people know her. I do think in a district this big , you got to understand the partisan politics are at play.
S1: I mean , so , listen , I mean , how might the City council change if the current results hold? Yeah.
S3: Yeah. Well , I mean , as far as policy goes , um , the mayor , Todd Gloria , is working on a , uh , a proposal to allow more townhomes in single family neighborhoods. So it'll be interesting to see where the new council falls on that issue. And single family neighborhoods have historically been quite off limits in terms of politics. Like , you don't change the zoning there because they're very motivated and wealthy , you know , or wealthier than average voters who who will vote you out if they don't like your policies. Um , there's also the question of flock cameras or automated license plate readers. Henry Foster was really leading the charge to try and ban that technology , that surveillance technology in San Diego. So if he is unseated , that issue or that effort to ban those cameras , um , might fall by the wayside.
S1: All right. Well , we'll have our panel stick around , and we will continue this conversation on the other side of the of the break. KPBS Midday edition is back in a bit. Welcome back to KPBS Midday Edition. I'm Jade Hindman. As results from election night trickle in , we have a clear picture of some races , but some are too close to call. I'm here with KPBS Metro reporter Andrew Bowen and also Sdsu political science professor Brian Adams , along with Jake Gatta , KPBS public Matters reporter. Um , Brian , there's there's two countywide measures I want to talk about. Both are too close to call right now , but measure A would make a series of changes to the county charter , like increasing term limits for supervisors. The yes campaign is in the lead with 51% of the vote to 48% voting no. What do the early results for measure A signal to you?
S5: Yeah , it is too close at the moment , but I'm a little bit surprised during the campaign that there wasn't a stronger no campaign. I think a lot of the big interest groups have decided not to put money into into that race , which gave it a shot. I think if actually voters had known more about exactly what it would do. Particularly the term limits aspect , that maybe it wouldn't be doing as well.
S1: Andrew , what are your thoughts? Yeah.
S3: Yeah. Well , I think I agree with Brian. I mean , there when I think I remember seeing some polling that said , when voters were told about the term limits change , uh , they were turned off. But the other aspects of the measure , like creating an independent Budget Analyst's Office and some independent auditors offices in the county. Um , you know , those were they were supportive of that. And I remember reading the ballot language on my ballot. And , um , you know , the term limits seems like probably the biggest change in terms of actual policy. And yet it wasn't really like front and center in what you were reading on your ballot. So it could be easy for a voter who might , you know , not be so cool with extending term limits on county supervisors , not realizing that that was the main part of this measure , and voting yes , because they like the other things. Yeah.
S2: Yeah. Okay.
S9: Okay. Yeah. I just I just wanted to.
S2: If I could about measure a the the thing about the term limits issue is that I , I feel like one of the biggest problems was not the concept of extending the term limits , but the fact that the supervisors were doing it for themselves , right , including themselves in that extended term limit. And if they had just said we're extending term limits for the next board or whatever , that might have been a more popular proposal and like for me. I mean , if you want to be a county supervisor for a third term , like go for it , feel free. That doesn't seem like a fun job to me. And so I don't think there's , you know , many county supervisors who are like that third term is my , you know , step up to the next level. Like that just seems like it's something if you really want to do that job , go for it. Brian.
S9: Brian.
S5: Yeah , I'll just add that you measure a make substantive changes , but it's not radical changes. I mean it's like really I mean , you still have term limits. There's three terms instead of two terms. And , you know , adding the Ethics Commission and the independent auditor. Yeah , they matter , but they're probably not going to make any fundamental change to how the county is actually run. Hmm.
S1: Hmm. Well , moving on to measure B , that's the half cent sales tax that would fund things like health care and fixes for the Tijuana River sewage crisis. Early results are showing a thin margin between yes and no votes for that one. What do you make of that , Brian?
S5: Yeah , this would make a major change because this is a lot of money. I mean , a half cent sales tax will generate a significant amount of money that they're planning to use to backfill some of the cuts of the national level , as well as to to deal with the Tijuana sewage crisis and some other issues as well. So I don't know how this is going to play out with the remaining ballots , but I suspect it's going to stay really close.
S1: Andrew , what are your what are your thoughts on that or are they surprising to you? Are these these results so far surprising?
S9: Uh , it doesn't.
