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California voters could cast the deciding votes this November that flip control of the U.S. House. If Democrats win a majority, they could block President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, grill his cabinet officials and launch investigations into his administration.
The road to a House majority runs through California. Democrats are on offense after voters last year approved new congressional maps that forced nine incumbent Republicans into more left-leaning districts. Three are designed to flip, and two others favor Democrats.
Most national investment will focus on two remaining tossup races — one in the Central Valley and one in San Diego.
Several incumbent Democrats also face challenges from younger, progressive candidates who say it’s time for new leadership. While incumbents traditionally have the fundraising advantage, newcomers are betting that voters want change.
Before the November election, California’s open primary system narrows each race to the top two vote-getters regardless of party — meaning many contested congressional races pit Democrats against each other.
Here are the races CalMatters is watching closely before the June 2 primary.
Congressional District 22: Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern counties
In the Central Valley, two Democrats are fighting for the chance to take on Rep. David Valadao, the vulnerable Republican incumbent whose only election loss came in 2018 during Trump’s first term.
As the sole remaining GOP congressmember who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6, Valadao brands himself as a moderate despite frequently voting in line with his party. He cast the deciding vote for Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which cuts an estimated $1 trillion from Medicaid over 10 years while extending tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
Both Democratic opponents are attacking that vote as a “betrayal” of the nearly two-thirds of his constituents who rely on Medicaid for health insurance and SNAP for food assistance.
Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a physician who has spent most of her career in hospitals and clinics that rely on Medi-Cal, has positioned herself as a moderate willing to buck her party. She was stripped of a notable committee position for refusing to support an anti-oil and gas bill. She’s backed by powerful labor groups including SEIU California and the California Labor Federation.
But Bains has faced stiff competition from Randy Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee running as a progressive with support from the Working Families Party, the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Sen. Bernie Sanders. The son of Mexican immigrants, Villegas emphasizes his working-class roots and boasts that his campaign doesn’t take corporate PAC money, unlike both of his opponents.
Valadao leads in fundraising, with close to $2.9 million on hand as of April 15. Villegas trails with nearly $719,000, while Bains has about $700,500.
Congressional District 48: San Diego and Riverside counties
Further south, Democrats are jockeying to flip a Republican seat vacated by Rep. Darrell Issa, who announced his retirement in March after Prop. 50 redrew his district.
Issa endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a moderate Republican who Democratic strategists say will be tough to beat given his weaker ties to Trump.
Two Democrats have emerged as frontrunners: San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Obama aide who has lost to Issa twice before. Palm Springs businessman Brandon Riker is also competing for the seat after shifting districts post-Prop. 50.
Von Wilpert and Campa-Najjar have traded sharp criticisms. She called him anti-LGBTQ for questioning whether she could win votes outside gay-friendly Palm Springs; he accused her of racism for questioning his name changes and residence.
Riker leads in fundraising with about $1.08 million cash on hand, followed closely by Desmond with about $1.06 million. Von Wilpert has about $545,800, while Campa-Najjar has about $456,400.
The next Nancy Pelosi?
Congressional District 11: San Francisco
After nearly 40 years in Congress, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced last November she would retire at the end of her current term. She has declined to formally endorse a successor.
Three Democrats are now vying to replace her as San Francisco’s next member of Congress, a position that the winner could hold for decades given the city’s liberal bent.
State Sen. Scott Wiener leads in name recognition and fundraising, touting his record of passing controversial bills like those to speed up housing construction by bypassing state environmental regulations. He has staked his campaign on legislative accomplishments and promises to bring that same diligence to Congress.
Wiener caused controversy by initially refusing to call the Gaza conflict “genocide,” then reversing course with a lengthy explanation on social media. He subsequently stepped down as leader of the Legislative Jewish Caucus. By San Francisco standards, he is rather moderate. He has about $2.62 million in cash on hand.
Saikat Chakrabarti, a former tech entrepreneur who made billions as an engineer at Stripe, is marketing himself as a political outsider who can shake up Washington — much as he did running Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s 2018 upset campaign and serving as her chief of staff. He’s largely self-funding and has contributed nearly $5 million already.
