Measure A, the lone ballot measure in the city of San Diego's June 2 primary election, faces an uphill battle after initial results show it failing by more than 16 percentage points.
Stephen Russell is president and CEO of the San Diego Housing Federation, which endorsed Measure A. He said he was hopeful the results could change as more ballots are counted, and that the campaign had built alliances that will last beyond this election.
"The 'No on A' campaign outspent us 1.3 million to 300,000," Russell said. "And so it speaks to the fact that really wealthy interests can still kind of control the public dialogue."
Mark Kersey is president and CEO of the San Diego County Taxpayers Association. He told KPBS that the tax would do little to address San Diego's housing affordability crisis.
"If they really wanted to, they could have said 'Okay, the money raised by this is going to go into a housing fund that's going to actually pay for affordable housing or subsidized housing,'" Kersey said. "And they didn't. They just put it right in the city's general fund, where it could be used for employee salaries or pensions or basically anything the city pays for."
Measure A would impose a new tax on homes that are vacant for most of the year and are not claimed as someone's primary residence.
The measure includes a number of carveouts for cases like natural disasters, military service and family deaths. The tax would start at $8,000 in 2027 and rise to $10,000 in 2028.
Why it matters
About 5,000 homes in San Diego could be subject to Measure A, though that number would shrink as owners find ways to avoid paying the tax. One way to avoid it — renting the vacant home out — is an explicit policy goal of Measure A.
Supporters say Measure A would help solve two problems: the shortage of housing and the city's budget deficit. People who own empty second homes will be incentivized to make those homes available to renters or homebuyers. And the revenue from the tax can support city services that would otherwise be cut.
Opponents say Measure A would impose an undue financial burden on homeowners and could lead to invasive enforcement tactics. They also point to a similar tax measure in San Francisco that a judge ruled unconstitutional — though the case is still pending on appeal.
By the numbers
San Diego's Office of the Independent Budget Analyst estimated Measure A would generate between $9.2 million and $21.4 million in the first year. That would make a significant dent in the city's structural budget deficit, which is forcing deep cuts to parks, libraries and arts organizations.
The campaign to oppose Measure A raised $814,765 this year, the vast majority of it coming from the California Association of Realtors. Realtors earn commissions from the sale of vacation homes in San Diego, and the tax could make those homes less attractive to buyers.
The campaign to support Measure A raised $102,385 from individuals, unions and other progressive organizations.
Looking ahead
If a majority of voters support Measure A, the tax would help future mayors and city councils avoid some budget cuts. But a legal battle could delay or derail the tax's implementation.
Most cities that have passed similar taxes have found they raise less revenue than initial estimates, and the revenue tends to decline as the years go on.
Counting the ballots
According to the County Registrar of Voters, the first returns available around 8 p.m. on election night only include mail-in ballots and vote center ballots received before Election Day.
After that, results on election night will include only the vote center ballots cast on Election Day. The Registrar continues to count remaining ballots and post returns until the election is certified one month later.
Here's everything you need to know about election security in San Diego County.