S3: Surprise me too much. I mean , the last time we saw a countywide sales tax measure on the ballot , it was 2024 , and it failed very , very thin margin like it was , I think less than 51%. No. Uh , so , you know , there's a really , really tight , um , kind of , uh , division between people in San Diego County who are willing to pay more taxes for more public spending and more public services and those who are not. And so , you know , I think the fact that it's close makes a whole lot of sense to me. One thing I think that's interesting about that measure. Is it? It needed only a simple majority to pass because of a Supreme Court ruling several years ago that allowed citizens initiatives to pass with a special tax. You know , a citizen's initiative that proposes a special tax only needs a simple majority , not a two thirds majority. And there was another measure on the ballot in the state , prop 43 , that would have raised the threshold. So , you know , instead of a simple majority , this measure B would have needed a two thirds majority , even though it's a citizen's initiative. Prop 43 is currently behind in the statewide ballot counting. And so , you know , I think that could indicate from the general public in California that they want local governments to have more flexibility to raise revenue for public services. These are the types of public services that are very often closest to people , people's everyday lives. You know , first responders , infrastructure and certainly health care in this case. And so I think that , um , you know , it's an indication that maybe San Diego County and certainly California is , um , still kind of 50/50 , I guess , on whether or not we should be raising taxes.
S1: Beaches were still closed for more than half the summer because of the Tijuana River sewage crisis. Do you think what was at stake was communicated? Well?
S3: Well , I think there's certainly a lot more public awareness of the Tijuana River sewage crisis now than there was even five years ago. Public officials are talking about it a whole lot more. There's been a lot more reporting. We've gotten a lot more data and studies on the public health impacts of that pollution. And so the fact that it was included in this ballot measure , rather than a ballot measure that was purely intended to make up for the Trump administration's cuts to health care , uh , probably helped it. Okay?
S9: Okay?
S1: You were. You were going to say something. Bryant I saw you go. Okay , well , then in that case , I'm going to move here to the mayoral races because , um , there were a lot of those happening across the county. Last night in Chula Vista , incumbent John McCann won the race with 58% of the vote. Uh , let's take a listen to what he had to say last night.
S10: I'm very appreciative of the citizens of Chula Vista for giving me another four years. We're going to continue to focus on keeping the streets safe , getting homeless off the streets , creating new jobs , and making Chula Vista a place where families can live and thrive.
S1: Is this the outcome we were expecting in Chula Vista?
S9: Brian , earlier.
S5: In the year , Democrats had really eyed this race as when they could flip because , you know , John McCann is a Republican. Chula Vista is a very strong Democratic registration advantage.
S11: They gave up on.
S5: It , I think , in part because of the strength of John McCann as a candidate. I mean , he's generally well liked. He's not had many scandals and so forth , but also to I think , their Tamayo , his opponent ended up not being a particularly strong candidate. So they decided to put their money elsewhere. So it ended up being a bit of a sleeper of a race , even though it had the potential to be a really big one. Jake.
S9: Jake. Yeah , and I was asking.
S2: Cory Suzuki or South Bay reporter about that race , and he said that a big issue , as you mentioned , was just Tamayo not being necessarily a strong candidate. He has some baggage as a trustee and the Chula Vista Elementary School District. And he faced some questions over trying to , you know , oust some fellow Democrats. And then John McCann just has very strong name recognition popularity in Chula Vista. He's got a lot of fundraising. He has a lot of support in that area that just let him , you know , survive. What was such a blue wave of an election? Hmm.
S9: Hmm.
S1: Well , listen , as we mentioned , votes are all still being counted. Updated results are expected from the registrar tomorrow by 6 p.m.. But as we talk today , what's your biggest takeaway from the 2026 midterm elections here in San Diego.
S5: I would say , first , you know , local elections are nationalized almost completely now. I mean , it used to be 20 years ago where a lot of these local races were decided on local issues , and a lot of these weren't. And I think that I think that's going to continue of where you're going to see national trends being reflected locally.
S9: Yeah , I was just going to say the.
S2: State senator from Encinitas , Kathryn Shakespeare , I saw her commercials this cycle , and almost all of them were about Donald Trump. And she's a state senator who goes to Sacramento and legislates in California. They do have , you know , impacts on pushing back against President Trump's policies , things like that. But she's not running for Congress and she's not running for federal office at all. And yet , still , the message from her was when Donald Trump attacks our communities , I fight back. When Donald Trump does this , I push back. And so , as Brian said , everything is just nationalized now down to the local level.