Trailing both is Connie Chan, the progressive San Francisco supervisor who appears to have informal support from Pelosi herself, plus endorsements from U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff and former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown. She only has $156,600 in cash on hand with only a month until primary day.
A battle of the ages
Congressional District 7: Sacramento, El Dorado and San Joaquin counties
While Pelosi decided it was time to step aside, some of her peers have not. One exciting race is in the 7th Congressional District, where incumbent Democrat Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, faces Mai Vang, 41, a left-leaning Sacramento City councilmember.
Vang is Matsui’s first serious challenger in the 20 years since Matsui succeeded her late husband in office. She is supported by the progressive Working Families Party and has criticized Matsui for her lack of availability to constituents and accepting donations from corporate PACs and wealthy donors. Vang has about $315,000 in cash on hand.
Matsui has insisted that experience and institutional knowledge are critical as Democrats try to get as much federal funding as possible in the second Trump administration, saying it’s a bad time to throw out expertise. She has about $1.05 million.
The formerly solidly blue district primarily encompassed the city of Sacramento until it was redrawn under Prop. 50 to include more rural and conservative areas in El Dorado and San Joaquin counties, though it is still considered a solid Democratic seat.
Congressional District 4: Napa, Sonoma, Sacramento, Placer, Sutter, Yuba, Yolo, Lake and Colusa counties
Another longtime incumbent, Rep. Mike Thompson also faces a younger progressive and political newcomer.
Eric Jones, 35, a philanthropist and former venture capitalist, is centering his campaign on the affordability crisis. He casts Thompson, 75, as out-of-touch with the financial struggles of younger generations on housing and retirement.
Nonetheless, Thompson earned the endorsement of the California Young Democrats, as well as from the California Democratic Party, SEIU California and the California Federation of Labor Unions.
Jones seeded his campaign with about $350,000 of his own money and has more than $1.45 million cash on hand, largely from big-dollar donors. Thompson has $2.56 million.
More races to watch
Congressional District 3: Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer and Nevada counties
Democratic incumbent Rep. Ami Bera moved to this district after voters passed Prop. 50 with the goal of unseating Rep. Kevin Kiley. But Kiley decided to run in Bera’s former district, and days later he left the GOP to become an independent.
Bera faces two Democrats and two Republicans.
Democrat Heidi Hall, a Nevada County supervisor, launched her campaign before the gerrymandering when the district was far more conservative and Kiley was her opponent. Hall said she was frustrated by Bera’s blatant political opportunism. She criticized him for not living in the new district (he lives in Elk Grove) and lamented how he, with the incumbency advantage, had bigfooted what would’ve been a clear path to victory for her post-redistricting.
Democrat Chris Bennett, a disabled Army veteran running as a progressive prioritizing housing affordability and reforming campaign finance, also switched to run in this district.
The two Republicans are Robb Tucker, a small business owner and fellow Nevada County supervisor and perennial candidate Christine Bish.
Congressional District 6: Sacramento, Placer and Yolo counties
Bera’s departure from the 6th District prompted a flurry of Democrats to run in it, including former state Sen. Richard Pan, a pediatrician, the presumed frontrunner. He faces Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, former Planned Parenthood executive director Lauren Babb-Tomlinson and West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, all Democrats.
Kiley is also competing for this seat as an independent.
Congressional District 14: Alameda County
The race for former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s seat was already crowded before his alleged sexual abuse was reported in early April. State Sen. Aisha Wahab is endorsed by the California Democratic Party and has emerged as the frontrunner.
She faces five other Democrats in the safely Democratic district:
- Victor Aguilar, a San Leandro city councilmember
- Matt Ortega, a Democratic digital strategist
- Rakhi Singh, an educator and nonprofit attorney
- Melissa Hernandez, a healthcare services director
- Carin Elam, a businesswoman and nonprofit director
Voters in this district will go to the polls again June 16 for a special election to fill the remainder of Swalwell’s term, following his resignation. Some Democrats are rallying behind a caretaker candidate who is not in the race to take over next year, Democratic former state Sen. Bob Wieckowski.
This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.
