S1: Welcome in San Diego , it's Jade Hindman. On today's show , the super El Nino weather pattern could bring one of the rainiest winters on record. We'll talk about what that means for your flood risk and how you can prepare. This is KPBS Midday Edition. Connecting our communities through conversation. So San Diego is notorious for its consistent weather , but that may change. The El Nino is continuing to intensify , and it's expected to be one of the strongest on record. So what does that mean for our weather? Well , I'm joined in studio by our weather expert , Alex Tardy. He's the founder of Weather Echo and a former meteorologist with the National Weather Service. He's here to break down what we know about the Super El Nino so far. Alex , welcome.
S2: Thanks for having me on.
S1: Glad to have you here finally in studio with me. Yes. Um , remind us what the El Nino is and how it works. Yeah.
S2: Yeah. So , number one with El Nino , it's not a storm. It's not rain. But it's a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. So it's where the water gets warm. Warmer than usual. Um , and that warmer than usual water can and often does affect our weather patterns and our storm systems in San Diego.
S1: So what is a typical El Nino winter pattern?
S2: So what we typically see is El Nino , the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean , opposite of the cooling , which is La Nina. We typically see it develop in the summer and fall. And what it'll do is bring the storm track of the jet stream a little bit further south. Instead of always going to Portland , Seattle and Northern California , it'll focus it more over California , shift it further south. So basically , the relationship is the warm ocean water in the tropics will affect our weather patterns here in Northern California by making the jet stream more focused on us.
S1: So we last spoke with you in June about El Nino and how it could shape our fall and winter this year. Has the forecast changed since then?
S2: Actually , the El Nino is so developed it's a little bit stronger than originally expected. And the prediction for the warmth along the equator for the magnitude of the El Nino , not the magnitude necessarily of rain or storms of the magnitude of El Nino itself. The warming is predicted to be record breaking as we go into the fall and winter. So basically at a level we hadn't seen before.
S1: So that means more rain.
S2: That could mean more rain. And that's the whole caveat. So when it comes with predicting the actual storms , the rain , the snow , the precipitation , it's not a 1 to 1 correlation and predicting something. Here we are in mid-August predicting something in December January. We have difficulty predicting past 2 to 3 weeks in general with weather. So that prediction is still iffy. But confidence is growing that California , even Southern California , will be in the direct path of a lot of these storms that will be influenced or basically enhanced and focused on California.
S1: You touched on this before. Forecasters have dubbed this a super El Nino. What makes this year remarkable over others?
S2: Yeah , we've only seen a couple El Ninos in terms of along the equator. The warming that's occurring. So El Nino itself is normal. It occurs every 3 to 5 years. But at this magnitude , even currently , we've only seen a handful of El Ninos 1982 , 83 , 97 , 98 and most recently 20 1516 that are this mature , this well developed , this evolved , as we can see on satellite in that area. And we certainly have not seen predictions , you know , from computer models , from artificial intelligence. We haven't seen predictions of this type of magnitude in the very strong range really ever before.
S1: We're talking about how this could impact San Diego , but how could the super El Nino , you know , flip temperatures across the country? Yeah.
S2: Yeah. El Nino has influence and impacts across the entire globe. Some areas are going to experience drought. Some areas are going to have more cold outbreaks in the United States itself. It tends to be a milder winter in general. So basically less Arctic air or less polar vortex coming down. But ironically , with all the clouds and the rain that we see in Southern California and Texas and the Gulf states , those areas tend to be average or even below average in temperature. So with all those clouds and rainy days , we tend to see cooler days overall in the winter.
S1: All right. Well , you know , here in California , climate scientists are warning of higher sea levels , coastal flooding because of this El Nino. Do you see that being the case , too?
S2: Well , so far , what El Nino has done is it's prevented a lot of hurricanes from forming in the Atlantic Ocean. So the wind energy that's already coming out of the El Nino warm waters is is basically inhibiting formation of tropical cyclones in Atlantic. On the other end , in the Pacific , it's enhancing them. And we've seen just last month a couple very strong tropical cyclones or hurricanes in the Pacific that sends up a swell from the south. And that's caused large waves and even beach erosion already. So indirectly , with the warmth of El Nino already starting to see some of those beach impacts , that'll really be noticeable when we start getting this train of storms that potentially will set up , especially especially in the middle to latter part of the winter , like December through February.
S1: What questions do you continue to have about El Nino conditions as this builds?
S2: Yeah , one of the main questions is , well , if you know so much about El Nino and you know that it's already there and it's going to be record breaking. Why don't you know that San Diego is going to have 30in of rain or flooding , or the worst storms we've ever seen in our life? And the answer is , you know , it's not a 1 to 1 correlation by any means. We've even seen El Ninos in the past , like 2015 , 16 that are dry now. Did the atmosphere get affected? Did more storms impact the West Coast? Yes , absolutely. That year , in 20 1516. But they went further north into Seattle and Portland. So basically it wasn't a strike , it was a ball , but it wasn't far away. So the certainty of , you know , El Nino is definitely there , but that does not guarantee we'll see excessive or extreme rainfall even here in San Diego.
S1: But someone might somewhere.
S2: Yeah , that's a good point. So that's fair to say that along the West Coast I know the West Coast is big , but in reality globally it's not that big. And with the strongest jet stream in the world , always in the Pacific Ocean , where we see wind speeds of 200mph. Sometimes , you know , you aggravate that a little bit and you cause that to be a little more focused and a little more concentrated and shift a little further south. Yeah. Someone will. Um , my bets would be central California right now would be the epicenter , central and northern. But that could be a little slightly further north and a little slightly south. In a perfect scenario , the entire West coast just gets fanned with storms and they're evenly distributed. But we know Mother Nature is not perfect like that.