S3: Yeah , I think the question going forward is how long does that last or how long can Democrats in San Diego County just bank on this anti-Trump sentiment among voters to carry them through the election? Trump is going to be out of office in a couple of years. Not that Trumpism will be gone altogether , but I think , you know , we'll have to see some real progress , some real good policymaking from the people in power in order for them to continue. Yeah.
S5: Yeah. And when you have the situation where you have one party dominance on a local level , usually when it's happening , that party splits into factions and we haven't quite seen it yet fully in San Diego. But I suspect that's going to happen. And it may be a progressive versus a moderate faction , or it may be on personal grounds or something else. But I just think that , you know , given the dominance of Democrats have , you're likely to see a lot more infighting.
S2: We are starting to see a little bit of that with the district four race , and just with Democrat on Democrat and the infighting. Within.
S9: Within.
S2: The city at that level. So it's definitely already happening. Absolutely.
S5: Absolutely.
S1: All right. This has been a great conversation. I've been speaking with Bryan Adams , professor of political science at San Diego State University. Also Andrew Bowen , metro reporter for KPBS , and Jake Gatta , KPBS Public Matters reporter. And you can join Jake for an election results live stream today at 130. They'll be on KPBS , Facebook , Instagram and on YouTube channel. So thank you all so much for joining me.
S3: Thank you. Jayden.
S2: Jayden. Thank you. Thanks for having us.
S1: Stick with KPBS Midday Edition to hear more about state election results when we return. Welcome back. You're listening to KPBS Midday Edition. I'm Jade Hindman. On today's show , we are updating you on the latest election results. And now we turn to some of the biggest statewide races and measures , and zoom out for a look at the national picture. I'm here with Marisa Lagos. She's a correspondent for California Politics and Government Desk and a co-host of the podcast Political Breakdown. Marisa , welcome to the show.
S12: Thanks for having me.
S1: So glad to have you here. I hope you are are well and rested after , uh , after the the results rolled in. Um , listen , Democrat Javier Becerra will be California's next governor. He's also the first Latino governor to lead the state. What are your takeaways from Becerra win and the campaign he led?
S12: Well , I mean , really , the excitement here , as you know , was in the primary after that flameout of Eric Swalwell , the former congressman accused of sexual assault at the time. You know , Becerra was in single digits really lagging in this campaign. And he just surged. And it's been fascinating to see his approach after the primary as he , you know , faced off against a the Republican Steve Hilton. Obviously , Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1 in the state , and I wouldn't call it a super intense campaign. I mean , in some ways , I think we heard more from him around opposing prop 39 , the voter ID measure , than in doing a lot of like , media appearances or big rallies. But certainly , you know , he is saying that he wants to lower prices , that he wants to tackle some of the state's big issues , including utility prices , home insurance rates , AI regulation , housing. We'll have to see. You know , you don't get to choose what comes before you as governor all the time. And you know it. A lot of these intentions could be harder to actually deliver on , as we've seen , you know , in the last eight years of Newsom. But he will be buoyed by what's looking like an unprecedented number of Democratic lawmakers. Their supermajority could be even bigger thanks to this Democratic wave. So we'll see how he handles that and sort of dealing with his own party in Sacramento. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. But he's still he's been criticized for being vague on his policy promises and for receiving millions in financial backing from powerful corporations. How might those issues or criticisms impact his leadership? I mean , what are Californians concerns? Yeah.
S12: Yeah. I mean , I think it's fascinating because I hear what you're saying. And also , I think that there's a concern that he's too close to labor. You know , so both of those things can't be true. I think we're going to really see how , you know , somebody with his background , as you said , um , first Latino ever elected governor. We had a lieutenant governor become governor over 100 and something years ago. But , um , that is huge. But he also comes from , you know , he was in Congress for a quarter century. Um , he is very close to a lot of the labor unions. And I know , um , has has spent time going around and talking to them and talking about his desire that they come to him with priorities sort of agreed upon instead of fighting amongst themselves. I mean , one thing I'll be watching is on taxes. The state is about to lose some $30 billion a year in Medicaid funds. He opposed prop 40. The billionaire tax. That bill is going to come due next year. And so is he going to support an increase on taxes on corporations. As he told me last week , he was open to , is he going to look at the broader tax code , or can he find efficiencies in the health care system , as he also told me? I mean , these are all very vague sort of promises , but he said pretty unequivocally that he does not want to see those cuts go through. So how does he make that up? Right.
