President Biden had a young people problem. Vice President Harris may not.
In a new poll from the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics, Harris holds a 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters ages 18 to 29.
The poll, released Tuesday, shows Harris ahead of Trump, 61% to 30%, in a match-up that includes third-party candidates. Among only registered voters, Harris’ lead drops slightly, but Trump still trails her by 23 points.
The findings represent a marked improvement for Democrats since Harvard's spring youth poll, which found Biden ahead of Trump by 13 percentage points among likely voters and just seven percentage points among registered voters under 30. At the time, young, left-leaning Americans around the country told NPR they were unhappy with their presidential options.
"This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch," John Della Volpe, the polling director of the Institute of Politics, said in a statement. "Gen Z and young millennials' heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024."
It’s a promising sign for Harris, who is banking on high levels of youth support. Voters under 30 played a decisive role in several key battleground states with tight margins in 2020 and overall voted for Biden by a 24-point margin nationwide.
A big shift in engagement
The latest poll, which surveyed more than 2,000 individuals under 30 from Sept. 4 through Sept. 16, underscores a noticeable shift in engagement after Harris took over the ticket. Political strategists point to spikes in voter registrations in the week Biden dropped out of the race, with the highest numbers coming from young Americans, especially women and women of color.
While it’s unclear who those individuals may ultimately vote for, these are groups that tend to vote for Democrats. And that interest, particularly among young women, is reflected in the latest Harvard youth poll.
In the spring poll, young female likely voters sided with Biden over Trump by 22 points, but in this latest survey, their support for Harris is even more pronounced, with a margin of 47 points. Harris also increased support among young men, but at comparatively lower rates. Biden held just a five-point lead in the spring. Under Harris, it’s risen to 17 points.
What’s more, an increasing amount of young Democrats also say they will definitely vote this fall, moving from 66% in the spring to 74% in this latest survey. Republicans have less interest — in the spring poll, 64% committed to voting, versus 60% now.
Roughly a third of independents said they would definitely vote, which is a drop from four years ago at this time.
Meme hype may not translate to votes
Linked with Harris’s rise in enthusiasm following the launch of her presidential campaign was a series of viral internet memes remixing her past comments and speeches. It’s a style the campaign went on to embrace in its digital organizing and social media.
Despite the likes and shares, the poll found that half of young Americans feel that memes about Harris had no effect on their opinion of her, and six in 10 also said memes about Trump had no effect on their views of him.
On the issues, the poll found that young Americans continue to trust Trump at higher rates on topics relating to the economy, national security, immigration and the Israel-Hamas war — but his edge is razor thin at just a few percentage points.
Harris holds wide leads on issues relating to climate change, abortion and education. And despite trailing Trump on certain issues, Harvard researchers argue that Harris has increased trust among voters overall, compared to Biden.
“It's pretty much across the board on every issue,” said Harvard student Anil Cacodcar, who chairs the Harvard Public Opinion Project. “We're seeing a move toward Harris.”
Copyright 2024 NPR