S1: No no no no. Well , I really appreciate it. I've been speaking with Alex Tardy , founder of Weather Echo and former meteorologist for the National Weather Service. Alex , thanks again.
S2: Thank you.
S1: So , given what we know about the Super El Nino , how is the city of San Diego preparing for the potential impact? I'm joined now by David Garrick , City Hall reporter for the San Diego Union-Tribune. David , it's good to have you here in studio two.
S3: Thanks for having me.
S1: So , you know , this thing is hard to predict , but better safe than sorry. City officials announced a preparation campaign for the Super El Nino on Tuesday. What are the main takeaways from that plan?
S3: It's certainly a broad campaign that they're going to be clearing storm channels more aggressively than they ever had before , particularly focused on the areas affected by the January 2024 flood. Um , they're encouraging residents to assess their property , to create a plan for an emergency , to explore buying insurance. And they're also going to send 7000 mailers to properties that they know are actually dangerous based on slope and location and location in a floodplain. So it's a pretty aggressive plan. They also have set up a working group of city department heads and regional agencies that would deal with this kind of thing , so I would call them prepared. But I don't know if you really can be prepared. And as we heard earlier , we don't know how bad it's going to be.
S1: And again , in January 2024 , we had that flooding which devastated parts of southeastern San Diego. remind us of the damage we saw then and the impact on the residents of those areas.
S3: No , people lost their homes and they were homeless , living in hotels for weeks and months. There's still a lot of outstanding lawsuits against the city that have not been settled yet or dealt with. It was a horrendous situation. City officials have characterized that as one flash of water that was very unusual. But as we know from climate change , the unusual sort of starting to become the usual. Hmm.
S1: Hmm. Besides clearing storm channels , how else is the city looking to mitigate damage an already vulnerable areas?
S3: Yeah , I mean , that's the main way to do it , but also asking residents to assess their own property. And if you have a slope or you have a property that would be vulnerable to mudslides , you can do prep work of that kind. Also being ready to evacuate if you're in a neighborhood , I guess anyone should be ready to evacuate , but particularly if you're in a neighborhood that is considered vulnerable. Um , but I think self-assessment is another key. The city has stressed that they want residents to be part of the solution. They're going to do what they can , but without help from residents , the city might be in a vulnerable position that they can't fix.
S1: And Alex , since you're still here , this , this all of this weather change could start to happen. When when might these these precautions be necessary? Yeah.
S2: Yeah. So right now we're in the thick of summer , right. So it's muggy. We've got the heat wave coming in. So we're still going to have Santa Ana season. But it looks like , you know , the onset of storms with the initial storms would be more likely in late November December. Now the wildcard is you typically do see a storm in October. And most likely that would be something that is beneficial , you know , because of fire weather situation. So I really think , you know , late in the fall or early winter probably December. Interesting.
S1: Interesting. All right. And so with that , David , one thing the city is recommending for residents and property owners is flood insurance. So why is that important?
S3: Yeah , I think most people may not realize that the insurance they have , the homeowner's insurance they have doesn't include flood or and a lot of apartment owners don't realize that. And if you're on the ground floor of an apartment or if you're in a single family residential home , you are vulnerable to flooding , and if you don't have the proper insurance , that can be , you know , devastating life impact the city because they're part of the National Flood Insurance Program. You qualify for a 15% discount and they've urged people to go to flood smart gov to look up what insurance they can get and the parameters of what they're eligible for because they think that won't prevent damage , but at least it'll help residents maybe not have their life devastated. Like some of the folks in southeastern San Diego two years ago who really , you know , some of them still aren't recovering. Their lives have not gotten back to where they were from before those rains are there.
S1: There are. There's a website that the city did create. What resources should people go to if they want to learn more? Yeah.
S3: Yeah. That's great. If you go to the city website , it's the go to the San Diego City web page. It's the El Nino page. It's got an enormous amount of information , like how to prepare for your pet and how to , you know , by certain supplies. Um , it's translated into nine different languages other than English , just to make sure that all the neighborhoods in San Diego people at least have some basic information. Not all of it's translated , but a lot of it is. Um , no. It's great , it's great. How to know what to do if you have to evacuate , how to assess your property , and also give you a summary of what the city is doing. Maybe you can figure out whether a storm channel in your neighborhood is a dangerous one in the city. Is clearing it or not clearing it?
S1: Sounds like they've covered their bases with that. What else are you watching out for as the city prepares for this super El Nino?
S3: Well , you know , the bigger context is that the city has an $8 billion infrastructure deficit , and they don't can't afford to fix the roads. They can't afford to fix bridges , they can't afford to fix storm channels. And so this really comes at a bad time. And as we know , with climate change , there's probably going to be more and more pressure on the city's aging infrastructure , not less. In San Diego is in a somewhat unusual position compared to other cities , because most of the city was built in the 50s , 60s and 70s. And the useful life of this infrastructure is typically 50 years. So San Diego's infrastructure is is a past due to be replaced , and it hasn't really happened. And they don't have the money to do it.
S1: Well , we'll stay locked in on your reporting. I've been speaking with David Garrick. He's a city hall reporter for the City of San Diego and for the San Diego Union-Tribune. Rather , I should say , of course , we'll link to his story and any resources mentioned on our page. KPBS midday. David , thanks so much for being here. To Alex. Thanks to you as well. Thanks.
S3: Thanks.
S2: Thank you.
S1: That's our show for today. I'm your host , Jade Hindman. Thanks for tuning in to Midday Edition. Be sure to have a great day on purpose , everyone.