S1: Right. Um , polls show that about six out of ten Californians feel like the state and country and the economy are going in the wrong direction. What are some of the biggest challenges facing Becerra in the next four years?
S12: I mean , as I said , you know , we're in this moment of rising utility rates and home insurers either leaving the market or jacking up prices. That was something that the current governor tried to tackle at the end of this legislative session , and a deal fell apart. So I'll be watching to see how Becerra , who has made very sort of specific promises about lowering all those rates. How does he do that? Right. And because this really does hit sort of ratepayers of utilities , which is all of us against home insurance buyers , which is a lot of us. Um , what is the balance there? Um , on AI. Last week I asked him about regulation. He's really focused on , you know , the workplace impacts and a lot of his remarks. I asked him , what about just oversight and regulation? And , you know , he he indicated an openness to something like a kill switch. Uh , said he would be open to looking at whether individual executives should be charged with crimes if these agents go rogue and perpetrate the kind of hacks we saw this summer. Um , those are going to be very controversial proposals. If he actually brings them , you know , into legislative or executive form. So we'll be watching that. And then , you know , the problems that have dogged all of the governors in recent memory homelessness , housing , how to sort of balance the clean energy transition with the oil industry and rising prices. Um , you know , I think he'll be slightly helped by having more Democrats in DC in power. But we still have a President Trump who's been very hostile to most of these California priorities. Mhm.
S1: Mhm. Earlier in the show , we talked about the results of the 48th Congressional District , where Democrat Marni von Wolpert is leading over Republican Jim Desmond. Nationally , Democrats have swept up power and even the most surprising of races. What do you see as the factors driving this blue wave or blue tsunami?
S12: Yeah , I mean , it's hard to say whether. I mean , I think so much of it does lie at the president's feet and how he has chosen to govern and what he's chosen to focus on. I also think , you know , in Canada , it's like Marnie , Marnie von Wilbur. Democrats chose folks who did reflect their district and understood who they were campaigning to. Um , you know , it is an open question at this point whether the redistricting ballot measure that Gavin Newsom pushed and voters accepted last year was even necessary. I mean , the margins are just so big for Democrats. It's arguable that they did not need prop 50 , but certainly someone like Marnie Von Wilbur , who's obviously , you know , poised to take over Darrell Issa seat in the Central Valley , a progressive like Randy Villegas beating David Valadao , a Republican who Democrats just went out time and time again and largely were unsuccessful in unseating. I think that just speaks to people's anger at the current status quo. And I think it , you know , raises questions about whether Democrats can deliver on the promises they've been making around things like gas prices. Can they come to some deal with Trump? Can they pass a law to try to stop what's happening in Iran. Um , we'll have to see. It's it's definitely going to be a challenge for folks like Vonn Wolpert if she and Dedes get seated.
S1: Do you see what's happening nationally reflected in California?
S12: You know , I do , but I think we always like to be a little bit of ourselves. So I think the rejection or the seeming rejection , it hasn't been called yet. But if the billionaire attacks really runs counter to a lot of the currents we saw nationally. Um , but I think that that does speak to a few things. One is that candidate races are just different than , uh , ballot measure races. You know , when voters have doubts , they vote no. There was an unprecedented amount of spending to try to kill this $388 million we're counting today by billionaires. And then you had folks like Becerra and Newsom also raising questions in opposing prop 40. So I wouldn't say that that , you know , is a rebuke to the progressive cause in California. I think in general , we did see a lot of more progressive ballot measures passed , and a lot of progressives seem like they're going to get elected to the state legislature and even Congress. But I think it speaks to the challenge of tax policy and just the way that these coalitions can really scramble kind of common sense or common wisdom around politics , especially when it comes to policy questions like ballot measures being put directly before voters , you know , not just a candidate who's sort of we've just seen in recent years , um , especially House races are so nationalized. And so if you have , you know , a decent candidate , you can win those if there's a wave in either direction.
S1: Given that that's the case , do you think that that some of the state issues really fall along the wayside or maybe don't get addressed as they could , because these races have become so nationalized?
