Republican County Supervisor Jim Desmond is leading in the 48th congressional district race, with Marni von Wilpert in second place. The top two vote getters will advance to the general election in November. Desmond currently has 36% of the vote. Early results show Democrat Marni von Wilpert is in second place with 20%, but San Diego City Council member and Republican Kevin Patrick O'Neil is close behind with 10.6%.
This district was one of five congressional seats held by Republicans that Democrats targeted in 2025 with Proposition 50. That ballot measure changed the balance of voter registration in the district to give Democrats the advantage.
Looking ahead to November, the results indicate a runoff election between Republican Jim Desmond and one of the two leading Democrats is likely. This would be one of just a few competitive races nationwide that will decide control of the House of Representatives for the next two years.
Why it matters
If Democrats retake control of the House of Representatives, it would give them powerful tools to check the Trump Administration on key issues like immigration enforcement, foreign policy, and taxing and spending in annual budgets.
Democrats have promised to put a stop to federal immigration raids that have targeted cities in Democrat-controlled states. These raids came to San Diego roughly one year ago when federal agents descended on Buona Forchetta, a popular restaurant in the South Park neighborhood.
And San Diego’s Democratic delegation in Congress demanded oversight of Immigration and Customs Enforcement after multiple deadly shootings by federal agents in other cities.
Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-San Diego, said at the time that ICE is "a rogue paramilitary force" and called for the agency to be dismantled.
"They've lost any mandate for immigration enforcement, and they've lost all trust of the American people,” she said. "We won't stand by while ICE and Border Patrol act with such disregard for human rights, human life and the rule of law."
If Democrats control the House, they also have far more control over annual budgets like H.R. 1 or President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” that supercharged immigration enforcement, cut Affordable Care Act subsidies and Medicare and SNAP benefits, cut taxes for the wealthy, and is adding trillions to the national deficit.
Democrats in the House have also introduced resolutions to end the war in Iran and block arms sales to Israel, although neither have been put to the test with a floor vote.
By the numbers
California’s 48th Congressional District was one of the five Republican-held seats in California that was targeted by Prop 50. The balance of voter registration in the district changed from 28% Democrats and 42% Republicans — a 14-point advantage for Republicans — to 39% Democrats and 29% Republicans — a 10-point lead for Democrats.
As a result, Republican incumbent Darrell Issa decided not to run for reelection. This is the second time Issa has retired rather than run for re-election when success looked unlikely. He endorsed County Supervisor Jim Desmond as his replacement instead.
Several democrats decided to run in the district against Desmond, setting up a battle between these candidates to advance to the general in November. You can read KPBS’ profile of all the candidates who ran in the 48th in our Voter Hub.
Looking ahead
Heading into November, Desmond will likely have an advantage due to the balance of registered voters in the district. But Ross Pike, parliamentarian for the Democratic Club of Fallbrook, told CalMatters Desmond is a “formidable opponent” in April this year.
President Trump endorsed Desmond in April as well, writing on social media, “DESMOND WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
But the Trump endorsement isn’t necessarily a boost for candidates in California in the current political climate.
Public opinion research shows 59% of registered voters nationwide disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, according to daily surveys conducted by polling and analytics firm Civiqs. This is a higher disapproval rate than President Joe Biden had at any time during his presidency, according to Civiqs.
A wide majority, 71%, of California respondents disapproved as well, higher than almost every other state except Hawaii, Maryland and Vermont, and tied with Massachusetts.
In an election year that is considered by many a referendum on the Trump administration and its policies, affiliation with the unpopular president could hurt Republican candidates more than it helps.
Counting the ballots
According to the County Registrar of Voters, the first returns available around 8 p.m. on election night only include mail-in ballots and vote center ballots received before Election Day.
After that, results on election night will include only the vote center ballots cast on Election Day. The Registrar continues to count remaining ballots and post returns until the election is certified one month later.
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