S12: I mean , I think the bigger challenge for Democrats is just going to be who's in the white House. I actually think there's a lot of agreement on the sort of broad brush strokes of the policies that folks , whether they're in , you know , North County , San Diego or Riverside and that Congressional district 48 or down in Texas where we saw the gerrymander attempts by Republicans really backfire. I mean , we're hearing from pollsters , from voters , from focus groups. Everyone's worried about a lot of the same things. So can Democrats actually tackle those things? I think is the question. I think some of the intraparty fights will more be around bigger things that are not going to get done in two years , Medicare for all. I mean , there's just no way that Democrats could do that. And quickly , even if they had , I think somebody , you know , a little bit more friendly to something like that in the white House. Um , but we've seen , you know , like I said , Becerra , down to these congressional candidates , make promises about trying to protect people's health care. Those cuts are coming in January and February. So how can they actually make that happen?
S1: It'll be interesting to see what the strategy will be to address some of these issues on a national level and state level as well. I want to go to some of the statewide measures , starting with prop 39. That's the GOP backed voter ID proposal. What does this say about voters feelings towards Trump's efforts to get involved in elections?
S12: Well , I think that you hit the nail on the head. I think that if this had been a different year and the and the what was a relatively clean voter ID measure that Republicans backing , it might have had a better chance. But the minute it got yoked to Trump , the minute it got sort of associated with his broader 2020 denialism , all the efforts we saw in courts and elsewhere to try to really push California to share voter rolls , to throw people off the rolls , to essentially interfere with a state run election , which is what the Constitution promises. Voters in this overwhelmingly blue state just did not want anything to do with it. And , you know , I think that that's a big win for Democrats , in the sense that Republicans saw prop 39 as a potential model if they could get it passed here. That was not the case. And it's just interesting to see , because in the spring , when it was sort of more of a theoretical ballot measure , it was pulling pretty close at 50/50. And those numbers just went lopsided to the no side once Trump was really tied to it in voters minds.
S1: What other ballot measures are you are standing out to you right now? I mean , what results are you still looking at?
S12: Yeah , I mean , it's fascinating , right , that we see something like prop three , which is the extension of the millionaire tax back. You know , something Jerry Brown championed that easily passed. So that does show you you know , I think prop 40 was was a unique sort of ballot measure. Prop 45 , the secret reform measure pushed by the Cal Chamber of Commerce , does appear to be losing. That's really fascinating because , you know , I think they really wanted to tie this to that abundance movement , the sense that zoning laws and Ceqa have really tied up housing development. I think opponents of that measure were really able to tie it to some other unpopular things , like the potential for speeding up data center construction. Uh , just the the tax we've seen on California's environmental policies by Trump. I think this is another example of really the national politics bleeding into a state race. And , you know , also just the idea that we've seen a lot of secret reforms happen in the legislature in years past. I think it was a a harder case to make to voters than it might have been 3 or 4 years ago , even , because we have seen so much movement on that. And there was just a lot of noise around what this could possibly speed up , whether it would be the types of projects voters don't want to see in their neighborhoods. Hmm.
S9: Hmm.
S1: Well , in the last minute and a half we have here. What lessons do you think can be taken away from these election results for both parties? Yeah.
S12: Yeah. I mean , I think again , that , you know , the national politics really do loom large over most races and candidates matter. And I think we're seeing this in places like Texas where , you know , while Democrats swept , you see an under vote for someone like Ken Paxton , who's largely considered a really weak candidate. Um , I think in California , the question is going to be like , what? What do voters want? Was this just a rebuke of Trump , or are they really embracing some of these candidates? I mean , looking at the Central Valley , you have Adam Gray , one of the leaders of the Blue Dog , moderate Democrats , uh , just sweeping to victory in a way that was inconceivable a few years ago when he won by only 187 votes. Just one district over. You have Randy Villegas , a Bernie Sanders progressive , beating David Valadao. Those are very two different theories of the Democratic case in a place like the Central Valley. And it's just wild that they both won by such big margins. Um , now , how do they govern and can they keep that up into in another two years when they'll be back on the ballot , just given how the political winds blow so quickly and how difficult it is to get anything done in D.C. , let alone with , again , President Trump in the white House.
S1: That's the big question. I've been speaking with Marissa Lagos. She's a correspondent for KQED , California Politics and Government Desk and a co-host of the podcast Political Breakdown. Marisa , thank you so much for your time.
S12: Thank you.
S1: That's our show for today. I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.
